Stroud to make his Buffalo debut on Sunday (Photo Source)

The Buffalo Bills have had a busy - dare we say "distracting"? - week leading into their 2008 season opener, a home affair with the Seattle Seahawks.  The news on the Jason Peters front was positive; the Pro Bowl tackle ended his holdout and will report to Orchard Park today.  The news on Angelo Crowell wasn't so pleasant, as the team controversially placed the LB on IR, ending his 2008 season before it began.

Starting today, those two stories don't much matter, because the Bills have a game to play in a little over 24 hours.  Now, our focus must turn entirely to Seattle.  Buffalo will be playing this game without both Peters and Crowell, so the importance of those stories - specifically the Peters story - should wane until early next week.

Excitement for a Bills season opener hasn't been this rampant in years, even with the distraction.  With playoff expectations (for better or worse) surrounding the Bills and a must-win situation right out of the gate, fans are realizing - and no one is worried about this - that they'll need to be on their A game if they're attending Sunday's opener.

John Morgan of Field Gulls has written an excellent article on some of the key matchups (from Seattle's viewpoint, obviously) in this game; meanwhile, our very own Kurupt has thrown out some keys to victory in a very good read as well.  The NFL.com preview video is up.  The game is, quite literally, on our doorstep.  Get your adrenaline pumping, Bills fans, and while you're doing that, take a gander at what I'll be watching for during this game:

Trent Edwards: It's all on the quarterback.  Edwards' offensive line is re-shuffled, and he's faced with the very tall task of picking apart a stingy Seahawks defense.  He'll need to do what he's, apparently, best at doing tomorrow - process information quickly.  Seattle is sure to throw a lot at Buffalo's line in the way of wrinkles to confuse the young Bills' offense; the team won't win if Edwards can't keep the team afloat and put some points on the board.

James Hardy/Josh Reed: Buffalo is going to need to play their usual game, albeit a bit differently; ball control will be supremely important tomorrow, as the Seahawks have the type of defense that makes opponents pay if they're fresh.  As such, the Bills will need to consistently convert third downs offensively - making the contributions of players such as Josh Reed and James Hardy particularly important to offensive success.

The Pass Rush: Yes, the Bills made some important additions to their defense - specifically, that beast pictured at the top left of this post - but in order to be a truly playoff-caliber unit, Buffalo's pass rush will need to be far more efficient than it was in 2007.  I'm not singling out the defensive ends, who've gotten a lot of flack here; I'm talking about the entire defense.  Matt Hasselbeck orchestrates an excellent West Coast offense, but the timing of that attack can be thrown off with pressure.

Keith Ellison: Easily the weak link in Buffalo's starting defensive lineup, you can bet that Seattle will be attacking Ellison tomorrow, particularly in the run game.  Ellison's responsibilities will be taken care of, but the Bills may have to play a safety down on the strong side to help Ellison stand up physically to what will be a lot of attention.  Time will tell exactly how much Ellison's presence hamstrings what the Bills do defensively, but you can bet I'll be keeping an eye out for such developments.

Sense of Urgency: As I stated above (and also previously this week), this is, quite literally, a must-win game for the Bils.  The Bills' coaches have been preaching the merits of a fast start to their team since March.  I want to see a sense of urgency on the field; a sign that the team realizes how important it is to make sure that their fast start idea manifests itself on the field.  We won't see a laid-back effort like we saw against Denver last year, but I'm looking for something much more aggressive tomorrow.  Time will tell.

That's all for today, folks.  Enjoy your Saturday, and be aware that the Open Game Thread for tomorrow's Bills/Seahawks game will go live at about 12:30 PM, a half-hour before kickoff.  GO.  BILLS.

Crowell likely finished as a member of the Bills (Photo Source)

Yesterday, the Buffalo Bills shocked their fan base when they announced that linebacker Angelo Crowell had been placed on Injured Reserve.  Though he had practiced just a day earlier and had participated in the Bills' pre-season victory over Indianapolis, Crowell chose to have surgery when his lingering knee injury was deemed too difficult to play on.

Now, the fact that Crowell is seeking a second opinion on his injured knee is, by and large, irrelevant.  Crowell's 2008 season is over, and as this is the final year of a contract extension he signed in 2005, he will become an unrestricted free agent - and his career with Buffalo is likely over.

