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Neo

Apr 23, 2008 Jul 20, 2008 37 1254

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NFL teams that will fail in '08

Is it given we aren't going to the playoffs this year? Maybe. Persoanlly i don't care, we aren't on this list. hehe

 

Expect these NFL teams to miss the playoffs again

Given the annual turnover in the 12-team playoff field, I tried last week to make an educated prediction (i.e., wild guess) at which six postseason squads from 2007 will miss the bus in ‘08. The six pegged to be knocked down a peg or two in the coming season are the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants.

So with a half-dozen seats expected to be empty, the next job is to figure out which six non-playoff teams from 2007 will qualify for the Super Bowl tournament. Before that, let’s consider six non-playoff teams from last season that will remain non-playoff teams this time around:

1. New York Jets

The New England Patriots, who typically built their roster carefully and methodically, used an aggressive offseason in 2007 to position the franchise for an undefeated regular season. Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum previously espoused a build-through-the-draft approach, but he paid out like a broken poker machine in March, giving huge-money deals to more than a few strangers to the franchise.

Though the Patriots’ approach in ‘07 had an overriding sense of precision, the Jets’ offseason moves came off as reckless—almost desperate.

The Jets have too many question marks, most notably at quarterback. Kellen Clemens, a second-round pick in ‘06, has struggled and thus gave Chad Pennington an unexpected shot at regaining the starting gig. The reality: Neither guy is the answer.

More important, there is growing evidence that the players don’t trust the front office. Last year, it was Pete Kendall who claimed the team had reneged on promises to increase his pay. Then, wide receiver Laveranues Coles made an identical contention. Now, tight end Chris Baker is barking the same tune.

Despite the Jets’ ambitions to compete with division rival New England and the New York Giants—those Super Bowl ring-wearing crosstown neighbors with whom the they share a stadium—the reality for the Jets is that winning the AFC East is a pipe dream, and securing a wild-card spot is a long shot.

2. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are the trendy pick to make the ‘08 playoffs, given their sudden resurgence and near miss of the postseason a year ago. And so they’ll face the intense pressure and scrutiny that go along with high expectations.

With a tough schedule, a bull’s eye on each side of that logo-less orange helmet and a full offseason for defensive coordinators to figure out how to stop quarterback Derek Anderson, it could be a long year for the Browns.

Like the Jets, the Browns’ offseason spending smacks of desperation. They gave too much money to wide receiver Donte’ Stallworth and gave up too much for underachieving defensive tackle Shaun Rogers.

The big question is whether Anderson can continue to perform at a high level. His “nothing to lose” mindset has been replaced by the burden of being the clear-cut starter, with an upstart first-rounder peering over his shoulder, anxious for Anderson to screw things up.

Though the fans in Cleveland sorely deserve a winning team, the fact that last year’s team did so well without a playoff berth is going to work against the Browns this year. The end result could very well be another year without a postseason appearance.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

On the surface, the addition of the Chiefs to this list is a no-brainer. The franchise is in obvious rebuilding mode, and coach Herm Edwards expects nine of the team’s 12 draft picks to suit up on Sundays this fall.

But I’ve added them because some Kansas City fans don’t seem to realize that the team is closer to the bottom than the top. Indeed, there’s a strange sense of swagger that comes from a franchise that, in reality, has nothing to swagger about.

Though confidence is a good thing, it needs a strong foundation. The Chiefs don’t have it, and thus the confidence from guys like Edwards and GM Carl Peterson is more accurately described as hubris.

Come January, that hubris could be replaced by unemployment.

4. Detroit Lions

Like the Chiefs, the Lions have far more confidence than their talent level warrants. Quarterback Jon Kitna can’t keep quiet; he again has predicted 10 victories. It didn’t happen in ‘07, and it won’t happen in ‘08.

What have the Lions done to get better? The running back situation is a multi-headed crapshoot. The offensive line is average at best. And the defense is merely a collection of former Buccaneers who, if they were great players, would be current Buccaneers.

