For the first time since free agency began, let's now go around the internet and see who the various mock drafts have the Dolphins taking with the #1 overall pick:
-Mel Kiper: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
-NFL Draft Countdown: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Make no mistake about it the Dolphins desperately want out of this #1 pick and will do everything they can to trade down but the problem is there might not be much of a market. Their best chance at making a deal would be if Atlanta fell in love with Matt Ryan, which is probably why they are putting it out there that they are looking at the B.C. quarterback as well. Ultimately this pick will come down to Chris Long, Jake Long, Vernon Gholston, Matt Ryan and Sedrick Ellis and I think Howie's boy would get the nod. Not only is Long a perfect fit for Miami's 3-4 scheme but he also possesses the type of intensity and non-stop motor that Bill Parcells covets.
-Footballs Future: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Miami needs help in a lot of places. Long had an impressive career at Michigan and followed it up with a fine combine. He has the ability to anchor the offensive line for years, which is a must for whoever lines up under center.
-Don Banks of SI.com: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Long only enhanced his chances to go first overall with an impressive showing at the combine. With the draft still two months out, he remains the most sensible choice from this vantage point. But I came away from Indianapolis with increased respect for USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, and his strong work at nose tackle in the Senior Bowl could tempt a Dolphins team that seems certain to transition to a 3-4 defense. Don't discount Ellis, because a dominant nose tackle is so pivotal in a 3-4. At the moment, I'd say the arrow is pointing down on Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan's chances to be the Dolphins' pick, but we still don't know their verdict on John Beck's potential.
-Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
-The Sports Xchange: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
-War Room Report: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
The Dolphins have many options with the first overall pick, with three defensive players that would fit their scheme well - DE Chris Long and DTs Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. All three players would be ideal players to man the critical front of the 3-4 defense. The Dolphins could also look at OT Jake Long, who would provide an anchor on the left side of the offensive line for the development of a young quarterback. Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland may not want to start their era with QB John Beck, making Boston College QB Matt Ryan a real possibility here. With the plethora of options, the Dolphins would prefer to trade down and pick up additional picks. However, the depth of the draft will make it unlikely that a trade can be reached, and if the Dolphins stay at #1, Virginia DE Chris Long appears to be the current choice. Long, who was amazingly productive playing in a 3-4 defense at Virginia, could step in from day one and be true difference maker at the 3-4 end spot, which is rarely found.
Due to the length of this post, you'll have to click "Read More" to see the rest. I always hate to do this, but it had to be done.
-Rivals.com: Matt Ryan, QB, BC
The Dolphins have already bolstered defense with several free agents. Bill Parcells will focus on offense with the team's early selections, beginning with their future leader and cornerstone performer.
-Huddlegeeks: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
This big man is one of the most dominating players in college football and will add some youth to an aging Dolphins defense. You have already seen big changes in the Miami roster this offseason, but the addition of Dorsey to the roster will be the biggest.
-DraftTek: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
-Draft Ace: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Despite speculation that the Dolphins are interested in Matt Ryan, it just isn't going to happen. Bill Parcells doesn't take offensive players that early in the draft. The last offensive player he took, Terry Glenn, was a decision made above him and it drove Parcells out of New England. Dorsey and Long are options, but if they run a 3-4 defense, Long is the better fit.
-Consensus Draft Services: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Bill Parcells has been active during the early stages of free agency. Missing out on Calvin Pace, however, could be a sign of what the Dolphins do with this pick. At the combine, Chris Long was spectacular. He ran a 4.75 40-yard dash and was extremely impressive in all of the drills. Long showed the type of athleticism that a 3-4 OLB needs, and could end up playing in that spot for Miami. There are some who still believe he could line up as a DE in a 3-4, but that versatility is definitely not a negative. I still think the Dolphins are shopping this pick, but if they stay put I think they go with Long.
-Fantasy Football Jungle: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
This draft was actually pretty hard to make. There were quite a few instances where I had a tough time deciding between two or three prospects. This was one of those instances. The Dolphins really want to trade down but I don't really see that happening. I really can't see them getting much value for the number one pick this year since most of the top five to ten players could be picked anywhere in that range. Teams aren't going to need the number one pick to get some of the best players. The Dolphins' offensive line hasn't actually been that bad, so I don't think they'll go with Jake Long here. Therefore, I think The Dolphins will end up picking Chris Long. While Glenn Dorsey is probably a better player, Long is definitely one of the top 3-5 players available this year and Dorsey isn't a good fit for the 3-4 the Dolphins will try to run next year, plus his injuries are starting to concern some. Long is a phenomenal defensive end who would fit perfectly in the 3-4 scheme. He's got a great motor, is solid against both the run and the pass, and has a great combination of size, power, and quickness.
-Walter Football: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
-Vic Carucci of NFL.com: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
It wouldn't be a shock to see the Dolphins go with a quarterback because their new decision-makers, led by Bill Parcells, could easily decide they need someone better than John Beck. But is that someone Boston College's Matt Ryan, the presumptive top quarterback in the draft? For now, that's not entirely clear because Ryan didn't throw at the NFL Scouting Combine or play in the Senior Bowl. In the meantime, Long looks to be as safe as any player who could be chosen in this spot. He's one of the most complete and NFL-ready defensive ends to emerge from the college ranks. He had a tremendous performance at the combine. He also has extremely high character.
-Draft King: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
-D & J NFL Draft: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
-NFL Daily: Matt Ryan, QB, BC
-NFL Report: Matt Ryan, QB, BC
-The Football Expert: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
If the Dolphins stay at this position there would be only three players I feel as value here: Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, and Chris Long. With Ronnie Brown as your franchise back and needs elsewhere, McFadden is out, and that comes down to the defensive lineman. For the Dolphins, a team that will utilize a 3-4 defensive scheme, Chris Long is perfect. Glenn Dorsey is a beast in the inside, but his transition to a nose in a 3-4 is questionable. Actually, I see Sedrick Ellis as more of a possibility than Dorsey. But, if the Dolphins do stay at #1, which I know they will try to trade out, Long should be the pick. Long was dominant as an end in a 3-4, which is an extremely difficult position to succeed at. 3-4 defensive schemes need three talented men up front to be successful, and Long is certainly a strong start.
So that's 20 internet mock drafts right there. And if you break it down, 65% are saying Chris Long is the pick. Meanwhile, both Jake Long and Matt Ryan are predicted in only 15%. And there's still one mock draft who believes Glenn Dorsey is the pick. Interestingly enough, nobody will go out on a limb and say the Dolphins will take Vernon Gholston #1 overall.
Thoughts on any of this below...