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Phearless Phorecast: Week 1

Time to get into my non-Dolphin related NFL picks for week 1.  Each week, I'll do this, not to show how much or how little I know (more likely the latter), but because it's a good way to get some conversation going.  I know many of you are like me and not just Dolphin fans, but also NFL fans.  So let's get into it:

Steelers -4.5 at Browns
I was just in Cleveland last weekend and, maybe it was the success that the Indians are having, but the fans just seem a bit too excited for their Browns this year.  In a few years, they could be very good.  But this year, I just don't see it.  I love the matchup of Willie Parker against Cleveland's run defense and I think this game will also be the start of a Ben Roethlisberger bounce back year.  Four and a half points are just not enough here for me to even think about taking the Browns.  Steelers win.

Chiefs +3 at Texans
I don't like taking road underdogs, but I think the Chiefs are going to surprise in week one.  Sure, their offense has look bad.  But that's been without Larry Johnson.  And though I'm aware that LJ might still be rusty, this Texan defense is very good.  Offensively for the Texans, I like Matt Schaub but I think he'll need a few weeks to really get comfortable as a new starter in a new system.  Whenever you can take a team who has the best player involved in that particular game and get 3 points, it's worth taking.  Chiefs at least cover.

Eagles -3 at Packers
I don't usually like laying points against the Packers in Green Bay, especially on opening day, but the Eagles are too good to not win this game by at least 3.  I love Brian Westbrook and think he's going to create some serious matchup problems.  And I'm just not sold on Green Bay's offense, especially having to go against a talented defense like Philly's in the first week of the season.  Lay the 3 points and watch Brett Favre force the ball into coverage.

Rams -1 vs Panthers
As you know by now, I love St. Louis this year.  And to be perfectly honest, I'm not too keen on Carolina.  I think their offense has some serious question marks.  Thier offensive line hasn't looked as good as it has in years past and their defense just isn't what it used to be.  I love Julius Peppers but Dan Morgan has slowed and is one hit away from his career being done, Deke Cooper is not a good replacement for Mike Minter, and Kris Jenkins is not the force in the middle that he used to be (which is why Carolina was shopping him).  Put your trust in Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, and Torry Holt and watch the Rams win fairly easily at home on the turf.

Raiders -1.5 vs Lions
I might be the only person outside of Oakland and Detroit who cares about this game, but it's interesting.  The Lions have some expectations (thank you, Jon Kitna) this year, but reality is going to come hit them quickly.  The Raiders defense is very, very good and often overlooked.  I think that they will keep Detroit's offense, which won't have much of a running game, in check.  Offensively, I think the Raiders will find a way to score enough points to win at home against a dreadful Lion defense.  Remember, LaMont Jordan was once considered a very good back.  If the Raiders' line can open just a few holes, he'll have some running room on Sunday.  And Jerry Porter has a favorable matchup against a weak Lion secondary.  He'll be able to get open just enough to move the ball down the field for a few scores.  Raiders win.

So there you have it.  Let me know how dumb you all think I am or post your own picks for week one.