Picking the Lions to miss the playoffs hardly represents a full-body shimmy onto a rubbery tree limb. However, it’s important to nip in the bud the annual sense that the law of averages will come into play and that this year will be the year for the Lions.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of the law of averages favoring a certain NFL team, look for plenty of preseason prognostications for the Cardinals reaching the playoffs. Some might even think the Cardinals will win their second postseason game since the Truman administration.

Don’t count on it.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt has the team moving in the right direction, but two offseasons isn’t enough time to turn this team around. The offensive line still needs a lot of work, and the defense isn’t quite ready to perform like the unit that complemented Whisenhunt’s offense in Pittsburgh.

Then there’s the quarterback position. Matt Leinart isn’t developing as anticipated, and Kurt Warner doesn’t have much time left. The starter/reliever approach the Cardinals used until Leinart (broken collarbone) landed on the injured reserve last year barely was working.

Leinart likely won’t tolerate that approach in ‘08. But Warner says he still can play, and that passive-aggressive routine of his will cause problems if Leinart struggles and still gets the snaps.

For any other franchise, it would be a recipe for trouble. In Arizona, it means that things will continue to be the same as they’ve been.

6. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have the talent. For whatever reason, they can’t put it all together. It has been that way for two seasons, since the Panthers lost to the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC championship game on Jan. 22, 2006.

Once again, the Panthers look solid on paper, especially with a pair of first-round picks in running back Jonathan Stewart and offensive tackle Jeff Otah. But Carolina GM Marty Hurney still hasn’t done anything to establish a receiving threat across from Steve Smith or provide depth at quarterback behind Jake Delhomme, whose star is in danger of burning out for good.

Come January, then, it’ll be another round of excuse-making for a team that should have been good enough to go places in the postseason but simply didn’t.

Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and writes two columns a week for Sporting News.

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A little info on each of the UDFAs.

 

 BY DAVID J. NEAL

 

In the early post-draft flurry of undrafted free agent signings, the Dolphins reportedly have signed eight.

They are: University of Delaware offensive tackle Mike Byrne, who protected Baltimore first-round pick quarterback Joe Flacco; Boise State offensive tackle Dan Gore; Portland State offensive tackle Daren Heerspink; Brigham Young linebacker Kelly Poppinga, brother of Green Bay linebacker Brady Poppinga; Maine tight end Matt Mulligan; Montana kicker Dan Carpenter; Hawaii wide receiver Davone Bess; and Georgia Southern quarterback Jayson Foster.

The few undrafted rookie free agents who survive the first cuts of training camp usually wind up on the practice squad. Injuries, overachievement or underachievement can change things.

Six undrafted free agents signed by the Dolphins were on the 2007 roster, and three -- long snapper John Denney (2005), safety Courtney Bryan (2007) and linebacker Edmond Miles (2007) -- played every game. Safety Tuff Harris (2007) spent most of the season on the practice squad before safety injuries forced him into the lineup for the season finale.

Foster won the 2007 Walter Payton Award as the top player in the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision (nee Division I-AA) as a quarterback a year after Southern Conference coaches voted him all-conference at wide receiver (first team) and kick returner (second team). As a quarterback in 2007, he ran for a NCAA Division I-quarterback record 1,844 yards.

Expect Foster to get the chance in training camp to return kicks or operate as an occasional wide receiver who can be a throwing threat on gadget plays. He completed 64.1 percent of his passes last year and averaged 11 yards per completion.

In a bit of irony, the Dolphins drafted a Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I) quarterback whose team lost to I-AA power Appalachian State in 2007, Michigan's Chad Henne, and signed as an undrafted free agent a quarterback whose team beat Appalachian State in 2007 (38-35) to end Appalachian's 30-game home winning streak.

Dolphins vice president in charge of football operations Bill Parcells and general manager Jeff Ireland certainly hold no prejudices when it comes to the former Division I-AA -- they found 2002 Payton Award winner Tony Romo and brought him to Dallas as an undrafted free agent.

Byrne got the benefit of being on the same game film as with Flacco, who was scouted by every NFL team that needed a quarterback, including the Dolphins. Byrne also was an Academic All-American at the Level Formerly Known as Division I-AA.

