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Three Long Weeks...

That's right, folks.  We are just 3 weeks away from what some might consider the most important draft in this franchise's history.  And when you think about it, that may very well be true.  This team is coming off of the single worst season in Miami Dolphins history (and almost in NFL history).  They basically fired the entire coaching staff and most front office personnel.  And then they bring in the big shot, Mr. Bill Parcells, to hopefully turn this thing around.

Bill then gets right to business, bringing in a hand-picked general manager, Jeff Ireland, and a hand-picked head coach, Tony Sparano.  The three of them, the "trifecta," then basically reassemble the coaching staff from scratch, bringing aboard coaches who they are familiar with, have history with, and, most importantly, who they trust.

Then you take into consideration the number of draft picks that the Dolphins have (which could very well increase).  They are armed with 9 total draft picks and 4 of the first 64 overall selections.  With numerous holes to fill and a solid foundation that needs building, the Dolphins simply can't afford to miss on any of those top 4 picks (at the very least).  And that goes double for the number 1 overall pick alone.  With the financial investment required and, more importantly, the percentage of the cap that the player selected will consume, missing on that first overall pick would be simply catastrophic.  Yes, I know we've talked about that before, but I do not think this idea can be stressed enough.  In fact, I'm willing to say that this #1 overall pick is indeed the single most important draft pick in this franchise's history.

Yes, indeed, it's going to be a very long three weeks.

And the days and weeks leading up to this draft in particular feel even longer than usual.  Why?  Probably because the person heading the Dolphins draft room, that Parcells guy we all hear so much about, is the king of the smokescreen.  I remember back during the Scouting Combine, which feels like many moons ago, one team executive telling one of the Miami papers that the key to this year's draft is what the Dolphins will do, but not a single person has any idea what that might be.  Now, we did recently hear that the Dolphins draft board is officially set.  Of course, that means nothing to us because there's absolutely no way any team would even hint at what their board might look like.  Not with the master of smokescreens in control here in Miami.  In fact, Scott Linehan had this to say about Parcells:

"He's the master of throwing around smoke screens. I have no idea what they'll do. They could trade it with a minute to go before the first pick. No one knows. They might even have the deal done and wait until then.

You know, Scott could be right.  For all we know, the Dolphins could have a deal done already.  And that's what will make these next 3 weeks feel like 3 years.  As the ideas and rumors swirl, our intrigue, anticipation, and anxiety will continue to grow.  

Some, though, might think that we'll get a better idea on who the Dolphins will take at #1 when they open negotiations with the potential picks prior to the draft, as teams selecting first overall often do.  But I wouldn't count on it.  Even if the Dolphins do indeed open negotiations, I'd bet they will likely be in talks with all of the potential top picks (Matt Ryan, Chris Long, Jake Long, and Vernon Gholston) so as to not show their hand.  I could also envision a situation where Parcells and the Dolphins demand that the agent nor the player say a word to anyone about any contract talks, even going so far as to threaten the agent/player with passing over that particular player with the top pick if word does get out.  Because that's how Bill Parcells likes to run things.  He likes to be in control and he doesn't like people who betray his trust.  

So if anyone thinks that we'll be getting any clues as to who the Dolphins might pick first overall in the coming weeks, you probably shouldn't hold your breath.

For sure, this is going to be a very, very long three weeks...

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The Best Scenario
Is for the Phins to leap frog and trade down the draft to collect picks for this year and next year.  

The best thing New England does in the draft is get another first rounder next year.  That's how they keep their roster stacked with talent.  Watch them do it again this year, holding the 7th pick.  They'll trade down and get another first rounder next year. I hope they don't get Keith Rivers though.  At his pro day, he jumped 42".  That's higher than most receivers- he's a beast.  I would actually like to see the Phins trade down and pick this guy.  I think he'll pan out as the best LB of the draft.

by gophish on Apr 4, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

There is a reason the pats..
and other successful teams tend to trade out of such high spots. It is one well articulated by Jerry Jones recently when asked about trading up.

I'll repost his comments here as they are worth looking at again:

*****************

"I have no intent at all of moving into the top five," Jones said, while also stressing this was not a comment on McFadden's talent, but a fear factor of paying any rookie today's top-five going rate.

"A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six. It's a real negative.

"Nobody wants in there, and the teams in there, they want out. This is a very tough draft anyway when it comes to evaluating the talent, and then trying to match up that with the millions it takes to operate at the top of the draft."

*****************

If you look at the perpetual cellar dwellers of the NFL such as Detroit for instance then you can learn a lot.

The stakes at the top of the draft are the highest by far. As Jones says, the money involved and commitment can really hurt a team. Look at all the failed high draft picks for the Lions - the time they've committed to try and get those players to succeed, the money they've paid, etc. So bad is the state of the franchise that a 7 win season last year was considered pretty good.

The problem is that those teams at the top of the draft are also the ones that tend to have the worst scouting/personnel people.

I think it was Ozzie Newsome, Raven's GM with a great record, who said that being in the top 10 of the draft, say every 4-5 years is OK as you reload talent but you don't want to be there any more often.

by Natalya on Apr 4, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions  

well the key...
...is to pick players that turn out to be franchise players

the lions are a perfect example of poor talent evaluation.

Ask the Colts how crippling it was to pick 1st overall.  Or for the Saints to pick 2nd overall.  You just got to really hit on the pick, that's all.

It also worked out for the Browns, getting Joe Thomas and Braylon Edwards in the top 5 of drafts.

by Matty I on Apr 4, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right
You have to find a player thats aboslutely worth that first overall pick.

by Patssuck456 on Apr 5, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions  

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