Variety of Reasons Behind the Move
A source close to the team informs us that Buffalo's decision to end Crowell's season was not made lightly.  The team was concerned about the amount of time it would take Crowell to rehab; the standard line of 2-4 weeks post-arthroscopic surgery may not have applied to Crowell, as his injury was lingering, and the team feared that it may be without Crowell for up to three months.  Crowell's decision to seek a second opinion is likely to dispel the rumor that he's damaged goods now that his season is over.  It's important to note that Buffalo's medical staff was behind this decision, and that their concern about what could happen during Crowell's rehab was the motivating factor behind the decision.  Had they waited for Crowell's rehab to begin and then knew that his out time would be substantial, they'd have been taking a huge risk.

The team also feared that Crowell had ulterior motives in sitting out - namely, his contract.  The team feels that Crowell made his decision with the idea that he'd miss part of the season, get completely healthy, and have a productive go of it once he returned in order to maximize his contract value.  That's not entirely unreasonable to believe given the circumstances.  The team's decision to IR Crowell was not made, however, to prevent him from maximizing his contract value.

Not a Part of Long-Term Plans
In short, the Bills' current regime - led by head coach Dick Jauron - has never been overly enamored with Crowell since taking over the team in 2006.  Crowell has been a productive player in his time, to be sure, and he was certainly good enough to be a starter here, but the coaches have never felt he gave it his all, both on and off the field.  That's not to say they view him as a "me-first" player; he just doesn't display some of the traits that the team's leaders do, particularly in work ethic.  He's also not viewed as the most intelligent of players, especially in coverage.  It boils down to this: the Bills viewed Crowell as good enough to start in 2008, but he wasn't in the team's long-term plans.

The fact that Crowell's decision was spur-of-the-moment brought the situation to a head.  Our source tells us that once Crowell's decision was made, the Bills were faced with an ultimatum: wait for Crowell and possibly play a double-digit number of football games with only 52 players, or put him on IR, let him get healthy, and wish him well.  In the end, the decision wasn't exactly easy, but it was probably the right one - if Crowell is a lame duck and the team wasn't happy with him, what gain is there to waiting for him to return, especially if his motives are more contractual-based than team-based?  The Bills' duty is to the team, not the player, and if Keith Ellison is more dedicated to the team than Crowell is - and isn't considered a huge drop-off - then you do what's best for the team.  It's that simple.

Bills Leaders Upset with Crowell?
Don't forget, either, that some of the popular players mentioned as possible releases in lieu of losing Crowell - such as DE Copeland Bryan or OT Matt Murphy - earned their keep.  They're team-first guys; Murphy in particular has proven to be the antithesis to Crowell, struggling to play through a shoulder injury for the good of the team.  There's a difference between "hurt" and "injured", folks.  Crowell is hurt; he can clearly play on the injury, as he did so literally a day before deciding to have surgery.  Meanwhile, Murphy is gutting it out, and guys like Ryan Denney, Chris Kelsay and even Ellison played through actual injuries last season - our source says "they were virtual cripples" - all for the sake of the team.  Our source reveals that several key players - leaders - aren't happy with Crowell's decision at all.

Ultimately, what's important to know about Crowell is this: he was, in essence, a lame duck player that wasn't necessarily a part of the team's long-term plans.  We fans can have our opinions on the matter, but ultimately, the team is excited about what Keith Ellison can do as a starter on the strong side.  Any notions that the team made this move to cut costs or punish Crowell for pulling a surprise on them are completely and utterly false - they did it because of the nature of Crowell's injury and the fact that they didn't want to wait for a guy who might not be putting the team first.  It's not the prettiest of situations, but as they've done many other times, the Bills made the right decision in this matter.  It was a hard decision, but it was right.

Welcome to "Seahawks Week", Rumblers!  In an effort to learn all that we can about the Buffalo Bills' season opening opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, we'll be joined once per day by John Morgan of Field Gulls throughout this week.  John is a superbly knowledgeable blogger when it comes to the X's and O's of the game, and he'll give us some excellent perspective on the Seahawks as a team heading into Sunday's tilt.  To see all posts related to Seahawks Week, click here.

This, folks, is our final installment of "Seahawks Week".  I'd like to publicly thank John Morgan for the wealth of Seahawks knowledge he's provided us throughout this week leading up to the game; now we know our opponent better than we could have imagined heading into opening weekend.

Our last topic?  Rookie tight end John Carlson.  Can he have an impact in Seattle right away?  John's thoughts below...

Buffalo Rumblings: One of my personal favorite prospects pre-draft that I would have loved to have seen the Bills grab was TE John Carlson.  We know he sits atop Seattle's depth chart at this point; how has he looked through the pre-season, and how big will his role be in Seattle as a rookie?