Poppinga had spent his previous college years at outside linebacker until BYU asked him to move inside for his senior season. He's 26, four to six years older than most NFL rookies. Not only did he sit out the 2005 season after transferring to BYU from Utah State, but he didn't enter college until three years after he graduated high school. He spent one post-high school year working, then did his two-year Mormon mission in Ecuador (Dolphins fourth-round pick Shawn Murphy also is older than the average rookie, 25, after doing his two-year mission in Brazil).

Continue reading this post »

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Dolphins say second-round QB Henne could start as rookie

Associated Press

DAVIE, Fla. -- With the NFL draft barely under way Saturday, Miami Dolphins-bound No. 1 overall pick Jake Long brightened at the suggestion he might be joined in South Florida by his former Michigan teammate, quarterback Chad Henne.

"Whatever team drafts Chad is going to get a great player," Long said.

Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images
Chad Henne will join his Michigan teammate, tackle Jake Long, in Miami.

Hours later, they were reunited when the Dolphins used a second-round pick to take Henne. General manager Jeff Ireland didn't discount the possibility Henne will start as a rookie.

"That's up to him," Ireland said. "It's going to bring some competition to the position. It's going to be a good battle."

Henne will compete with John Beck, a second-round choice last year, and recently acquired veteran Josh McCown.

After going 1-15 last year, the Dolphins needed upgrades at plenty of positions. But instability at quarterback is perhaps the biggest reason they've missed the playoffs the past six years, a franchise record.

"I don't know if I'll have the opportunity to step in right now," Henne said. "But I'll prepare like I'm going to compete for the starting job."

The Dolphins used their first of two second-round picks to select Clemson defensive end Phillip Merling, which could signal the departure of six-time Pro Bowl defensive end Jason Taylor.

Despite speculation the new Miami regime led by Bill Parcells was on the verge of swapping Taylor for draft picks, no deal was announced. Ireland said the team conducted no trade talks Saturday.

"We didn't get any calls, so there was no discussion," he said.

As to the speculation?

"Obviously, strictly rumor," Ireland said.

The Dolphins might still swing a deal Sunday, when they have six picks, including the first choice in the third round. They traded third-string running back Lorenzo Booker to the Philadelphia Eagles for a fourth-round choice, No. 115 overall.

"I don't think Lorenzo really fit our system we're trying to put in place here," Ireland said. "We're looking for guys who play a lot of plays."

On Friday the Dolphins traded their fourth-round pick to acquire linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys.

"We're in the business of collecting good players, and that is what we've done," Ireland said.

While Henne waited much of the day to be taken with the 57th overall pick, Long kicked off the draft in New York City with his ceremonial introduction as the top choice. He took the stage at Radio City Music Hall and held a Miami jersey bearing uniform number 1.

The Dolphins had committed to choosing Long when they signed him to a five-year contract Tuesday for $57.75 million, including $30 million guaranteed.

"I was a little more relaxed just knowing where I was going and just being here to make it official," Long said. "That solidified it all. It was just breathtaking to walk out there and shake the commissioner's hand and hold up that jersey. It was a dream come true."

Joining Long in New York were his parents, two brothers and girlfriend. They cheered when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced Long's name, but there were boos from fans of the New York Jets, the Dolphins' division rivals.

Photos ...
2008 NFL Draft


» Photos: Draft scene
» More photos

"I got booed pretty bad," Long said with a chuckle.

Merling was taken with the first pick of the second round, No. 32 overall. The 6-foot-4, 276-pound defensive end had seven sacks as a junior last season despite nursing a sports hernia.

He underwent surgery, resumed full workouts only in the past week and tried out for two dozen NFL observers Thursday at Clemson.

"I'm a dominant defensive end," Merling said. "I can play the run extremely well and get to the quarterback. I think I do a lot of things. I play natural. I just do it."

Henne, a four-year starter at Michigan, holds school records for passing yards and touchdowns. He capped his career by throwing for 373 yards and three scores to help the Wolverines beat Florida in the Capital One Bowl.

