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Mock Draft 2.0

Well it's been almost 2 months since my last mock draft, so I thought I'd put together an update to close out the week and to get some discussion going. Below is the first round as well as the Dolphins #32 pick. Let me know what you think.

1. Miami Dolphins: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
It’s beginning to become clear that the race to be the top pick (if the Dolphins can’t trade it) is now a 3 horse race between Chris Long, Jake Long, and Matt Ryan. And in all honesty, I’d be shocked if Ryan is the pick. If the Dolphins were able to sign Calvin Pace, I think Jake Long would have had a better shot to go in this top spot. But Pace went to the Jets, I’m now having a hard time believing Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland will pass up on Chris Long, a guy who can anchor their defense for years. And if you take into account all the trade talk surrounding Jason Taylor, I think it is beginning to look more and more like Howie’s son is the favorite right now.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
I originally thought that the Rams would jump on Glenn Dorsey if the Dolphins passed on him. But I think that with Jake Long’s performance at the Combine and Dorsey’s injury concerns, the Rams will take the player who is less risky. Long will be Orlando Pace’s heir apparent. Pace is reportedly going to be ready for next season, but he’s suffered season ending injuries in each of the past 2 seasons, meaning Long could get experience protecting Marc Bulger’s blind side sooner rather than later in St. Louis.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
With the signing of Michael Turner, the Falcons won’t be taking Darren McFadden. Glenn Dorsey could get some consideration if the Falcons feel like they can get a comparable quarterback to Ryan in the 2nd round. But in the end, I think the Falcons will take the young signal caller who has all the leadership skills and intangibles that an NFL quarterback needs.

4. Oakland Raiders: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
After the re-signing of Justin Fargas, I don’t think McFadden will be the pick here anymore, though you can never be too certain because Al Davis is…well…nuts. But defensive tackle was a need for the Raiders last year and that need increases following the retirement of Warren Sapp. Al Davis has never been one to shy away from risks. So despite Dorsey’s injury risks, I think he has more upside than Sedrick Ellis.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
I really think the Chiefs will address their offensive line issue and give Larry Johnson some support. He needs some holes to run through after all. I don’t think Jake Long makes it down this far, so look for KC to take the next best left tackle. It’s a bit of a reach, perhaps, but Clady is a big, strong tackle who has the ability to be a franchise left tackle.

6. New York Jets: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
With the Jets shelling out big bucks to sign Calvin Pace, my original thought that Eric Mangini and company would take Vernon Gholston has gone out the window. But the Jets also spent big bucks on a couple offensive lineman. Now they just need a young, stud running back to run through the holes in the line. McFadden has elite talent, but does have some off-the-field issues. But those issues won’t scare away the Jets from taking the draft’s most talented player all the way down at pick #6. This could prove to be the steal of the draft.

7. New England Patriots: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Yes, this team needs some young linebackers and Vernon Gholston would prove to be a good fit in their defensive scheme. But the Pats also need cornerback help if Randall Gay and Asante Samuel have left in free agency. McKelvin was always considered a first round cornerback, but after his impressive Combine, he’s probably the top corner on the board. McKelvin is very athletic and is a solid tackler. The only thing he lacks is elite size (he’s only 5’10).

8. Baltimore Ravens: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
With no quarterback worth this pick, the Ravens will turn their attention to defense. With the franchising of Terrell Suggs, Vernon Gholston will be passed up yet again. Their secondary, though, is getting old and Rodgers-Cromartie has the chance to be a special player. He’s got great size and elite speed. The only knock on him is that he played against sub-par competition.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Vernon Gholson, DE, Ohio St.
The Bengals need a pass rush, especially after losing Justin Smith in free agency. Gholston is an ideal fit for them because of how versatile he is. It’s been rumored the Bengals wanted to make the switch to the 3-4 defense. But with the inability to land a big NT this year, they will likely remain in a 4-3. However, drafting Gholston allows Cincy to consider switching to a 3-4 a year or two down the road because he could play the OLB spot. He’s a physical freak and the Bengals should be thrilled to land him if they can.

