Yesterday in my "Weekend Roundup" post, I talked a little bit about the kicker situation.  But I wanted to really get more into that because I think it's a lot more interesting than some realize.

Last season, Jay Feely was about as reliable as they come when it came to field goals.  He ranked 3rd among all kickers in the NFL with at least 10 field goal attempts with a 91.3% FG percentage, including connecting on all 13 field goals that were within 39 yards.  Yes, reliability as a field goal kicker was a big time plus from Feely in 2007.

However, that only tells half the story.  The problem with Feely was with his kickoffs.  Despite coming off of a career high in kickoff length (64.6 yds) in 2006 as well as never having a kickoff length less than 62 yards (which he did in his rookie year), Feely struggled mightily in '07.  His kicks traveled an average of just 57.8 yards, which was good enough for 34th among all players who had at least 10 kickoffs.  To put this in perspective, an average of 58 yards on a kickoff means that the opposing team's return man averaged fielding the ball at his own 12 yard line.  Meanwhile, the top 20 kickers in the league in terms if kickoffs averaged at least 63 yards per kickoff, placing the opposing return man at his own 7 yard line.  That's a 5 yard difference in field position, which can not be underestimated.

Other key numbers for kickoffs are touchbacks and kicks that land out of bounds.  Feely had 8 touchbacks, placing him 17th in the NFL and his 12.1% touchback percentage ranked him 16th.  Meanwhile, Feely had 3 kicks land out of bounds, which was 3rd most in the NFL.  A 2.6:1 ratio between touchbacks and kicks out of bounds is not very good.

Enter the competition.

Dave Rayner was signed by the Dolphins back in March.  In 2007, he split time between Kansas City and San Diego.  2006 was his only year as a full-time kicker, performing FG and kickoff duties for the Packers.  His first year, 2005, was spent as the kickoff specialist for the Colts.

Rayner is nowhere near as reliable of a FG kicker as Feely is.  For his career, Rayner is 41 of 58 (70.7%), including a sub-par 27 of 33 (82%) from inside 40 yards.  But where Rayner is effective is on kickoffs.  His 2007 kickoff distance of 67.6 yards ranked him in a tie for 1st in the NFL among kickers with at least 10 kickoffs.  This average length translates to the opposition fielding the ball at their own 2 yard line.  Not too shabby.

But Rayner isn't Feely's only competition.  The Dolphins also signed undrafted free agent kicker Dan Carpenter out of Montana.  Carpenter, over his final 2 seasons at Montana, was 43 of 53 (81%) on field goal attempts, including 4 of 5 from beyond 50 yards with a long of 54 yards.  However, from inside 40, Carpenter was just 25 of 30 (83%). 

But what is impressing coaches about Carpenter is his strong kickoff leg.  As a senior last year, Carpenter kicked off 78 times for 5,006 yards.  That's an average of 64.2 yards per kickoff.  If you translate that to where the opposing return man averages fielding the ball (in the NFL, not college), it would be from his own 6 yard line.  Also, of those 78 kickoffs, Carpenter only kicked one out of bounds.

So what does all this mean?  I think it means we are likely in for a relatively intriguing battle.  I would doubt that this regime will keep 2 kickers and use one as a kickoff specialist while Feely handles FG duties.  That's too much of a waste of a roster spot.  So, instead, we are really going to see what this new regime values more.  Is it field goal consistency and reliability or is it distance on kickoffs? 

Also keep in mind that another possibility could be keeping Feely around as the FG kicker but letting second-year punter Brandon Fields handle the kickoff duties.  Fields has a strong leg and did get one opportunity to kickoff last season, knocking it to the 10 yard line (a 60 yard kick).  Perhaps if Fields can show in camp that he's capable of consistently kicking the ball inside the 10 yard line and keeping it in bounds, that would be enough for the Dolphins to cut the other 2 kickers loose and use Feely as the FG kicker and Fields as the kickoff specialist.

