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Phearless Phorecast: Week 5

Well last week was another tough one.  Maybe I should just stop doing these.  But where's the fun in that?  I guess I'd rather embarrass than just abandon my 5 weekly picks.  So let's see how bad I can do this week.

Last week: 1-4
Season: 4-14-2

Patriots -16.5 vs Browns
Yes, the Browns have been playing better.  But this Patriots team is just crushing everybody and there's no reason that trend shouldn't continue.  The Browns defense is not going to be able to slow this Patriots' passing attack.  I think the Browns could keep it close through the first half, but there's no way they keep it tight in the 2nd half.  I know 16 and a half is a ton of points, and I wouldn't do it if New England was on the road, but I think it's a solid play this week.

Saints -3 vs Panthers
I'm not too sure what to think of this Panthers team.  But with David Carr at the helm, I'm pretty confident the Saints will be able to prevent the Panthers from putting too many points on the board.  And though I hate Reggie Bush, I think this Saints offense is going to recover and finally get one in the win column.  They are coming off of a bye week and I trust Sean Payton to have a solid gameplan heading into this game.  

Chargers +1.5 at Broncos
I know taking road underdogs isn't the best strategy, but I just have this feeling.  The Chargers have shown some signs of breaking out of this slump and I just think it's only a matter of time before they do so.  The Broncos, on the other hand, have lost their last 2 and are going through some turmoil now with this whole Travis Henry thing.  At this point, it's unknown if he'll play on Sunday, and even if he does, it'll likely be a distraction.  Also keep in mind that Denver is lucky to even have those 2 wins, as they just squeaked by two mediocre teams (Oakland and Buffalo).  I think San Diego plays inspired footbal land win this game going away.

Ravens -3.5 at 49ers
To me, this one is easy.  The Ravens defense, though they haven't played as well as they have in the past, is very good.  The 49ers offense...no so much.  Frank Gore has looked quite pedestrian and Trent Dilfer is now starting for the injured Alex Smith.  I think Willis McGahee will have a solid day and provide just enough offense for Baltimore to win and cover.  And truth be told, even if Alex Smith was playing, I'd still like Baltimore.  So this game seems like a no-brainer.  We shall see.

Cowboys -10 at Bills
Speaking of no-brainers, is it just me or does this game seem to obvious?  It actually kind of worries me because I just don't see this game being all that close, and usually when it seems obvious, it isn't.  But I'll take my chances, as I don't see any reason why Tony Romo and company can't put up 30-40 points on this injury-plagued Buffalo defense that wasn't any good to begin with.  I think the Bills will likely score some points on Dallas, but in the end, this game will likely end up 38-24 or something close to that.  Laying 10 on the road on Monday night is not something to make a habit of, but in this particular case, I don't see any reason not to.