John Morgan, Field Gulls: Not so sensational during the preseason. He never was a big contributor and was most noteworthy for his penalties. That surprised and disappointed me, because I fully expected the polished Carlson to have a big preseason and win the starting spot outright. Luckily he won the spot, because the team needs him to play well his first season.

For Carlson, it's not so much his fantasy stats, though plentiful receptions would be keen, but his support abilities. First, the team needs a tight end that can aggressively stretch the seam and free Seattle's wide receivers from a safety assault over the middle. Second, Carlson needs to step up his run blocking. Shaun Alexander's 2005 tour through the various end zones of the NFL was built on a balanced attack that could run or pass from multiple formations.

If he can do those two things, Carlson will play a major part in Seattle's offense, no matter his total receptions. If he can't, Seattle will again be forced into consistent 3 and 4 wide receiver sets.

***

I appreciate the fact that Carlson needs only to play a supporting role in his rookie season, but I don't think that's the case in Week 1 - the only Seahawks game that matters for us.  Seattle is dinged up in their receiving corps, and unless the Bills become suddenly, maddeningly deficient at defending the toss sweep on Sunday, Seattle is going to have to throw well to beat the Bills.  I'm not sure I can confidently say that Courtney Taylor and Nate Burleson can beat the Bills through the air; Carlson needs to be a receiving threat on Sunday to maximize Seattle's chances of notching a road win.

I liked Carlson pre-draft, and I think the Seahawks have found themselves a consistent long-term starter at the position.  I don't think he's ready to contribute in a statistically meaningful way, however; Seattle may be forced to play Jeb Putzier at tight end in obvious passing downs against the Bills.  To be quite frank, I like our chances defending a receiving corps consisting of Burleson, Taylor, Carlson, Putzier, Maurice Morris and Julius Jones.  Of course, I've been wrong before (see: Willie Parker, "who the hell is he?" RB, Pittsburgh, in 2004 season finale).

The NFL's 2008 regular season starts this weekend (or, rather, it started last night), and in the spirit of everyone being on an uplifting, even playing field note, I thought it might be interesting to unveil, for the first and possibly last time, the Buffalo Rumblings NFL Power Rankings.  This isn't something I plan on doing every week - mostly because everyone and their brother thinks it's the bees' knees to put together a list like this - but I thought it'd be a good way to get my pre-season predictions out into the ether.  Not that any of you should feel obliged to care.

Without further ado, because I'd much rather talk about the Bills/Seahawks season opener (which we'll do soon, I promise), here are the Rumblings Power Rankings:

1.  New England.  Until someone other than the Giants beats this team, they're still the best in the league.  Which, of course, sucks for us.

2.  San Diego.  Shawne Merriman may be dumb, but this team is talented offensively and physical defensively.  They have a cake schedule, too.

3.  Dallas.  See San Diego - talent offensively, physical defensively.  I don't expect Dallas to have much competition in the NFC outside of the Giants.  It's between those two teams for NFC Super Bowl representation.

4.  Indianapolis.  They're not the team they once were, but they're still a really good football team.  They're in a dogfight to retain their division crown; the AFC Championship game might be a difficult achievement.

5.  Jacksonville.  They've got to prove something before I can give them the AFC South crown.  I'm not as impressed with their defense as I have been in the past.  The South is still Indy's to lose, but this is clearly a good football team.

Where does Buffalo rank?  Make the jump to find out.

Continue reading this post »

Welcome to "Seahawks Week", Rumblers!  In an effort to learn all that we can about the Buffalo Bills' season opening opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, we'll be joined once per day by John Morgan of Field Gulls throughout this week.  John is a superbly knowledgeable blogger when it comes to the X's and O's of the game, and he'll give us some excellent perspective on the Seahawks as a team heading into Sunday's tilt.  To see all posts related to Seahawks Week, click here.

We all know that the Seattle Seahawks have a top-flight defensive unit.  Their defensive backs and linebackers are active playmakers, and their pass rush is top notch.  However, once a position of strength along the line, the Seahawks are suddenly beat up at defensive tackle heading into Week 1.  The star of the unit, Rocky Bernard, is serving a one-game suspension, and veteran Larry Tripplett was released on cut-down day.  (OK... maybe that's addition by subtraction).

John Morgan drops by once again to discuss the situation on the inside as the Buffalo Bills prepare to release Marshawn Lynch at Seattle's (slightly weakened?) defense...

