2014 NFL picks against the spread: Week 10

After two, let's say "less than stellar" weeks of picks against the spread, I at least came back to .500 in Week 10, going 6-6. I had a couple of close calls, like Cleveland coming up just short of covering against Tampa Bay, but also had some crazy misses, like giving the points in picking Seattle to cover a 14.5 point spread.

A .500 week keeps me exactly even for the year as well, now 27-27 on the year.

Here are my fifth week of against the spread, Week 10 in the season:

2014 Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Buffalo Bills - The Bills could be without Sammy Watkins, which would be a big loss. The Chiefs have not always looked good this year, but have still won three-in-a-row and are second in the AFC West. With this being just a one point spread, I'll give the points. Pick: Chiefs (-1)

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm a little surprised this is favoring the Falcons, especially since this is in Tampa. A lot of people seem to like the Falcons' offense, but it is not like they have been doing anything on defense to stop someone. I think I am going to be going against the popular choice here, but I am taking the points. Pick: Buccaneers (+2.5)

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10) - You know by now, I do not like big points. I took a shot with that 14.5 spread last week and it bit me. A ten point spread here has me worried, but the Titans really have not looked good lately. The Ravens may have lost their last two, but the Titans have as well. Basically, I'm talking myself into laying the points here and going with the favorites. I don't like it, but I'm going to do it. Pick: Ravens (-10)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at New York Jets - The Jets are bad this year, both straight up and against the spread. They have covered just once, somehow against New England, and have not looked like a team capable of slowing the juggernaut that has been the Steelers as of late. I actually thought this line would be a little bigger, at least in the 5.5 range. I don't think Ben Roethlisberger puts up another six touchdown pass performance, but he should be able to win by more than four. Pick: Steelers (-4)

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5) - The 49ers are not as good a team as was expected this year, and, while neither are the Saints, New Orleans is 3-0 in the Superdome this season, and have won their last two contests straight up and are 3-0 in their last three against the spread. At 5.5 points, I will still give the points and take New Orleans at home, but if the line was any higher, I would probably look at taking the points with the 49ers. Pick: Saints (-5.5)

Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (London) - This line, and pick, are assuming Tony Romo is playing. Some places still have this game off the board, simply because no one is sure the status of Romo. If he is able to play, the Cowboys should be able to cover this spread, though the Jaguars are a better team than their straight up record suggests. I'm going to give the points here with the assumption that Romo is playing. Pick: Cowboys (-7)

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-3) - This game should be close, probably closer than people realize. A lot will be made of the return of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for the Lions, but Miami's defense has already proven it can get after the quarterback on every play, and Brent Grimes is not afraid of going up against a big wide receiver.  The Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread during their current three-game winning streak, while Detroit, on a similar three-game winning streak, are 1-2. That trend should continue this week. Pick: Dolphins (+3)

Denver Broncos (-11.5) at Oakland Raiders - Denver is still among the best teams in the league and Oakland is...well...Oakland. At home as underdogs with an 11.5 spread, however, is probably too big a number. I will take the points with Oakland to win against the spread, even if I expect the Broncos to win straight up. Pick: Raiders (+11.5)

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) - Arizona is good, but in the division games this year, so are the Rams. Straight up, I take the Cardinals at home to win. Against the spread, however, I think the Rams are good enough to cover. l would feel better about this pick if the line were at seven, but even at 6.5, I'll take the points. Pick: Rams (+6.5).

New York Giants at Seattle (-10) - Seattle is no longer unbeatable at home, but the Giants are not looking good having lost their last three games to fall two games below .500 and three games out of the division lead. Ten points is a really, really big number, though. I'll take the points and hope I don't regret it if Seattle suddenly hits their rhythm. Pick: Giants (+10)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7) - This is going to be an offense filled game, and the Bears' offense has not been exuding confidence as of late. The Packers, meanwhile, will happily take the game to their NFC North rivals, all but ending the Bears' postseason hopes. Pick: Packers (-7)

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - Carolina has the 20th ranked passing attack and 26th ranked rushing offense. The Eagles are 5th in passing and 8th in rushing. This is going to be all about the Eagles' offense, and the Panthers probably cannot keep up. There's a chance I regret it, but I am giving the points and hoping the Mark Sanchez led Eagles can keep up the explosiveness. Pick: Eagles (-6.5)