The Case for Chad Henne and the Long Ball

Last night there was a discussion about Miami Dolphins' quarterback Chad Henne andd his inability to throw the long ball.  He was described as "insanely inaccurate on the deep ball," here on the site by Joel311.  In fact, this comment by Truth Warrior is what made me think about this post:

So now Henne is an above average QB, right?

Please put up some stats of Henne’s completion percentage beyond 15 yards. He still can’t put the ball in a receivers hands in full stride. He’s done it 2 times that I remember. Once to Ted Ginn and once to Brian Hartline. Two completions do not a career make. Does anyone think that the Pats, Jets, Steelers, etc. are concerned about Hennes deep game. He doesn’t have one. He remains a limited player in a game that requires a full compliment of talent. Reggie Bush was a surprise, I was very impressed with his game. His offense was probably the reason the running game and Hennes passing was successful. You are sadly mistaken if you think that Henne is the answer.

So, I'm going to do exactly as Truth Warrior asked.  Let's take a look at Chad Henne's 2010 numbers and compare them to the other AFC East quarterbacks.

We'll start with passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage and build from there.

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	50	67	277	74.6	4.13	28	2	0	0	91.4
Tom Brady	56	71	512	78.9	7.21	50	3	0	0	110.8
Mark Sanchez	42	64	178	65.6	2.78	15	0	0	0	69.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	55	77	305	71.4	3.96	65	4	1	0	90.0

Basically, from the "Passes behind the line of scrimmage" category, we can see that the New England Patriots are freaks, gaining 512 yards, or a 7.21 yards per attempt average, from behind the line of scrimmage passes.  Henne comes in second in the yards per attempt and in quarterback average.  He also has the second highest completion percentage behind Brady. 

But, this isn't what we want to discuss.

So, we move on to passes thrown 1-10 yards.

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	182	280	1,691	65.0	6.04	57	10	10	0	78.4
Tom Brady	201	283	1,918	71.0	6.78	46	18	0	0	110.7
Mark Sanchez	161	272	1,389	59.2	5.11	37	5	3	0	74.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	134	207	1,283	64.7	6.20	43	4	5	0	78.2

Again, Brady is in his own realm.  He out gained Henne by three hundred yards, who out gained Sanchez by another three hundred yards.  Henne was also second in completion percentage and quarterback rating behind Brady.  He did lead the four quarterbacks in interceptions at this range, doubling his closest competitor, 10 interceptions to Fitzpatrick's 5.

Now, we are getting to the longer range passes, with the 11-20 yard category.

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	60	103	1,019	58.3	9.89	31	2	6	0	74.0
Tom Brady	52	101	930	51.5	9.21	45	9	2	0	104.8
Mark Sanchez	61	111	1,210	55.0	10.90	67	6	6	0	88.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	52	101	918	51.5	9.09	45	10	7	0	87.0

Henne jumps into the lead in completion percentage at the 11-20 yard range.  He trails Sanchez by two hundred yards gained herre, and he is third in QB rating, mostly due to his low touchdown numbers here.  He also is tied with Fitzpatrick for the second highest interception count, one behind Sanchez's seven.

For the 21-30 yard range:

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	6	24	174	25.0	7.25	34	1	1	0	74.0
Tom Brady	9	17	312	52.9	18.35	65	3	0	0	137.9
Mark Sanchez	9	30	269	30.0	8.97	41	5	1	0	90.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	37	246	21.6	6.65	45	3	2	0	59.3

Henne falls to third in this range for both completion percentage and passer rating, behind the ridiculous numbers of Brady. Although Brady only took 17 shots between 21- and 30-yards, Henne's longest pass was just 34 yards; in the 21-30 yard category that's just sad.

As the ball travels further through the air, Henne's numbers go down some more. For the 31-40 yard range:

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	2	13	86	15.4	6.62	46	0	2	0	15.1
Tom Brady	5	13	225	38.5	17.31	79	3	0	0	125.8
Mark Sanchez	4	16	171	25.0	10.69	49	0	2	0	32.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	6	16	248	37.5	15.50	54	2	0	0	125.0

This is probably the range Henne has the most difficulty with; some of it may be Henne, but a part of it is probably also the lack of a deep threat last season, and the conservative nature of former offensive coordinator Dan Henning. Fitzpatricck suddenly springs to life on the deep ball, here, finishing just behind Brady in completion percentage, touchdowns, and passer rating.  Henne's bring up the rear across the board here, with an anorexic 15.4 completion percentage.

And the final category is the 41+ yard range.  Hene acquits himself well here:

Quarterback	Completions	Attempts	Yards	Completion %	YPA	Long	TD	INT	Sack	Rating
Chad Henne	1	3	54	33.3	18.00	54	0	0	0	81.9
Tom Brady	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.00
Mark Sanchez	1	13	74	7.7	5.69	74	1	1	0	44.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	39.6

For the longest pass category, Henne beats everyone in just about every passing category, with Sanchez claiming the passing yardage lead with this one 74-yards pass.

To get a better understanding of the accuracy of each quarterback, consider the following chart and graph:

Quarterback	Behind Line of Scrimmage	1-10 yards	11-20 yards	21-30 yards	31-40 yards	41+ yards
Chad Henne	74.6%	65.0%	58.3%	25.0%	15.4%	33.3%
Tom Brady	78.9%	71.0%	51.5%	52.9%	38.5%	0.0%
Mark Sanchez	65.6%	59.2%	55.0%	30.0%	25.0%	7.7%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	71.4%	64.7%	51.5%	21.6%	37.5%	0.0%

What should be plainly obvious is, Chad Henne is right in the middle of the pack with the rest of the AFC East.  Sure, Tom Brady, a future Hall of Famer, is often the top quarterback in the division at each range, but Henne is often the second best.  He does fall behind Mark Sanchez at the 21-30 yard and 31-40 yard mark, but he's still performing as a average quarterback. I wouldn't categorize Henne's 2010 performance as "insanely inaccurate on the deep ball" - but maybe I just need to wake up and stop looking at the actual numbers Henne puts up.

We have become so accustomed to hating Chad Henne that we are often blind to the fact that he is a solid quarterback.  When you take into account that 2010 was a "horrible" year for Henne, the fact that he is still right in the middle of the AFC East quarterbacks becomes even more impressive.  

Will Henne perform at Brady's level?  Probably not.  But, could he out perform Mark Sanchez, who has led the Jets to the AFC Championship game each of the last two year?  He already does.  

With the addition of Reggie Bush, and Brandon Marshall and Henne working to repair their dysfunctional relationship, Henne's potential could be reached this year.

Hopefully.