Derek Anderson: Not the Answer for the Dolphins
Earlier today, a diary was made about the PFT rumor that said the Dolphins could very well be interested in Browns QB Derek Anderson once this offseason rolls around. Now, PFT mentions a Cleveland radio host as the source of this rumor. But this wasn't the only place I've heard this rumor. I can't remember if it was ESPNews or NFL Network but I was recently watching a show that also talked about how the Dolphins might make a play on Anderson in the offseason.
So what would it take to pry Anderson out of Cleveland? Since he's a restricted free agent, it will depend on how the Browns decide to handle the situation. In all likelihood, the Browns will at least make the highest tender offer, meaning any team who signs Anderson away from Cleveland will have to surrender their 1st and 3rd round pick. For the Dolphins, this is a ridiculously high price considering they have the #1 overall pick in April's draft.
Is Derek Anderson even worth it? This is something I wanted to decide. And first thing first, the only game I watched from start to finish with Anderson starting (besides the Dolphins/Browns game) was this past week's Browns/Bengals game. And Anderson did not look good at all, making some terrible decisions. The one thing I noticed was that Anderson stuggled mightily when under pressure. So with that in mind, I decided to look at his stats when under pressure (as defined by SI.com). I've compared his numbers to that of Miami's two current QBs, Cleo Lemon and John Beck.
| Player | Com/Att | Pct | Yds | TD-Int | Rating |
| Derek Anderson | 19/59 | 32% | 293 | 2-6 | 21.3 |
| Cleo Lemon | 16/41 | 39% | 130 | 0-3 | 17.3 |
| John Beck | 5/17 | 29% | 24 | 0-1 | 15.1 |
Hmmm...Anderson's numbers don't even make me confident enough to say he's even that much better than Cleo and John. Sure, you could look at his overall season and totals and call me crazy. After all, 3,600 yards and 28 touchdowns are nothing to sneeze at, that's for sure. But you need to consider the facts here. Anderson has two great talents in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to throw to and he's got a solid running game to keep the defense honest. Oh, and his offensive line has played very, very well all season long (which is why he has only 18 more pass attempts under pressure despite having 219 more total pass attempts). Maybe that could be why Anderson has put up the numbers that he has.
Still think Anderson is worth giving up the #1 overall pick? That's fine. Your entitled to your opinion. But here's one other statistical analysis to look at. Let's look at the percentage of inaccurate passes for each of the three quarterbacks:
| Anderson | Lemon | Beck | |
| Batted down at line | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Overthrown | 7.3% | 6% | 4.7% |
| Underthrown | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Thrown wide | 7.9% | 9% | 11.6% |
| Interceptions | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| Bad pass percentage | 24.5% | 23.1% | 23.3% |
So what did we learn? Well, first of all, we learned that if Beck could just stop throwing so many passes wide of the receiver, he could have a much better completion percentage. Now getting back to the topic, I think this here shows all I need to know about Derek Anderson. If we think Cleo Lemon has been bad as QB, Anderson has actually been more inaccurate than Cleo has. Is that the kind of QB we want under center? And is Anderson worth anything close to the #1 overall pick? Not a chance in hell. If anything, I learned from this statistical look at things that John Beck isn't as far away from being a productive NFL QB than many thought. With an improved offensive line and a playmaker or two on offense, John could potentially be a productive NFL QB sooner rather than later.
But most importantly, Derek Anderson is not the solution to the Miami Dolphins' quarterback problem. If anything, bringing Anderson to Miami in the offseason would simply be a perfect example of how the Dolphins got into this mess to begin with. And despite his impressive track record, it would really make me question the logic of Bill Parcells and his ability to turn this team around.
Thoughts?
0 recs |
18 comments
Comments
Thanks Matty
by bassman on Dec 27, 2007 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anderson
by jvw on Dec 27, 2007 3:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
great analysis
I also dont want DA and i think trading for a yet another yet is just stupid. Either stick with beck or draft another guy like Ryan or Brennan.
by YatilGinnJr on Dec 27, 2007 3:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anderson who?
This, couldn't be a rumor, cause is plain dumb, only to think about it.
Bassman just said it "keep Beck, bring in a serviceable veteran (McCown?), and draft a late rd QB", that is logic at his best.
Ps. Sorry Logic, but the Lemon without juice, have to go.
by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't like DA too
by Neo on Dec 27, 2007 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Are you joking?
by Patssuck456 on Dec 27, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis!
This being said: name him your starter next year. Trade for a proven back up or aged veteran for the second slot and late round draft for the third slot. Culpepper and Green were both pulled in to start and look what happened. Don't go there again.
The way I see it with Parcells, his draft picks have gotten alot of praise. Was it because he picked great talent or was it because he knows how to develop kids into great players. He is a master at picking players he can develop and unless he sees one (QB) in the draft, he will stick with Beck. This is what I am excited to see. We haven't seen any "fire" from any of the QB's this year, but that is soon to change.
by Thruthickandt on Dec 27, 2007 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can we trade for Cleveland's O-line and receivers?
