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Dolphins vs Patriots: Prediction Time

It's that time of the week again. It's time to make our predictions for Sunday's game. But first, let's see who the "experts" are picking (hmmm...I wonder):

Chris Mortensen - NE Adam Schefter - NE Mark Schlereth - NE
Tom Jackson - NE Cris Carter - NE PFT - NE
Peter King - NE Jason Cole - NE Michael Silver - NE
Pete Prisco - NE Harmon Forecast - NE Dave Richard - NE

Not one person went out on a limb and picked the Dolphins. Surprised? Me neither.

But I'm not about to give the Dolphins no chance to win this game, as many in the media seem to think. I think that if the Dolphins can just make a couple of plays, they can certainly hang with the Patriots and even pull off the win.

The Dolphins are one of the most physical teams in the NFL and that's going to play to their advantage on Sunday. The Patriots are beat a little bit on both their offensive and defensive lines. If the Dolphins can control the line of scrimmage and dominate up front - on both sides of the ball - they could very well surprise a lot of people.

So what do I think? I don't know if the Dolphins will win. But I'd be rather surprised to see the Dolphins get blown out on Sunday. I think this game will actually be close. And if the Dolphins can make it to the fourth quarter in a tight game, I'll take my chances.

My Week 9 Locks
Dolphins +10.5 over Patriots
- Like I said, I don't have a feeling one way or the other about who will win. But I think the Dolphins are getting disrespected with these very high point spread.
Ravens -2.5 over Bengals - This is the time of the year when the "cream rises to the top." That means it's time for the Bengals to start sinking.
Jaguars -6.5 over Chiefs - I look for a big dose of MJD against KC. The Chiefs might keep it close for a half or so, but the Jaguars will pull away late.
Packers -9.5 over Bucs - Tampa just stinks and the Packers have too much offensive firepower for the Bucs to keep up with.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 13-11

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Dolphins/Patriots Final Injury Report

Key injuries for both teams, so let's take a look.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Doubtful
Channing Crowder, LB (shoulder)
Jason Ferguson, NT (elbow)

Notes
-Tony Sparano said that he's "on the fence" about Crowder's availability on Sunday.
-Reggie Torbor would again replace Crowder if he can't go.
-Paul Soliai would replace Ferguson.

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Dolphins vs Patriots: Miami's Keys to Victory

I'll take some more of this, please.

I'll take some more of this, please.

Huge. There's no way around it. That's what Sunday's game between the Dolphins and the Patriots up in Foxborough is. It's huge - for the Dolphins, at least.

A win up in New England would pull the Dolphins within one game of the division lead and give the Dolphins a 4-0 record within the division - which would mean a win over Buffalo later on in the year would give the Dolphins the tie-breaker over the Patriots regardless of how their second meeting plays out in Miami. So let's be real about this game - it's a season-defining game, though at this point I think every game for the Dolphins is critical. But that's what putting yourself in a 2-4 hole does - it magnifies every game from here on out.

So what do the Dolphins have to do to leave Foxborough with a win for the second consecutive time? A lot, of course. But these three factors are among the most important.

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure
This is probably the most obvious key for the Dolphins - and yet it's also the most important. We know how dominant New England's passing attack can be. In my opinion, there is no better duo at the wide receiver position than Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They each have their own strengths and roles and they compliment each other absolutely perfectly.

It's no coincidence that the Patriots have the second best passing offense in the NFL and have been sacked the third fewest times all season. It's also no coincidence that in two of their last three losses with Tom Brady under center, it's been outstanding, relentless pass rushes that have slowed New England's dynamic offense - scoring just 23 combined points in those two games. The two games I'm referring to, of course, are the Super Bowl against the Giants back in February of 2008 and the Pats' week two loss to the Jets back in September. In each of those games, Tom Brady was under constant duress. The Giants got to Brady for five sacks. The Jets didn't actually record any sacks. But if you watched that game, you'd know that the various blitz packages the Jets were sending did enough to force Brady to have to throw the football well before he wanted to.

In those two games, Brady connected on just 55% of his throws and averaged just 5.07 yards per attempt. That's the blueprint the Dolphins will look to follow on Sunday.