So any predictions on how this plays out?

I hope you all had a good weekend and a nice Mother's Day.  Not too much going on right now.  But that will change in about a week and a half when OTAs kick off in Davie.

Meanwhile, here's what you may have missed from this past weekend:

VETS ON THE BUBBLE
The Palm Beach Post's Tim Graham took a look at which veteran players might be cut prior to September.  His full blog post can be read here.  I just wanted to talk a little bit about the defensive names on this list because we haven't really touched on them yet like we did on the offensive side of the ball.  Also note that Graham defines "veteran" as a player that is entering at least their 3rd year in the league. 

One of the first names on this list is Travis Daniels.  And he'll likely be a big topic of discussion once camp rolls around.  He's a guy who showed a ton of promise in his rookie season, but has tailed off since then due to a lack of speed and some nagging injuries.  Graham says about Daniels and his situation:

With six safeties on the roster (seven, counting Jason Allen), Daniels will need to stand tall in camp.

And therein lies the problem for Travis.  What does this new regime view him as?  You'll remember about a month ago that it was said by Tony Sparano that they would actually take a look at Travis as a cornerback rather than a safety, at least at this point.  So that means Daniels won't be in competition with all the safeties (and there are quite a few), but rather will the corners that are in camp.  Will Allen is all but set as a starter.  So Daniels will battle guys like Michael Lehan, Andre Goodman, Nate Jones, Joey Thomas, Scorpio Babers, and Will Billingsley.  Not exactly a great group.  So Travis should have every opportunity to fight for a roster spot. 

If you ask me, I'd say that the 4 most likely to make the team are Allen, Lehan, Goodman, and Jones.  That leaves Daniels to battle with Babers, Billingsley, and Thomas.  With the experience advantage, I think Daniels has a good shot if he can stay healthy.

Another interesting player on Graham's list is kicker Jay Feely.  Feely had an exceptional season last year in terms of field goals, but struggled with his distance on kickoffs.  The Dolphins have brought in Dave Rayner (who is 41 for 57 in his career) and Dan Carpenter, a rookie out of Montana (read about him here).  For now, though, I think that Feely is simply to reliable of a field goal kicker for the Dolphins to just dump him.  But I'll talk some more about the kicker situation in a future post (hopefully this week).

DIERDORF'S TAKE ON PARCELLS VS TAYLOR
CBS Sports commentator Dan Dierdorf recently gave us his take on the Bill Parcells/Jason Taylor soap opera that the media has been (and continues to) play itself out this Spring.  Dierdorf, as a guest on the radio, had this to say:

Bill Parcells is the most blue-collar guy there is.  And there's nothing "Hollywood" about Bill Parcells.  And I'm sure the mere thought of Jason Taylor missing workouts, and because he's dancing, drives Bill Parcells up the wall.  But I still believe Jason Taylor is an impact football player and any football team is better off having there.

Not exactly any earth-shattering news there, but I think that it's further proof that once Taylor arrives in Miami and does begin acting like a part of the team, then Bill will be satisfied.  And Jason will prove many (including myself) wrong by (hopefully) showing up in "football mode" and having another great season.  Like Dan says, I think it's just the fact that Bill's "face of the franchise" isn't around and isn't taking part in his important offseason workout program, but rather is dancing, that is eating away at Parcells.  Once Taylor gets into Davie, we'll all be happy.

Of course, whether he remains a Dolphin for all of 2008 is an all together different topic for discussion.

Thoughts on any thing below...

It's Saturday, so let's get to a couple of videos.

Today I thought we'd watch a little of Ricky Williams back in his prime.  Both of these clips are from the week 13 game in Buffalo back in 2002.  Notice that great burst through the line and then the finishing speed to break away from everybody.  What a combination of power and speed this guy once had.

The first video is below.  The second is after the jump.

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Submitted for your approval.  On the left is our very own 2nd round pick, QB Chad Henne.  On the right is one of the stars of Family Guy, Glenn Quagmire.