"We just brought another guy in to compete for the job," Ireland said. "He's a four-year starter at the University of Michigan -- I like that. He's a great leader. He's got an aura about him that you like about a quarterback."

 

From NFL.com

I wouldn't just hand the starting job to John or Josh just yet. Personally I'm glad Parcells and Co didn't throw all thier bags in the John Beck basket. Gotta have some back-up plan.

12 comments | 1 recs

New Draft (Value) Chart

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

PFT:

A couple of weeks ago, we developed a revised trade chart for valuing draft picks.  We've since caught wind of a new chart that has been developed by and among multiple teams, and that could be put in use as soon as this year.

The new chart can be seen right here.

In contrast to the current trade chart, the new chart has very different values for the picks in round one.  At the top, the points are compressed.  The first pick was worth 3,000; it's now down to 2,000.  However, the sixth pick is worth more under the new chart than it was under the prior version.  Each remaining pick, from No. 7 to No. 32, is worth more as well, with the last pick in the round now worth 670, up from 590.

The only difference in round two is that the first pick in the round is worth 570 under the new chart.  It previously had a value of 580.  The values for all picks in rounds three through seven are unchanged.

The chart has been revised due to the dramatic increases in the contracts paid to the first few players selected in the draft.  The financial investment required when exercising such a high pick necessarily has reduced the total value of these picks, necessitating a reduction in the total perceived trade value of the top selections.

The apparent reason for the 100-point gap between the bottom of round one and the top of round two is that the last player drafted in round one can be signed to a five-year deal.  At the top of round two, the maximum duration is four years.

Under that theory, however, the difference between picks No. 16 and No. 17 should be more than 40 points, since the maximum contract length at the top half of round one is six years.

It remains to be seen whether the new chart becomes widely used by NFL teams.  It's clearly an improvement, however, over the outdated chart that was developed in the 1990s.

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Here's hoping Parcells passes on the pick

Someone brought this up in a previous Diary, but it actually has stirred a little talk. This is a article from the Sporting News I found linked through PFT:

New Dolphins football pooh-bah Bill Parcells has made one thing clear during his time with the team.

He is going to do things his own way.

Parcells signed a contract crafted to allow him to wrest Jeff Ireland away from the Cowboys by giving Ireland "final say" over the roster. On paper. But no one believes that Ireland will use that authority without first checking with the Tuna.

Parcells, per published reports, also offered the head coaching job to Tony Sparano before the football season of Sparano's previous employer, the Dallas Cowboys, had ended. And Parcells, per guard Justin Smiley's own words, had the former 49ers offensive lineman agreeing to terms just minutes after free agency opened, making it obvious to anyone with an ounce of common sense that the deal was hammered out at a time when Parcells' organization should have had zero contact with Smiley.

So if Parcells is willing to ignore the rules that are on the books, he'd surely be willing to cast aside an unwritten one: Thou shalt not intentionally fail to exercise a draft pick.

I mentioned the possibility that Parcells would pass on the pick during an appearance on a South Florida radio station recently, and the host later told me that the mere possibility of Parcells holding his card beyond the allotted 10 minutes (down from 15 in past years) sparked a spirited debate. Surely, if Parcells ultimately would choose not to choose, there would be a firestorm.

But it would be a legitimate maneuver. And it would be the best way, in our view, to spawn meaningful changes to a player-selection system aimed at helping the league's worst team get better, but, as a practical matter, a system that only compounds a floundering franchise's fate by forcing it to dump $35 million of guaranteed money into the pockets of the next David Carr, Ryan Leaf or Charles Rogers.

The controversy and curiosity arising from a team intentionally passing on its pick would alert more and more people to the problem. Hopefully, it would prompt the players to focus on the fact that kids who never have taken a snap in the NFL are getting obscene windfalls, and on the reality that the money instead could be devoted to the guys who have given years of sweat, blood and cartilage to the game. In turn, the players then would tell their union to do something about the situation.

