Well, I am no longer .500 on the season for my picks against the spread. Week 11 will mark the sixth week I have been doing these, and, after an amazing 11-3 opening week, I entered last week at 27-27. Pulling off a 5-7 record in Week 10 is not exactly going to break Las Vegas.
On the year, I am now 32-34, or a 48.5% rate of correctly picking against the spread. Let's hope I can improve upon that this week.
Here are my picks against Vegas. You can find all of the current betting lines at the SB Nation odds page.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1) - This game opened with Chicago favored by 4.5 and has fallen all the way down to just a one point spread. At 4.5, I might have been tempted to take the points and grab Minnesota. At one point, the Bears, at home, should be able to grab the win. Pick: Bears (-1)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3) - A lot of people seem to be on the Houston side of this line. Part of it comes from the fact that the Texas are coming off their bye while I think the other part is just a general distrust of the Brows being as good as they have been so far this year. Aria Foster is banged up at best, and is listed as questionable, and, even with the bye week, Houston is still getting used to Ryan Mallett under center. I think Cleveland is a much better team than Houston at this point, and I am actually a little surprised that it's even a three point, home advantage line. Pick: Browns (-3)
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Carolina Panthers - This game actually opened with the Panthers favored by 2.5, and has slowly moved to the Falcons by two. I think this ends up being really close, and, even though I took the Falcons straight up, I'm going to take the points here. Pick: Panthers (+2)
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7) - The Saints have not been as good at home this year as they have in previous seasons, but they are still being bet like they have been. This line keeps getting bigger and bigger, having opened at 5.5 for the Saints and working it to as high as 7.5. It does not help that the Bengals have cooled off lately. At the end of the day, I think this game ends up being a shootout, but that the Bengals are in the game. Pick: Bengals (+7)
Denver Broncos (-9.5) at St. Louis Rams - St. Louis has played well this year against teams that should have obliterated them. This is set up to be another game like that. The problem is, it's Peyton Manning. I'm going to trust Manning to be able to deliver in a dome in November, even with this giant number. Pick: Broncos (-9.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New York Giants - The 49ers are inconsistent this year. The Giants have no defense, and the offense is not quite right. I don't really know how to pick this game, but it probably is best to go with an inconsistent team that has the potential for a high powered offense rather than the team that cannot seem to stop anyone this year. Pick: 49ers (-4)
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (Even) - It's even right now, after bouncing back and forth between both teams being slightly favored. I've got the Seahawks straight up, so I guess I have them here as well. Pick: Seahawks (Even)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - Drew Stanton has played well when needed this year, and the Cardinals are going to need him a lot the remainder of the season. Against the Lions, it could be a long day for Arizona, however. Pick: Lions (+1)
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) - I think Philly is set for the upset here, picking them straight up. Even if they cannot pull off the win, they should keep it within 4.5 points. Pick: Eagles (+4.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - You do not see the Patriots as underdogs very often, but these two teams are pretty even at this point, with Indy getting the home field advantage three points. I think this game is probably close, but I will give New England the points (as dumb as that sounds), and hope for a four point win from the Colts. Pick: Colts (-3)