As it stands right now, the Dolphins currently have 83 players on their roster. The limit to enter training camp in July is 80. I would expect the next round of cuts to come following the next mini-camp, which is a voluntary mini-camp scheduled for May 23 and lasting through the 25.
But who might be next to go? And I'm not talking about the undrafted free agents here. To my count, there are 15 undrafted free agents currently under contract by the Dolphins. Those 15 I'm excluding from this talk because they are, after all, undrafted players. So their expectations are far lower.
And here's another interesting stat to just ponder. Of the 83 players currently under contract by the Dolphins, 45 of them were signed, drafted, or traded by this new regime during this off-season. That means that 54% of the roster right now was brought in by Bill Parcells and company. If you take away the 15 undrafted free agents, you're then talking about 30 of 68 (44%) players being "new regime" players. And there's a very good chance that, when all is said and done, at least 50% of the players on the 53 man roster were guys brought in this off-season. That's a ridiculously high roster turnover.
So now the question becomes which of the 38 "non-new regime" players might be the next to be dumped. And that's what I wanted to quickly examine today.
Today we'll talk about the offensive "skill" position players. Those that might not make it to September include:
RB Patrick Cobbs
FB Reagan Mauia
WR Greg Camarillo
TE David Martin
TE Justin Peelle
TE Aaron Halterman
For Cobbs, the math is simple. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are locks to be on the 53 man roster barring any setbacks from their recent injuries. Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland also decided to draft two more running backs to add into the mix. Jalen Parmele is most likely going to be the one pushing Cobbs the most as the team's 3rd halfback. In fact, Ireland all but declared after the draft that Parmele has the inside track to the roster spot. As long as he shows he can play special teams, he'll likely have every opportunity to win the job.
The other back taken, Lex Hilliard, reminds me of a short-yardage halfback/fullback combination type of player. I think he'll push more for a roster spot as a fullback more so than the 3rd running back, meaning Reagan Mauia is on notice. Remember, the team also signed Boomer Grigsby this off-season and he'll be on the 53 man roster for sure thanks to his special teams prowess. Also don't forget Mauia was arrested a few weeks back for punching a man in a parking lot of a restaurant. So yea, he should be worried.
The only receiver on this list is Camarillo. He's one of just 3 hold-overs from a year ago. And some might think Derek Hagan should be on this list. But I just have a feeling that this regime isn't ready to give up on him. He's got good size and runs good routes. He just needs to hold on to the damn ball more often. Despite the drops, though, he did have the highest success rate of all the receivers on the team last year that caught 10 or more passes.
Camarillo was a Cam Cam favorite but originally earned a spot last year as a special teamer. Bad news for Greg: the new regime has brought in a ton of special teams players, not to mention numerous free agent wide receivers (Wilford, Perry, Kircus, Bess, Foster, etc...). I like the kind of route runner Camarillo seems to be, though, and it seems like he has reliable hands. He'll just need to play very well in camp to hold off the newcomers.
As for the tight ends, this is going to be one of the more competitive position battles in camp. All 3 listed above are far from guaranteed a roster spot and, right now, I have no idea who is ahead here. The signing of Sean Ryan and the trade for Anthony Fasano means that there's a good chance only one of the above make the final roster. Fasano is all but guaranteed a roster spot and Ryan stands a good chance of making the team as the 3rd tight end. So I would suspect that Martin and Peelle will battle it out to be Fasano's primary backup as a receiving tight end. Martin is the better receiving tight end, though you wouldn't know it form watching last season's games. He's faster and more athletic than Peelle, but Peelle is a better blocker and was more reliable in the passing game last year, especially in the red zone.
We'll look at more of the roster in the coming days. But out of the guys listed above, who is the next to go?