So I'm reading through some mock drafts on Sunday morning when I come across this - a first round mock draft competition that is held among people considered "draft experts." It's hosted by "The Huddle Report" and includes the likes of some of the most well-known internet mock drafts on the net - including Charley Casserly, Clark Judge, Mel Kiper, Todd Mcshay, Don Banks, Scott Wright, Jay Glazer, Matt Mosley, and Vic Carruci, as well as some of the more well-known NFL Mock Draft websites.
The scoring of the mock drafts seems simple - you get 1 point for listing a player in your one round mock draft that gets drafted in the first round; and you get an additional 2 points if you correctly predict which team will select that player. Being the curious guy I am, I decided to score my own mock drafts from the past two seasons. And, apparently, I'm as much of a draft expert as any of the "professionals."
My final 2008 mock draft, which you can see here, graded out with a score of 50. Last year's winners, a guy from Fantasy Football Toolbox and a guy from The Huddle Report, scored a 45. That's right - yours truly would have won last year's one round mock draft competition.
My final 2007 mock draft, which you can see here, graded out with a score of 52. That score tied me for 3rd place with Jay Glazer and a guy from NFL Answers. Clark Judge was the '07 winner, with a score of 55.
So what's my point here? No - it's not just to toot my own horn (though that's a nice little perk). It's to point out that anybody - and I mean anybody - can put together an accurate 1st round mock draft. Just because somebody is on TV or is part of a large website doesn't mean they are "experts" - no matter what Mel Kiper would like you to believe. The bottom line is that most of these "draft experts" have no more knowledge than any of us. They just have access - access to game film, to agents, to coaches, and to players - that us in the general public do not.
Therefore, any time you read an "expert" mock draft, take that info with a grain of salt. They really don't have a better chance of being accurate with their predictions than you or I do.
Oh - and I have e-mailed the guys at The Huddle Report to try and take part in 2009's competition. However, right on their site, they proclaim:
This is not an open mock draft and not everyone can enter. To ensure the integrity of the ratings, we will only score mock drafts from established draft websites, publications and media outlets.
I sure hope I don't ruin the "integrity of the ratings." I hope my previous track record from '07 and '08 makes me "established" enough.
What a crock. If I do hear back, I will let you all know. But I'm not holding my breath.