Buffalo Rumblings: What sort of effect does the suspension of Rocky Bernard have on the Seahawks' defensive plans for Sunday?

John Morgan, Field Gulls: Losing Bernard sucks, and for the Seahawks, exacerbates their run defense's worst weakness. Seattle will use Craig Terrill and rookie Red Bryant in a rotation at left defensive tackle. Terrill is a quick, penetrative one gap tackle that excels at disrupting rush lanes and pressuring the quarterback. For that, I've long held him in a high regard. He's the kind of second string player that makes a rotation work. Effective when played to his strengths, over an entire game, Terrill is a bit like a LOOGY forced into the rotation: possessing only half the skills needed to succeed. Seattle needs defensive tackles capable of rushing the passer, yes, but moreover capable of keeping blockers out of the second level.

For two years straight, Seattle has been susceptible to allowing long runs. In 2006, Seattle started the season with a healthy Marcus Tubbs. Through those first five games, Seattle allowed a run of 10 or more yards on only 7% of all plays. By season's end, that number had jumped to a staggering 29% of all plays. In 2007, the team rebounded a bit, allowing runs of 10 or more yards on 24% of all plays – still bad. But the Bernard, Brandon Mebane duo was stout. It was the Terrill, Howard Green second team unit that allowed embarrassing touchdown runs to Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams and Cedric Benson.

Bryant has the potential to keep blockers off Seattle's linemen, but as my recent review of his tape reveals, Bryant is a long, long way from being a consistent, capable defensive tackle.  Still, I don't expect a change in strategy, only results.

***

Sounds good to me.  If Seattle's not changing anything in the way of strategy, then Buffalo should be able to run fairly well on Sunday, Jason Peters or no Jason Peters.  Even with Bernard, I considered DT to be the weakness of Seattle's defense, and John's thoughts/data back that up.  Unless the Seahawks take a commanding lead in this one - and the chances of that seem unlikely, as the Bills almost always play teams close at home - the Bills should maintain quality offensive balance against the Seahawks' weakened defense.

Still, it's not all sunshine and butterflies.  Bernard may be out, but the Seahawks still have a fast and disruptive defense.  It's going to take an above average effort by Buffalo's interior linemen to get to the second level when blocking, because Seattle's linemen are so disruptive and their linebackers so active.  Running isn't going to be easy simply because Seattle is weak up the middle.  The Bills will most certainly need to be on their game.

Evans should revert to his '06 form in '08 (Photo Source)

The Buffalo Bills, as far as we can tell to this point, have been built the right way.  When head coach Dick Jauron was hired and Buffalo's front office came under the leadership of Marv Levy (and later the Brandon/Modrak/Guy trio), the team-builders chose to add young talent to its defense and to let its offense mature at its own pace.  The results to date haven't yielded great results, but promise remains.

As such, the Bills - despite entering the third year of Jauron and company's building phase - remain one of the NFL's youngest outfits.  That means that if the team is to approach its lofty expectations of ending its nearly decade-long playoff drought, some of Buffalo's younger players will need to become household names.  There are certainly more than just three Bills players with the potential to break out in 2008, but here are the three names we believe are most likely to have stellar seasons in what is expected to be a strong playoff push year for Buffalo.

WR Lee Evans - No, I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, because Evans is already one of Buffalo's team captains and its most lethal offensive threat.  What Evans isn't, however - at least at this point in time - is an elite receiver in the league.  The 27-year old, entering his fifth NFL season, has enjoyed a productive start to his career, scoring 29 touchdowns over his first four years.  We're all aware, however, that his production slipped dramatically after a 2006 season in which his 82 receptions, 1,292 yards and eight scores nearly landed him in the Pro Bowl.

Things are different for Evans this year, however.  For the first time in his career, Evans will be working in an offense that is both competent and plays to his strengths.  Turk Schonert has found ways to get Evans open throughout the pre-season, and that will continue in the regular season.  Evans' route-running is on the verge of perfect, and he's smart with the ball in his hands, so he'll stay healthy.  If his quarterback stays healthy - and admittedly, that's a big "if" at this point - Evans is on his way to becoming one of the better receivers in the league.  Don't forget it's his contract year, either - he hasn't signed that rumored extension yet, so for now, he's still playing for that big deal.