10. New Orleans Saints: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Saints seem to always need help at corner. Yes, they signed Randall Gay. But Gay, at best, is a solid #2 corner. Jenkins has the ability to become a #1 and will help sure up that secondary. The Saints also need linebackers, though, so don’t be shocked if Keith Rivers is the pick here.

Now I'll quickly run down the rest of round 1 (and Miami’s #32 pick):

11. Buffalo Bills: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
12. Denver Broncos: Keith Rivers, LB, USC
13. Carolina Panthers: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
14. Chicago Bears: Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt
15. Detroit Lions: Aquib Talib, CB, Kansas
16. Arizona Cardinals: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
17. Minnesota Vikings: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
18. Houston Texans: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
19. Philadelphia Eagles: DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal
20. Tampa Bay Bucs: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
21. Washington Redskins: Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
22. Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brandon Albert, OG, Virginia
24. Tennessee Titans: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
27. San Diego Chargers: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
28. Dallas Cowboys: James Hardy, WR, Indiana
29. San Francisco 49ers: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St.
30. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
31. New York Giants: Dan Connor, LB, Penn St.
32. Miami Dolphins: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

So there you have it. Thoughts below…

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Good Mock...
NE & Oakland might be the wild cards in the top 10. Otherwise, I think you are on the money for a good 7-8 of those picks.

The raiders could easily pick McFadden (Despite having had 1000+ yard rusher Fargas) as they tend to be interested in athletes more than football players. That would have Dorsey dropping a bit, potentially to #9 (Cincy).

by Natalya on Mar 7, 2008 12:24 PM EST   0 recs

Looks about right....
In terms of what MIA will do. I think it make sense to go with C.Long at the top becuase OT is so deep. We could even be looking at J.Otah if he falls. Also Sam Baker of USC and Carl Nicks of Nebraska would be in the running at #32. I wouldn't mind at all if we do take Jake Long #1 and then target someone like Justin King CB PSU at #32.

by nicholasriehl on Mar 7, 2008 12:49 PM EST   0 recs

Three things I gotta say about Chris Long at #1
Here is the list by scout.com of DEs in the draft, ranked 4 stars or better after the combine:

http://profootballexperts.scout.com/a.z?s=211&p=9&c=12&yr=2008&nid=83&lnid=124&a mp;rc=4&pid=23

 Name Yr Ht/Wt/40 College Home
DE 1  Chris Long SR 6-3.5/278/4.75 Virginia Charlottesville, VA
DE 2  Derrick Harvey JR 6-4/260/4.75 Florida Greenbelt, MD
DE 3  Quentin Groves SR 6-3/252/4.43 Auburn Greenville, MS
DE 4  Phillip Merling JR 6-5/270/4.80 Clemson Cordova, TN
DE 5  Vernon Gholston JR 6-3/260/4.75 Ohio State Detroit, MI
DE 6  Calais Campbell JR 6-7/280/4.75 Miami (FL) Denver, CO
DE 7  Chris Ellis SR 6-4/257/4.70 Virginia Tech Hampton, VA
DE 8  Lawrence Jackson SR 6-5/270/4.90 USC Inglewood, CA
DE 9  Cliff Avril SR 6-3/255/- Purdue Green Cove Springs, FL
DE 10  Darrell Robertson SR 6-4/245/4.75 Georgia Tech Jonesboro, GA
DE 11  Kenneth Iwebema Jr. SR 6-3.5/263/4.89 Iowa Arlington, TX

  1. The draft is deep and DE is not the biggest need on the Dolphins at this time, even if they trade JT.
  2. He is a little short under BP's system to play DE, so the move to OLB makes sense.
  3. We have bolstered the DL in FA.  Pick up a starting CB, and the D will be good.  What are we going to do to improve our horrid Offense?
Please let us trade down!!!  :)

by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 7, 2008 1:08 PM EST   0 recs

Please let us trade down!!!
Yes please.