I think Parcells is smart enough not to throw away the #1 pick on a guy like Anderson (This is all speculation anyway.... which is why PFT can be a bit out there sometimes and their rumors should always be taken with a grain of salt).
Anyway, get Beck the same supporting cast Anderson has. THAT'S the answer.
by The Dude on Dec 27, 2007 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And..
Ps, even Wanny could get fired from hownership ; )
by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
just tired
So after what seems like decades of picking since one R webb was taken, Miami has the opportunity to draft a LT with probowl potential in this draft... finally!!!! And just like cleveland found out, you may actually have the QB of the future ON YOUR ROSTER if you find the talent needed to protect him.
So, while not opposed to trading a first rounder for a actual NFL QB, I am opposed if it is lieu of drafting a stud LT.
by W NY Fins Fan on Dec 27, 2007 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Numbers
If a solid core is there and kept from their last couple of drafts, then the suffering won't be so bad. From what I see and hear, Jason Allen, Rod Wright, Matt Roth from 2006, and Ginn Jr, Beck, Satele, and Booker, Ronnie Brown, Derek Hagan, display NFL talent. They just need to be more consistent. Also, the rookie punter will improve as well. He sure needs to.
What this team needs is to develop good depth. That's what sets good/great teams apart. They have tremendous depth. Miami flubbed on their draft picks until 2005. That's why Miami's Special Team plays are - well - not so special.
I don't think it's wise to judge whether or not Beck is bad. He actually directed some nice drives and held his own amidst horrid pressure. Seeing what he played with, it's really hard to tell. But he "lives and breathes football," which tells me he's a Parcells guy. You didn't hear pro scouts screaming bloody murder for the Dolphins drafting him instead of Quinn - just "media types." The Dolphins' QB coach is the person who trained Quinn for the draft. What does that say? It tells me that the jury found him "not so good." I agree, some of those games Beck looked bad, but judging a rookie QB with no developed playmakers on a bad overall team isn't fair.
I believe it would be a grave mistake for Parcells and the Dolphins to go after a Knucklehead like Anderson for a QB. He's just as unproven. No, I'd rather do what Parcells is thinking - keep the good or best, then build around them, filling in the holes.
I'm just waiting to exhale on what Parcells is gonna do........ starting next week.
by Alpha6 on Dec 27, 2007 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
H'ow come no one is talking about.......
by clownfish on Dec 27, 2007 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here we go again..
by Aleta on Dec 27, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How is McNabb old or a temporary fix?
by clownfish on Dec 27, 2007 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Feelin' the Love
For one thing, some people seem to have him confused with the last couple of QBs we've picked up in FA. Unlike Culpepper and Green, Derek Anderson is not past his prime and is not trying to make an iffy recovery from potentially career-ending injuries. He's 24 yrs. old, people.
For another thing, I don't get the strong preference for another drafted QB over trading for Anderson. A brand new draftee is a complete unknown as an NFL QB. Anderson has already been a starting NFL QB for a year, and has demonstrated he can lead a team, keep his head, win, etc. To me, using a draft pick on Anderson at this stage in his career is a much better bet than using one on a complete unknown.
Now let's compare Anderson to John Beck, the guy we're currently counting on becoming our franchise QB of the future. For starters, Anderson is 2 yrs. younger than Beck. That's 2 more years to learn and grow. Add the year that Anderson's already played while Cameron had Beck on the bench, and it's really 3 more years to learn and grow into the job. Plus, Anderson has demonstrated on-field ability that Beck has not. Clearly, that's largely not Beck's fault, but just comparing the 2 of them as prospective franchise QBs, it doesn't matter whose fault it is; the relevant fact is that Anderson has demonstrated more ability and more promise than Beck has. Anderson also has better size -- he's 6'6". That seems likely to come in handy from time to time while we rebuild our O-line.
Let me be clear: I'm not saying Derek Anderson is guaranteed to be a franchise QB and the Dolphins should go after him as hard as they can. I'm just saying the level of negativity about him here strikes me as irrational. Anderson simply is not a has-been like Green and Culpepper, or a career back-up like Lemon and Feeley and Fiedler and Lucas, or a complete NFL unknown like any QB in next year's draft class. He's younger than any QB on our roster, bigger than any QB on our roster, has more experience than anybody on our roster, and has more proven ability than anybody on our roster and infinitely more than anybody in the upcoming draft, any or all of whom may be complete busts in the NFL.
Compared to any of those options, Anderson, at 24, strikes me as the clearly superior choice. As that more experienced guy who comes in and pushes Beck, he strikes me as a better choice than most of what's available. As that younger guy who we bring to and try to develop into a franchise QB in case Beck busts, he strikes me as the best option available.
All that said, I still think the Browns (and probably other teams) will overvalue him this off-season, so he really isn't a realistic option.
by urbino on Dec 27, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess I can only speak for myself...
by bassman on Dec 27, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
Anderson was a whole lot better this year, then last, and much of that has to do with the protection the o-line has given him.
by W NY Fins Fan on Dec 27, 2007 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 
















