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Ted Ginn: Talking Expectations

You'll remember that back in January I took a look at Ted Ginn's rookie season and compared it to those of the games top receivers.  It showed that while Teddy didn't have a great season by any stretch of the imagination, there was indeed reason for hope.

Then today I stumbled across the AFC East predictions provided by the guys over at  In their preview, they have Ginn's numbers for 2008 as follows: 46 catches for 751 yards, and 4 touchdowns.  Hardly anything impressive.

But that got me thinking.  What would we all like to see out of Teddy in 2008 for his season to be considered a success?  That's the question I pose to you all.  And below I provide a little food for thought.

First, you can click here to see how Ted's numbers compare to the rookie figures of other receivers.  Then you can look below to see how well some of the game's top receivers fared in year #2 of their NFL careers:

Player Rec Yards TDs
Reggie Wayne 49 716 4
Randy Moss 80 1413 11
Chad Johnson 69 1166 5
Larry Fitzgerald 103 1409 10
Terrell Owens 60 936 8
Brandon Marshall 102 1325 7
Braylon Edwards 61 884 6
Marques Colston 98 1202 11
Roddy White 30 506 0
Torry Holt 82 1635 6

Just to clarify, those 10 receivers above were the top 10 players in 2007 in receiving yards.  So that's why I chose to look at those particular players.

As you can see, 6 of the 10 players reached that 1,000 yard plateau while 5 of them scored at least 7 touchdowns.  But I think you also have to note that most of those who had big 2nd years also benefited from good quarterback play.

So how can we relate these numbers to Ted Ginn?  Well it's really impossible to do so because of the various factors that go into the production of a wide receiver.  However, I think we can at least play around with these numbers to reach some kind of conclusion on what kind of production out of Ginn in 2008 would be considered a "reasonable expectation."

First, if you take an average of these figures above, you'd come up with 73 catches for 1,119 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Still lofty expectations, right?

But from here, let's go 1/2 of a standard deviation lower from each of the averages.  If you do that, you'd come up with the stat line of 61-943-5.  Much more reasonable now.

And there you have my personal expectations for Ted Ginn in 2008.  I'm looking for between 60 and 70 catches, between 900 and 1,000 yards, and in the 5 to 7 range for touchdowns.  And if anyone thinks these are unreachable numbers, consider this.  If Ginn catches 4 passes per game for 59 yards, he'd have a 16 game total of 64 receptions for 944 yards, which is almost identical to the figures I came up with above using the "1/2 standard deviation" method.

So what do you think?  Is a 2008 stat line of 64-944-6 too much to ask for out of Teddy?  Am I being too unrealistic?  Or am I being too pessimistic and should I raise my expectations for Ted in 2008 even higher?

Tell me below...