DT Kyle Williams - No one will benefit more from playing defense with new DT Marcus Stroud than his running mate, Williams.  Lots of folks - including yours truly - have underestimated Williams' athleticism in the past.  The truth is, Williams is an excellent athlete made better by his insatiably thirsty motor.  We just haven't noticed yet because Williams spent his first two seasons manning the nose tackle position in Buffalo's Tampa 2 scheme.

With Stroud on board, Williams will now spend most of his time at the 3-technique tackle position, where he'll be asked to do more penetrating and more pass rushing.  Williams recorded the first two sacks of his career in 2007, a number he should easily surpass this season.  He's been one of Buffalo's most productive defensive lineman since setting foot here as a fifth-round draft pick in '06, and with less pressure and more opportunity, Williams has a shot to open a lot of eyes.

SS Donte Whitner - The man behind this year's Bills playoff guarantee, Whitner enters his third season in the league poised to assert himself as one of the league's best safeties.  He's been solid, yet largely unspectacular, in his first two NFL seasons - while he's amassed 194 total tackles and has emerged as the leader of not just the defense, but perhaps the entire team, his big-play impact has been minimal.  Whitner recorded an interception in his first NFL game (off of Tom Brady, no less), but has only nabbed one more since the '06 season opener.

If Buffalo's defense is going to take its expected giant leap forward in 2008 - as they're in their third year together and in the system, it's not an unreasonable expectation - you can bet Whitner, as a playmaker, will be the centerpiece.  He's healthy, he's supremely confident, and he's got the talent in front of him to finally have the big-play impact that made him the eighth overall pick in the draft.  This is a huge year for Buffalo's strong safety.

Welcome to "Seahawks Week", Rumblers!  In an effort to learn all that we can about the Buffalo Bills' season opening opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, we'll be joined once per day by John Morgan of Field Gulls throughout this week.  John is a superbly knowledgeable blogger when it comes to the X's and O's of the game, and he'll give us some excellent perspective on the Seahawks as a team heading into Sunday's tilt.  To see all posts related to Seahawks Week, click here.

Last season, the Seattle Seahawks finished 10-6, won the NFC West, emerged victorious in a home playoff game and lost to Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs.  It was an impressive season, to be sure, but it was marked with a tendency that many Buffalo Bills fans need to be aware of for season opening purposes: Seattle was a different team on the road than they were at home.

John Morgan joins us for a third consecutive day to discuss his Seahawks' home/road disparity...

Buffalo Rumblings: Last season, the Seahawks were a dominant 7-1 at home, but a not-so-great 3-5 on the road.  Away games have been a hindrance for Seattle in the past.  Is there anything that you think is the culprit for this disparity, and do you see it changing in 2008?

John Morgan, Field Gulls: Well, right off, Seattle faced an easier schedule at home than on the road. Among teams contested at home, only Tampa Bay rated as above average according to DVOA. On the road, Seattle faced Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Philadelphia. So the disparity is probably a little overstated.

Still, it would be foolish of me to say Seattle doesn't play better at home - doesn't every team? Seattle, specifically, seems to benefit from Qwest's crowd noise. Foremost, Seattle's defense is built on team speed, or, rather, team quickness. Seattle isn't necessarily fast, but it's quick off the line and quick in a short space. The front seven's ability to disrupt run and pass plays by getting quick penetration in the backfield, forcing rushers outside or forcing quarterbacks into checking down or into panic throws, defines Seattle's defense. The crowd noise seems to slow an offensive line's ability to get off the snap and that fraction of a second lost allows a good - even great - defense to become outright suffocating. The impact of false starts shouldn't be lost, either. Seattle has forced 69 false start penalties at home since 2005, most in the NFL.

***

Forgive me for saying so, but Seattle's road schedule doesn't start off in the easiest of fashions in Buffalo.  Only one team - New England - has come into Buffalo in the past two years and handled the Bills with ease; the Seahawks are no New England.  Sure, every team is a little worse on the road (save the 2007 New York Giants), but Seattle has turned Qwest Field into one of the toughest places to play in the league; they're beatable game in and game out on the road.

Crowd noise will play its role in this Sunday's game, but as John alluded to, I expect it (or its lack thereof) to impact Seattle's defense more than its offense.  Matt Hasselbeck is a pretty unflappable quarterback, and while Ralph Wilson Stadium will surely be rocking when Buffalo's on defense, the effects on Hasselbeck's offense will probably be negligible.  The home crowd is better for Buffalo than it hurts Seattle, and that's where the real advantage is gained.  Home-field advantage gets my blood up.  I am now more pumped up about this game than I have been at any point this pre/off-season.