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Breaking Down the DPOY Award: Can Joey Porter win it?

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We are at the midway point of the season and now is a good time to really take a step back and look at if Joey Porter can indeed become the 2nd Dolphin to win the Defensive Player of the Year award in 3 years.

To do this, we're going to have to crunch the numbers.  Now I know that players impact football games in more ways than numbers can show.  For example, all of Joey Porter's countless QB hurries - some of which resulted in interceptions - won't be accounted for here.  But the fact of the matter is that the people who vote on the award are journalists who, more or less, are simply looking at numbers.  They haven't watched every snap for every potential award winner.  They just look at the top candidates statistics and then cast their vote.

So that's how we're going to look at it.

Now, if you were a reader of this site back in 2006, you'd know that I used a formula which I created called the Impact Plays Index (IPI) to break down Jason Taylor's chance at winning the award.  You can see how I created the formula by reading this post.  And you can see, based on the final results of my breakdown, that this formula was pretty damn accurate in terms of how the final voting results broke down.

So let's get onto the breakdown itself.

So the first thing to do is narrow the list to a top 15 or so.  And that is what I did by taking into account numerous factors.  Below are the top 15 DPOY candidates (in no particular order), at least at this point, and there key statistics:

Player Tkls Scks Ints TDs PDs FFs FRs TFLs Blk
Joey Porter 30 11.5 0 0 1 3 1 2 0
Kris Jenkins 27 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 1
Justin Tuck 36 8.5 1 1 1 2 0 3.5 1
Terrell Suggs 35 5 2 2 5 1 0 6.5 0
Albert Haynesworth 29 6 0 0 2 1 0 3.5 0
Barrett Ruud 71 2 2 0 5 0 1 2 0
James Harrison 51 10 0 0 2 3 0 1.5 0
Charles Woodson 21 1 4 2 12 0 0 0.5 0
London Fletcher 75 0 0 0 4 1 0 2.5 0
John Abraham 23 10 0 0 0 3 0 2 1
DeMarcus Ware 49 10 0 0 1 2 1 4 0
LaMarr Woodley 37 9.5 1 1 1 2 3 2 0
Cortland Finnegan 43 0 4 1 12 0 0 1.5 0
Patrick Willis 71 1 1 1 8 0 1 3 0
Shaun Rogers 45 5 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 1

So now let's break this down and see what the Impact Plays Index says about these 15 potential DPOY candidates:

Player IPI Player IPI
1. T. Suggs 65 9. J. Porter 50.5
2. L. Woodley 63.5 10. C. Woodson 49.5
2. P. Willis 63.5 11. L. Fletcher 48
4. D. Ware 59.5 12. S. Rogers 44.5
5. B. Ruud 57.5 13. J. Abraham 43
6. J. Tuck 55 14. A. Haynesworth 37
6. J. Harrison 55 15. K. Jenkins 24.5
8. C. Finnegan 54.5

As you can see above, Porter has some work to do - statistically speaking - if he wants to win that DPOY award.  I know the argument can and will be made that Porter has done so much more than just what the stats show - and I agree 100%.  But like I said, these people who vote on the award don't know nearly as much about each player and their particular situation as they should.  And when you simply review that stats, Porter's figures across the board aren't as impressive as some others.

But there's still 8 games to go.  And if Joey can end the season with 20+ sacks, it'll be hard for a voter to vote against him.

So keep grinding, J-Peezy!

Thoughts?