To accomplish this, the Dolphins will obviously need big performances out of Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. But it goes beyond just those two. Randy Starks has been outstandthing this year and another big performance out of him would be terrific. Cameron Wake has been quiet since his big week against Buffalo, but I think we might see a little bit more of him on Sunday. I also expect t o see more of those safety blitzes we saw last week with Gibril  Wilson and Yeremiah Bell.

The Pats will likely be without starting left tackle Matt Light, which means the Dolphins should have even more opportunities to get to Brady. They can't let those opportunities go to waste.

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Dolphins vs Patriots: Game Capsule

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-4) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)

SERIES

 

DOLPHINS

PATRIOTS

SERIES LEADER

48-36

STREAKS

3 of past 4

COACHES VS. OPP.

Sparano: 1-1

Belichick: 11-9

LAST WEEK

W 30-25 at Jets

Bye (Wk. 7: W 35-7 at Buccaneers in London)

LAST GAME

11/23/08: Patriots 48 at Dolphins 28.  New England QB Matt Cassel passes for 415 yards with 3 TDs - his 2nd straight 400-yard game - & adds 8-yard TD run. 

LAST GAME AT SITE

9/21/08: Dolphins 38, Patriots 13.  Miami RB Ronnie Brown accounts for 5 TDs (4 rush, 1 pass) as Dolphins halt New England's NFL-record 21-game regular-season win streak.

BROADCAST

CBS (1:00 PM ET): Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf.  SIRIUS: 153 (Mia.), 122 (NE).  XM: 108 (NE). 

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Dolphins in the red zone: Week 8

This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel.  Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations?  Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone.

On Sunday, both red zone offense and red zone defense were critical for the Dolphins.  Offensively, the Dolphins were only in the red zone one time - a sad commentary on who ineffective they were on offense, of course.  But nonetheless, the Dolphins converted on the one time they made it down there, and that was simply huge.

The Jets had just scored to cut Miami's lead to 24-19 late in the third quarter.  But the Dolphins answered with a critical 13 play drive that ate up nearly eight minutes.  On that drive, they converted three crucial third downs.  Then once they got inside the 20, the Dolphins relied on a tough 7 yard run by Ricky Williams and a defensive holding penalty to get down to the 5 yard line.  That's when Chad Henne faked the hand off to Ronnie Brown, rolled out right, and threw an accurate pass on the run with a defender closing in to Joey Haynos for the touchdown.  And give credit to Haynos, who did an excellent job of selling his "block" just enough to keep the defender honest and a step behind when he broke right for his pattern.  Maybe it's just me, but I want to see more of Haynos in the coming weeks.

With their one red zone conversions, the Dolphins are now scoring touchdowns on 63% of their red zone trips - a solid ratio for sure.

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Hey Jason, tell us how you really feel...

Incase you needed another reason to love Jason Taylor.  As if his return home to Miami this season wasn't enough of a reason to love that man, I offer you this.

Jason Taylor recently taped an interview for Sirius NFL Radio that will air on Friday.  But ESPN's Tim Graham got a hold of some of what Taylor said and posted it in his blog.  I just wanted to highlight a couple of JT's quotes.

How happy were you to have the opportunity to score a touchdown on Sunday against the Jets, Jason?

"To score a touchdown in New York against the Jets in the last time I'll be in the hellhole they call a stadium up there before they get rid of it and move to the new one, it was outstanding."

Why do you dislike Jet fans so much, Jason?

"It's the times like this where you beat them and they just keep talking. They just keep going, and they just don't know when to be quiet."

"You know, I've said a lot of things about Jets fans in the past, and I’m sure at heart they're good people. Most of them are good people. The Giants fans are a different type of people. Just put it that way. There's a little more class on the Giants' side, and some Jets fans take the 'c-l' out of class."

On a side note, I know exactly what Jason means.  Living in Jersey about a half hour south of the Meadowlands, I know many fans of both the Jets and Giants.  And yes, Giants fans are completely different - in a good way.

There are a couple of more good Taylor quotes in the post.  And if you have Sirius radio, I suggest listening on Friday to Adam Schein's show to hear the full interview.

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Dolphins vs Patriots: Three Key Matchups

Back to the scene of the birthplace of the 'Wildcat.'

Back to the scene of the birthplace of the 'Wildcat.'

