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Around the AFC East: Part I

This week, I'm going to handle the "Around the AFC East" segment a little differently, breaking it down to 3 parts so that it isn't as overwhelming. So this is part I of the segment this week. First up, it's the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Rumblings' own Brian G:

Phinsider: Buffalo was ranked 30th overall in total offense last season. What's going to be the one key to improving Buffalo's offense? Is it the continued development of J.P. Losman or the impact Marshawn Lynch is going to have on both the running and passing game? Or is it going to be something else all together?

Buffalo Rumblings: Choice D- All of the above. Our offense made a lot of big plays last year and we scored a lot of points in the second half of the season, but we were never able to consistently drive the ball down the field on a consistent basis. A lot of the potential success we'll have this year will be based on how quickly the offense as a whole can gel.

We've got a brand-new offensive line, and they're big/athletic/strong, something that hasn't been seen in Buffalo for quite some time. We have a newly implemented H-Back position, where we'll be using tight ends much like Chris Cooley used to be utilized in Washington. We have depth at wideout, depth at running back (with receiving talent!) and tight ends who should benefit from improved offensive line play. The result is an unprecedented number of players that can run outside and in, make catches short and deep and be effective in the red zone.

To me, it's on Losman. The pieces are in place, but he's going to have to do something he's rarely done at the NFL level: lead. This is his team now - last season proved he has the physical talent, but he needs to be a lot more assertive in the huddle and on the sidelines, and he needs to prove that he can get his team out of tough jams. If he can do that, the sky is the limit for our offense.

My take: Maybe it's my bias against the Bills, but I am just having a hard time buying into all this JP Losman hype. And it isn't just Bills fans. The mainstream media also seems to be all over Losman's junk and I am yet to see why. I think he's an adaquate starting QB. But I can't see him evolve into a top 15 NFL quarterback. But I guess only time will tell.

[editor's note, by Phinatic] Let me clarify top 15 QB. I'm not talking statistically. Stats are misleading. What I mean is that there are at least 15 QBs I'd take a head of Losman if I was picking a QB to be my starter this year. I don't ever think J.P. Losman will EVER become that kind of QB. And, by all means, if you'd like a list of the 15 QBs, I'd be happy to provide it. Bottom line: JP Losman really isn't that good. Period.

Also, be sure to head over to Buffalo Rumblings to see my response to Brian's question.

I'll be back later with the part II of "Around the AFC East."

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Top 15 quarterback
JP's already there! Was he not the 11th-rated passer in the NFL last season?
Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 29, 2007 9:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What I mean is....
...that there are at least 15 QBs I'd take before taking Losman.  When I say top 15 QB, I do not mean statistically.  Stats are misleading, especially with QBs.  Not to mention the QB rating formula is a joke.

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phinatic & Others...
I'm curious, about this whole top 15 QB thing. What are your top 15 QB's if you say stats are misleading?

Please put your top 15 here.

by Natalya on Jun 29, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I sure will
oh...and by the way, I'e ditched the "Phinatic" name for my real name...it was time...lol

My top 15 in no particular order, or rather, these are QBs I'd take on my team before JP Losman:

  1. Manning
  2. Brady
  3. Brees
  4. Palmer
  5. Bulger
  6. McNabb
  7. Hasselbeck
  8. Young
  9. Rivers
  10. Leinart
  11. Cutler
  12. Favre
  13. Alex Smith
  14. Eli Manning
  15. Delhomme
  16. Mike Vick
  17. McNair
----------------------------------
These next ones are players that I think will be better than Losman but have little or no experience:

J Russell
B Croyle
M Schaub
J Beck

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I almost gave you props
For leaving John Beck off that list, but there he is, snuck him in at the bottom of the list. I consider myself a homer, to be sure, but I think you got the sickness worse than I do.

I'll give you the first 7 names on that list, Favre and maybe McNair. ALEX SMITH?! Alex... wait, you didn't say... yeah, it does say Alex Smith. Good Lord. If there's any player in the NFL who screams "I'm vastly overrated because I was a #1 pick", it's Alex Freaking Smith.

Can you even count Mike Vick? He's not even a real quarterback in my book... and he hasn't been that successful at this level either, save the one good playoff run. Bark bark.

And the fact that you put Brodie Croyle on that list makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. That's like, Alex Smith squared.

Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 29, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

About Alex Smith.
Alex Smith did show great improvment last year, as did Losman.

He's not a great player by any means though but he's not overrated either.

by Patssuck456 on Jun 29, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Losman...
...I hate to break it to you, but averaging 190 yards per game and throwing 19 TDs and 14 TDs is not a good QB.

Not to mention the fact that Lee Evans was so wide open at times last year that I could have made those throws.  

Instead of bashing Alex Smith and Mike Vick (I hate Vick, but he's better than Losman), why don't you give me some actual points as to why you think Losman is better then any of those 17 on the list.