A DE in a 3-4 with the #1 pick? Not to mention its not a "need" position for us. If OT and DE are that deep in the draft best go with the OT, its the more important postion.

Even though Sapp did retire, I can't see Al Davis missing out on have Russel at QB and McFadden at RB. Thats 2 pretty good young studs to build your offense around.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 7, 2008 1:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

As odd as it sounds to say this....
I completely agree with you Neo.

:)

If you gotta take someone at #1, take someone on Offense.  And I have come to believe that our plan at QB is, 1) Find out about Beck, 2) Draft a QB in rd 2 or 3, 3) possible play McCown.

So take Jake.  He is the one guy that we can't get in FA, this year or most likely next.

But it just sucks that it is so deep in the positions we need, and so thin in guys that stand out at the top.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 7, 2008 1:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I want
Jake Long or Matt Ryan if we stay at #1 (Gholston a distant 3rd option). I've made no secret of this. The thought of using another 2nd rounder on a QB makes me throw up in my mouth a lil bit. But hey whatever Bill/Jeff decide to do is fine by me. Until that is, they start pulling "Cam Cams" on us.

God help me if we draft Chris Long and Bill, Jeff, or Tony come out saying something about Howie. I don't wanna hear about any player's F'n family.

"It all starts with the Dolphins," an executive with another team said Sunday, "and not a single person here has any idea what they're going to do."

by Neo on Mar 7, 2008 1:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

the thing is...
....Chris Long is not a DE in a 3-4. He's an OLB. And he'd be the perfect replacement for Jason Taylor if he does get traded (and I still think he will).

With that said, if the Fins take either Long #1, I'll be happy.

by Matty I on Mar 7, 2008 5:24 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I see the other Long
The smart way to go would be to get the OT, the bext one inthe draft. Extreme drop off after that!

Groves is just as good as C. Long.  He dropped becuase Tebow broke three of his toes. And he missed three games. When he came back he played outside backer for three games....He is exact type of player Parcels wants!

Too young to remember 72...not old enough to forget about ever other year since!

by JGray on Mar 7, 2008 1:24 PM EST   0 recs

I think I like Groves better also, but we won't
get him unless we pick him in the first round. I would guess he is absolutely gone by the 32nd pick.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 7, 2008 1:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well...
You may be right, Matty. Got any video on that BC kid? Not familiar with him.

I personally think we'll have a tough time getting what Jason Taylor is worth on a trade; both what his value is to us, AND especially finding someone willing to give up 2 high picks, plus take on his pretty hefty contract.

We're in great shape cap-wise & haven't blown our wad on overhyped free agents, so here's my wish:

  1. Keep the only Pro Bowler left on the team. Keep Jason Taylor. It's not like we can't afford him, he's obviously going to contribute, and is NO RISK!
  2. Jake Long with the #1 pick. Ask Cleveland about that philosophe. He's a low risk, no brainer who could be the next Richmond Webb, and complete our line, open lanes & protect Beck's blind side.
  3. Joe Flacco with the #32 pick. He's our insurance policy for '09 if John Beck doesn't light it up this year.
After that, go for best available WR, TE, CB & Safety.

That's my Oh Two.

by davehowardcustom on Mar 7, 2008 1:37 PM EST   0 recs

in a nutshell:
Why use the #1 pick in the draft (hopefully a once in a lifetime draft pick) to replace a perennial Pro Bowler & NFL defensive MVP? Wouldn't it be better serving us to KEEP that Pro Bowler, team captain & NFL "Man of the Year," and ADD a future Pro Bowl Offensive Lineman? "Two fish with one stone!"

by davehowardcustom on Mar 7, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

you are reading my mind...
Dave...I am with you on everything except Jason Taylor.  I am a fan of the Dolphins first and I would be happy with a complete rebuild.  Dump the first pick if we can... if not then take Jake Long, the guy is giant. Chris Long is not long enough or heavy enough.  If Jason Taylor can go to a winner and we can get 2 or 3 middle round picks for him, I say go for it.  That would give one of our future players another year to develop.  Plus, Jason Taylor(12yrs) is not the only quality veteran we have on defense... Jason Ferguson(12yrs), Vonnie Holliday(11yrs), Joey Porter(10yrs) and Will Allen(8yrs)... and who needs that much tutelage from players when you have Parcells and the staff that he has put together?

