The NFL Draft is still two-and-a-half months away, with minor things like the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency between now and then. That does not mean we cannot predict what may happen when the 2014 selection meeting finally rolls around.
SB Nation's Mocking the Draft did exactly that yesterday, posting their latest 2014 NFL Mock Draft, this week posted by Matthew Fairburn. And, Fairburn did not hold back in this mock, starting off with a trade for the number one overall pick. Fairburn sees the Cleveland Browns using their two first round selections to move up to the Houston Texans' number one spot, where Cleveland welcomes Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel.
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As we wait for you to pick your jaw up off the floor, thinking of Cleveland effectively using the 4th and 26th picks to get Johnny Football, Fairburn's rationale does make some sense. In recent weeks, ESPN's Mel Kiper, Jr. has repeatedly stated that, from what he is hearing from talking to NFL sources, Manziel is the consensus top quarterback in this year's Draft. Now, whether or not you believe Kiper is a different argument, but Fairburn uses Kiper's statement, as well as the apparent desire of the Browns to land Manziel, as the basis for seeing this trade as a possibility.
With the first curveball of the Draft thrown with the first overall selection, Fairburn comes back with another off-speed pitch at the number two spot. This time, instead of either trading down or potentially selecting a player at a position like a wide receiver or offensive tackle, the St. Louis Rams select UCF quarterback Blake Bortles, effectively ending the Sam Bradford era in the Gateway to the West.
The third overall selection brings us back to something that seems a little more familiar, as the Jacksonville Jaguars select Teddy Bridgewater, quarterback from Louisville. With three picks complete, the top three quarterbacks are off the board, while a player widely considered the top prospect in the Draft is still sitting in the hypothetical green room.
Well, that is until the Houston Texans, with the fourth overall pick, the first of their two received in the trade with Cleveland, select South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. It's clearly a best player available selection, given the weakness of the Texans is not their pass rush, with players like J.J. Watt already stalking the line and Whitney Mercilus able to rush the passer if Antonio Smith were to leave via free agency this year. However, adding Clowney at four is obviously a great value, and the Texans do have a second first round pick to address the offense in this scenario. (Spoiler alert: The draft safety Jimmie Ward at 26 - so zero offensive first round players to the Texans in 2014.)
The Oakland Raiders pick fifth this year, and despite all the craziness ahead of them, sit still and wait to see how the smoke clears. With the three quarterbacks and Clowney off the board, the Raiders also have to look best player available, and while a pick like Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews could be a direction Oakland looks, they instead pickup Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, giving whomever ends up being their starting quarterback a weapon on the outside.
Jumping a little bit, Fairburn decides to crush my dreams. If you have heard me talk about the Draft, I am absolutely infatuated with Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans. I know there is little, if any, chance of the Miami Dolphins landing Evans, and the team clearly has to do other things like address the offensive line, but I would absolutely love it if somehow they managed to do it. Instead, Evans is selected in the Minnesota Vikings' eighth position, but wait, this is Fairburn's second trade of the projection - and of course it's the New York Jets coming up to select Evans. In compensation, the Jets send Minnesota picks 18 and 49, and force me to watch the player I covet wear green.
Continuing with the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills select ninth, with both top tackles, Auburn's Greg Robinson and Texas A&M's Matthews, sitting on the board. In this case, they select Matthews.
Jumping all the way to the Dolphins' 19th overall selection, Fairburn has Miami selecting Notre Dame offensive lineman Zack Martin. Of the pick, Fairburn writes:
The Dolphins aren't likely to be picky about how they upgrade the offensive line. Zack Martin is a versatile player who could slide in at tackle or guard for Miami. After a strong senior season at Notre Dame and a good showing at the Senior Bowl, Martin seems to have secured a spot at the end of the first round.
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Martin is not a bad pick at all for Miami, especially with players like Matthews, Robinson (11th to Tennessee Titans), as well as tight end Eric Ebron from North Carolina (10th to Detroit Lions), and wide receivers Evans and Marqise Lee from USC (13th to the Rams), all off the board. The Dolphins do have to solve their offensive line problems, and Martin does add versatility, at a first round draft pick level.
There are a few prospects I would at least consider over Martin who would still be on the board in this scenario. Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosley, Louisville safety Calvin Pryor, and Texas Tech tight end Jace Amaro are all still on the board, and could be worthy of consideration. Of the three, Pryor probably makes the most sense, given the money already tied into the Dolphins linebacker position and the emergence of Charles Clay as the starting tight end for Miami. Drafting Pryor could give the Dolphins a fierce tandem between him and Reshad Jones as the last line of the defense.
Martin is a good choice, and not one I would complain about if it's the way new Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey went with the 19th pick, but Pryor would be a good selection as well.
To round out the AFC East, the New England Patriots, with the 29th pick, select Amaro, according to Fairburn's latest scenario.