All of this might not be as easy as it sounds. The Dolphins could stall and then watch as the Rams, Falcons or the Raiders take the player Parcells wanted. Moreover, and as Peter King of SI.com pointed out recently, the agent for the player ultimately drafted by the Dolphins could insist on getting the money he would have received as the No. 1 pick. But if Parcells opts to dig in his heels and the player decides he wants to play, the Fins' final offer eventually will be accepted.

The far better alternative for the Dolphins would be to scare up a trade partner, allowing Miami to move down to a lower spot, bag a blue-chipper at a far lower salary and snag a few extra draft picks. But with no clear-cut, can't-miss prospect in this year's pool of players, no one is going to want to give up multiple draft picks for the privilege of forking over that $35 million guaranteed to one of several players who could be worthy of the top pick.

That's another problem with the current system. Because of the money that now gets invested in the high-end picks, fewer and fewer franchises are willing to try to move up.

And that's another reason for someone to take a stand. That someone could be Parcells, who could take real action by opting for inaction when the time comes to file his first pick.

Here's hoping that the guy who hasn't been afraid to thumb his nose at convention will do so once more on draft day. It would help his current employer in the short term, and it would help the entire league over the long haul.

Mike Florio

So we all know Parcells bends rules all the time, I kinda hope he would do it this time as well. There is no clear-cut #1, if we don't find a trade partner, I say Parcells just  narrows his pick options to 3 guys (which he has probably already done) lets the Rams and Falcons pick and pick the guy they don't choose.

Like the article points out, this would start some controversy but it would make statement and save us millions. What do we got to lose? Besides millions to an unproven rookie that is undeserving of the #1 pick.

Well all that, and I'd love to see no teams submitting a card 1 hr into the draft. Thats REAL drama tv.-)

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Let us not forget.....

What the Giants did for our fanbase in February. With all the draft talk and debates its easy to forget what almost had to our record just last year.

Thank you NY Giants

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT5ANbGdMtY

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>For keeping us the ONLY undefeated NFL franchise.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<&l t;<<<<<<

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Fins salary cap after all the signings

Dolphins agree with Davis, reach $100 million in salaries

The Dolphins have agreed to a two-year contract with former Dallas special teams player Keith Davis.

Davis, the special teams captain for Dallas last season, comes to Miami primarily to help turn around what was a putrid special teams corps last season. If you remember, the special teams was so awful early on, the Dolphins had to bench several players and replace them with offensive and defensive starters.

Even then the improvement was marginal.

Anyway, the Davis signing will put the Dolphins over the $100 million mark in salary cap expenditures. As of the latest figures I had before the Davis contract, the Dolphins were $21 million under their adjusted cap.

Miami's adjusted cap, by the way, is $120 million because it got a $4 million cap credit from last year. Miami had accounted for $99.6 million of that $120 million prior to getting Davis on board. That contract, by the way, has not yet been signed as of this writing.

I would estimate the Dolphins will be about $20 million under the cap once the Davis contract is reported.

posted by Armando Salguero

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Highlights from Ricky Williams interview on DP Show

Nothing really of interest, but here is what he said:

Bill called Ricky in his office the last week of the season and told him he wanted and believed in him.

Ricky said he used to "lie to himself".

Says he tries to "stack the deck" against smoking when thinks about doing it again.

Said he likes to get high when reading. He liked to get high while reading the Bible for example.

Playing football and being competitive is his "favorite thing in the whole wide world", but being a celebrity you can sometime lose your humanity.

He is gonna play his butt off, never complain and give 100% day in and out this year.

Said he hasn't gotten high in at least a year.

Just a typical Ricky interview. Nothing new, but I wouldn't looked for him to be traded/released the way he said was talking.

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This is a REAL youth movement

by: Brian Miller

A short 1 hour after midnight on Friday morning, the Dolphins made their first pick up of the NFL new year.  In fact, the Phins made the first free agent signing of the NFL.  Road grader guard Justin Smiley from SF, they wouldn't finish that first day until late Friday night.

Although all of the reported free agents have not officially signed, they have all reportedly agreed to a contracts and only need to pass physicals or get to town for those who were not.  The laundry list of names is unspectacular as individuals.  Together they form the basis of a foundation that this team lacks.  Each player is one cog in the unit.  They way the function as individuals is almost as important as they function as a team.