Those 4 at the bottom are just guys that I think WILL be better than Losman, not that are already.  The top 17 are the ones I feel are simply better than Losman.  

As far as Beck goes, we shall see.  But there isn't any reason to think Beck won't be at least as effective as Losman is.

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure!
How about that over the second half of the season (against teams that had a combined record of 77-51), Losman averaged 205 yards a game (in crappy Buffalo weather, no less), threw 12 of those 19 touchdowns and led his (bad) team to a .500 record - better than their 3-5 start.

The second half of last season is where Losman proved his worth. As I mentioned in answering your question, he needs to continue to mature and to become a leader. If he does that, yes, J.P. Losman will be a Top-10 quarterback in the NFL. Bank on it.

Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 29, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's no way...
...Losman will NEVER be a top 10 QB.

Bank on THAT!

I'd bet nearly anything on it.  

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would be difficult to bet
because you have such a bizarre concept of "Top 10 QB". There'd be no way to really define it, because you're going off of your opinion, while I'm going off of real-life NFL statistics, which say Losman was the #11-ranked quarterback in the NFL last season. He's almost there as it is.

I'd love to make that bet with you based on statistical fact.

Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 29, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

stats
Have you even ever looked into the QB Rating?  It's a terrible way to judge QBs.  You should have looked into it before calling the QB rating system "statistical fact."

For example:  which line would you rather have?

20/25, 200yds, 2TD, 1Int
or
20/30, 280yds, 2TD, 1Int

I'd go for the 2nd option.  But that line has a rating of 104.9, while the above one has a rating of 112.1.  I'd say that's a flawed system.

Or how about these 2:

20/30, 280yds, 2TD, 1Int
or
20/32, 220yds, 3TD, 1Int

I don't know about you, but I'd go for the one with more points on the board, which is the 2nd option.  But the second option only has a QB rating of 101 while the first option has one of 104.9.

That's a flawed system and THAT is a FACT!!!!

End of story on the QB rating debate!

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: "End of Story"
Is it really the end of the story? You do make a compelling point, but that point doesn't allow you to totally discount QB rating in this discussion.

I agree with you on the second set of stats - more points is better. But in the first group, I honestly would rather have the first line - it shows a more balanced, efficient offense, which is what Losman is going to lead. He needs to be a game manager.

QB rating is about measuring the EFFECTIVENESS of a quarterback. That's why the system takes into account completion percentage and TD%. I'll agree that it isn't the best way to measure a quarterback's true value to a franchise, but it DOES statistically prove how effective a quarterback is.

In the end, though, the only stat that really matters is wins. Last time I checked, the "overrated" Losman beat your Dolphins twice last year. Methinks he's got your number... :)

Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 29, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh
"Last time I checked, the "overrated" Losman beat your Dolphins twice last year. Methinks he's got your number... :)" - Brian G

I can't argue that...yet.  I got a feeling this season is going to be different.

Oh, and in one of those games, Losman was terrible but Daunte was even worse.

by Matty I on Jun 30, 2007 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

About your list

Bulger in the top 5? Cutler is not better than Favre and Leinart and Young are not top 10 QBs.
Eli and Mike Vick shouldn't be on that list.
No offense but that list is flawed, Matt.
You have too many young guys to high on the list.

by Patssuck456 on Jun 29, 2007 8:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the list...
...was in no particular order

and Marc Bulger is, without a doubt, a top 5 QB.  Look at the numbers.  He's a very good QB.

by Matty I on Jun 29, 2007 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's a good QB
But I don't think he's top 10 worthy.

by Patssuck456 on Jun 29, 2007 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough..
...but just out of curiosity, who would your top 10 be?  I'd be interested in hearing who you think is better than Bulger.

by Matty I on Jun 30, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK here's my list

  1. Brady
  2. Manning
  3. Brees
  4. Palmer
  5. McNabb
  6. Hasselbeck
  7. Mcnair
  8. Rothlesburger
  9. Rivers
  10. Favre
  11. Cutler
  12. Smith
  13. Bulger
  14. Romo
  15. Eli

by Patssuck456 on Jun 30, 2007 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Talking Stats
He had 19 touchdowns with LEE EVANS on his team! Lee Evans is arguably the best receiver in this league. Mike Vick is a horrible passer and he threw 20 with terrible receivers. I'm not completely suggesting that J.P. Losman will be terrible in the pros, but as of right now its a hard sell. Emotionally he reminds me too much of Ryan Leaf. He hasn't flipped out yet, but he may.

by bigmac503x on Jun 30, 2007 12:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Losman
I'm also not saying that Losman will be terrible. If I have, that's just my disdain for the Bills shining through. But I don't think he'll be a top 15 NFL QB. And the QB rating isn't a good way to judge top 15 QBs.

by Matty I on Jun 30, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

really?
You think He's better than Steve Smith or Chad Johnson or Terell Owens or Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss or Hines Ward?

by Patssuck456 on Jun 30, 2007 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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