by misterx on Mar 7, 2008 2:00 PM EST   0 recs

Matty...
in light of this mock draft etc, would you consider putting up a poll basically asking - if we believe the dolphins will be able to trade down from #1 overall?

by Natalya on Mar 7, 2008 2:17 PM EST   0 recs

Ask...
...and you shall receive.  New poll listed in the "diaries" section.

by Matty I on Mar 7, 2008 5:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Jake Long
We need to draft a LT or it won't matter who plays QB next year whether it was Beck or Ryan.  With out a franchise LT they will be running for there life.  Secure the offensive line and we will have a chance to see if Beck is or not the man of this franchise.

by JohnDolphin73 on Mar 7, 2008 3:33 PM EST   0 recs

Chis Long I Agree
I don't see how we can pass on him....non stop motor freaky physical skills...natural born leader on Defense...some one like him does not come along that often....He has Zach's Fire!!

by MassFinFan65 on Mar 7, 2008 4:02 PM EST   0 recs

I think you have to look at his role
He would likely be playing OLB.  When you look at the most pressing team needs, that is not one of the priorities.  That is probably the biggest reason to pass on him.

by LeftCoastFinFan on Mar 7, 2008 4:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Agree that...
LT is a more pressing need than OLB or even DE.

There are variables though. Chris Long seems like a tailor-made Bill Parcell's player (tough, hard working, blue-collar sort of guy) and he's probably a safer pick. By safe I mean, he probably won't get you 15 sacks a year, but then he probably won't be a bust either. In other words, an above average player who can develop into a team leader and get you say 7-9 sacks/year plus being a good run defender.

Is that good enough to justify going #1 overall?

Maybe not, but there aren't any great prospects out there.

Jake Long could potentially fill a bigger need. However, I know there are questions about him. Namely, is he more suited to being a RT than LT? Given run-blocking is his forte, this is not a trivial question.

Then you have Ryan who, in the Manning-Big Ben-Rivers draft, would be ranked 4th, behind those 3. Do you take a $35M+ gamble on him? When you have a 2nd rounder already on the team...?

by Natalya on Mar 7, 2008 5:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Not realy
So your gonna to tell me that in 2 years your still gonna stick to your word and say that chris long is better than vernon.The only downfall on vernon is that his motor gos off at times and thats workable.But chris long has almost hit hes max ability,vernon is stronger and faster than chris and i beleve you;ve only seen half off his abilitys.If you put that kid with the right team and coachen and he starts playen with full patential your gonna see a player twice as good as chris long with no problem.............

by lionel on Mar 7, 2008 5:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Chris Long is the smart pick
We should either draft him or J.Long.

by Patssuck456 on Mar 8, 2008 9:42 AM EST   0 recs

My take on things
When it comes to it, I think it still will be one of the Longs.  That guy Mike Maylock on the NFL Network thinks it will be Matt Ryan, but I think the problem last year was both on the defensive and offensive line.  This despite the fact that we had Jason Taylor, we could not stop the run at all.  I think through FA we have got some help at DT, but Chris Long is a motor guy that Parcells likes so that would be a good pick. However, Jake Long would definitely lock down the RT position for years to come, but the draft is deep at that position so who knows.  But look how the Browns did after drafting their RT last year.

If we trade Jason Taylor, than it will be a no brainer and be Chris Long, but right now it looks like Jake Long will be in Miami after April.  So I have to disagree with you on that.  If Jake is taken then look for us to go either QB or DB in the second round.  Does not matter who we go for, Flacco, Brohm or Heine as long as we get one of them.  One of these guys will give us backup support for the future.

by resman on Mar 8, 2008 12:29 PM EST   0 recs

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