Consider that of all the players signed, only 1 is prior to the 2005 season, Jason Ferguson and he was traded for.  The majority of the others came out of the 2004 draft and all are coming off their rookie contracts.  This is a youth movement.  In one day, the Miami Dolphins became younger, stronger, and have a foundation for the future.  In one day, the Dolphins now have more players from the 2004 draft than what made this team from their own draft.  In 2004 5 players made the Dolphins roster.  Only Vernon Carey is left after Derrick Pope and Rex Hadnot became free agents this year.  

Yesterday the Dolphins added Charlie Anderson a 6th round 2004 selection of the Texans, Randy Starks, a 3rd round 2004 pick by the Titans, Ernest Wilford, a 2004 4th round pick of the Jaguars, Justin Smiley, 2004 2nd rounder from the 49ers, Reggie Torbor a 2004 selection of the Giants, and Sean Ryan a 2004 pick by the Cowboys and Bill Parcells. 6 players from the 2004 draft. Not bad.

In addition to the 2004 class, Calvin Pace is from the 2003 class. Jason Ferguson was added via trade for a swap of 08 6th rounders and an 09 6th rounder. Rounding out yesterdays 9 is veteran QB Josh McCown.

So day two of the free agent market has started and it should be quiet compared to yesterday. Perhaps the biggest news of any importance may be how much money was actually spent yesterday out of that 40 million dollar cap space. There is some rumors floating around that Jevon Kearse and Javon Walker could both be in town and although both carry the names, neither carry the weight of those names anymore. No, the Dolphins will likely regroup and refocus their energy and efforts for the long haul.

So while the fans wait out the next name that pops across the NFL ticker on ESPN or NFL Network, the Dolphins will be scheduling more interviews, working the phones for trades, and continuing their process of laying a foundation of work on the field. If there is one thing that is certain after yesterdays signings is, the Dolphins are going to run a 34 defense. At least that has been put to rest now.

I couldn't agree more with this. Everyone said Cam was rebuilding and all the young players. Hard to believe Cam was in a "state of rebuilding" mind trading for Trent Green, signing Porter, and even with the season lost "playing the player that gives us the best chance to win".

This is a REAL rebuilding process. I think Parcells/Ireland did a fine job with what they had to work with. The only "old" guy we got was Ferguson, yet we still got the young NT from the Titans. And we're only a couple of days into FA.

The draft. We still got the draft to come. I see a team thats gonna be built on young, promising players. A "foundation" if you will, that Bill said he has come to build. A foundation, after about a year (or so) of learning, thats gonna be able to kick some real @ss just like the other teams Bill rebuilt.

PS Nice to see our front office is burning that "midnight oil" and staying off websites eh?

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Your Top 3 Choices You Hope Miami Will Take #1

Alot of people are for this guy and against that guy. People have their opinions on where they should go with the pick.

Assuming that they do not trade out, if you would list your top 3 choices in order of preference that you would like the Fins to choose.

Comments, explanations welcomed, but not necessary.

1. Jake Long

This is my 1st pick. I liked him from the beginning, but have made myself accept that we won't take him. He's a stud and a safe pick. But I have a feeling with OL depth being as good as it is in this draft I don't believe Bill will go for him. In addition I think we are a sure bet to go after Adams.

2. Matt Ryan

If Parcells is not sold on Beck, Miami should treat the most important position as a top priority in a draft for the 1st time in 25 years. Yes it's alot of money. Yes your taking a chance, but sometimes you just gotta grow a pair. Take the best prospect at the position. There is a reason why he is the only 1st rd QB prospect and the others are 2nd-3rd rounders. Lets stop trying to be cute with the 2nd rounders and has-beens. Lets quit trying to see how warm the water is with our toes and dive in.

3. Vernon Gholston

If we must go defense, I'd like Gholston over the others. Dorsey has too many injury concerns and I think Chris Long is getting a bit too hyped up because his dad is Howie. Gholston has a bigger upside and I personally think just flat out better.

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