While we'll all admit it was great to knock off the Jets last week and sweep the season series, it's time to now shift our attention to the other divisional rival - the one that actually matters.  The Patriots have been the beast of the AFC East for far too long.  And even with the Dolphins improbable division title last season, things have shaped up in 2009 like they have shaped up for a while - with the Patriots currently sitting atop the AFC East.  On Sunday, the Dolphins will travel up to New England to go toe to toe with the Patriots looking to make a statement.

To get it done, these three matchups will be critical.

Dolphins running game vs Patriots front seven
It's become almost legendary now what the Dolphins did against the Patriots up in Foxborough last season in the first meeting between these two teams - unleashing the 'Wildcat' and running for 216 yards en route to a 25 point thrashing.  But in their second meeting down in Miami, the Dolphins were unable to get anything going on the ground, 'Wildcat' or not.  They ran for only 66 yards and averaged only 3.7 yards per carry as the Dolphins, who hung with the Patriots for two and a half quarters, just couldn't keep up with the Patriots and their high-scoring offense.

Obviously, the Dolphins can't let themselves get involved in another shoot-out like we saw down in Miami last year.  And while the Patriots are ranked 15th in rush defense - surrendering 109 yards per game, which doesn't seem that bad - those numbers are skewed due to the fact that most opponents are trying to keep up with New England's offense and abandon the run too early.  They only see roughly 24 rushing attempts per game by opponents.  But in the key statistic, yards allowed per rushing attempt, the Patriots are ranked 22nd - surrendering 4.5 yards per attempt.  That, my friends, means there's a lot of yardage to be had on the ground.

Of course, everybody is aware that Miami's strength on offense is the running game and the Patriots will obviously stack the box to limit the amount of success Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams can have.  That's why it'll be very important for the Dolphins to remain committed to the ground game even if it isn't working with a lot of success early on.  Last week, the Dolphins got away from the run too quickly because the Jets were selling out to stop it.  That can't happen on Sunday.

In particular, I hope to see a lot of 'Wildcat' on Sunday early and often.  And I'm not talking about the jet sweeps or attempted passes.  I want to see some of that smash mouth power running that the Dolphins did so well earlier this season.  I have faith in Miami's offensive line to come in with the right mindset and play physical enough for the Dolphins to be able to pound the ball up the middle.  Let's set the tone early by pounding the rock.

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Should the Dolphins consider bringing back Chris Chambers?

Could Chris Chambers return to South Beach?

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Could Chris Chambers return to South Beach?

Incase you haven't heard, the Chargers have released receiver Chris Chambers.  Chambers, as you all know, spent the first six and a half years in Miami as a Dolphin - even earning a Pro Bowl appearance in 2005.  But he was also a serious under-achiever as a Dolphin, with his performance never really matching the talent his possessed.  In San Diego, it has been much of the same.

But, of course, Chambers has already been linked to the Dolphins - both by fans and even by one of the most trusted NFL insiders in the business.  Dolphin fans seem to be very interested in bringing back the 31 year old receiver.  And ESPN's Adam Schefter even said during Monday Night Countdown that the Dolphins and Ravens could be potential landing spots for Chambers.  Of course, Cam Cameron, Baltimore's offensive coordinator, was also the head coach of the Dolphins when they traded Chambers away in 2007.

So let's talk about this for a moment.  First off, here's the current situation.  Chambers must pass through waivers first.  Teams have until 4 pm on Tuesday to put in a waiver claim on Chris.  If a team claims him, they must pay him the remaining portion of his 2009 salary, roughly $2.4 million.  If Chambers passes through waivers unclaimed, then any team can sign him at any time at a negotiated price tag.

We know that GM Jeff Ireland will strongly consider every "acorn" that shakes free and Chambers is definitely an acorn that needs some consideration.  The Dolphins are simply not very well situated at the receiver position and Chambers could be the veteran this team needs.  Then again, he might be exactly what the Dolphins do not need.

Chambers only has 9 receptions this season for 122 yards.  Since 2008, Chambers has 42 catches for 584 yards and 6 touchdowns.  But he's been targeted 95 times which means he's catching under 45% of the passes thrown his way.  We also all know that it's not uncommon for Chris to drop a pass or two...or ten.  According to STATS, Chambers has dropped 4 passes this season - or 13% of the balls thrown his way.  For a comparison, Ted Ginn has 5 dropped balls on 41 targets, resulting in a 12% drop rate.  If everyone is going to kill Ginn for his "inconsistency" then I think we need to be fair and recognize that Chambers has been even worse.

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