Separated at birth or what?

All we need now is for Chad to walk around the practice facility in Davie shouting "giggity" left and right!!

Ok, in all seriousness, you do have to admit that there is some resemblance between the two, right?

As it stands right now, the Dolphins currently have 83 players on their roster.  The limit to enter training camp in July is 80.  I would expect the next round of cuts to come following the next mini-camp, which is a voluntary mini-camp scheduled for May 23 and lasting through the 25.

But who might be next to go?  And I'm not talking about the undrafted free agents here.  To my count, there are 15 undrafted free agents currently under contract by the Dolphins.  Those 15 I'm excluding from this talk because they are, after all, undrafted players.  So their expectations are far lower.

And here's another interesting stat to just ponder.  Of the 83 players currently under contract by the Dolphins, 45 of them were signed, drafted, or traded by this new regime during this off-season.  That means that 54% of the roster right now was brought in by Bill Parcells and company.  If you take away the 15 undrafted free agents, you're then talking about 30 of 68 (44%) players being "new regime" players.  And there's a very good chance that, when all is said and done, at least 50% of the players on the 53 man roster were guys brought in this off-season.  That's a ridiculously high roster turnover.

So now the question becomes which of the 38 "non-new regime" players might be the next to be dumped.  And that's what I wanted to quickly examine today.

Today we'll talk about the offensive "skill" position players.  Those that might not make it to September include:

RB Patrick Cobbs
FB Reagan Mauia
WR Greg Camarillo
TE David Martin
TE Justin Peelle
TE Aaron Halterman

For Cobbs, the math is simple.  Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are locks to be on the 53 man roster barring any setbacks from their recent injuries.  Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland also decided to draft two more running backs to add into the mix.  Jalen Parmele is most likely going to be the one pushing Cobbs the most as the team's 3rd halfback.  In fact, Ireland all but declared after the draft that Parmele has the inside track to the roster spot.  As long as he shows he can play special teams, he'll likely have every opportunity to win the job.

The other back taken, Lex Hilliard, reminds me of a short-yardage halfback/fullback combination type of player.  I think he'll push more for a roster spot as a fullback more so than the 3rd running back, meaning Reagan Mauia is on notice.  Remember, the team also signed Boomer Grigsby this off-season and he'll be on the 53 man roster for sure thanks to his special teams prowess.  Also don't forget Mauia was arrested a few weeks back for punching a man in a parking lot of a restaurant.  So yea, he should be worried.

The only receiver on this list is Camarillo.  He's one of just 3 hold-overs from a year ago.  And some might think Derek Hagan should be on this list.  But I just have a feeling that this regime isn't ready to give up on him.  He's got good size and runs good routes.  He just needs to hold on to the damn ball more often.  Despite the drops, though, he did have the highest success rate of all the receivers on the team last year that caught 10 or more passes.

Camarillo was a Cam Cam favorite but originally earned a spot last year as a special teamer.  Bad news for Greg: the new regime has brought in a ton of special teams players, not to mention numerous free agent wide receivers (Wilford, Perry, Kircus, Bess, Foster, etc...).  I like the kind of route runner Camarillo seems to be, though, and it seems like he has reliable hands.  He'll just need to play very well in camp to hold off the newcomers.

As for the tight ends, this is going to be one of the more competitive position battles in camp.  All 3 listed above are far from guaranteed a roster spot and, right now, I have no idea who is ahead here.  The signing of Sean Ryan and the trade for Anthony Fasano means that there's a good chance only one of the above make the final roster.  Fasano is all but guaranteed a roster spot and Ryan stands a good chance of making the team as the 3rd tight end.  So I would suspect that Martin and Peelle will battle it out to be Fasano's primary backup as a receiving tight end.  Martin is the better receiving tight end, though you wouldn't know it form watching last season's games.  He's faster and more athletic than Peelle, but Peelle is a better blocker and was more reliable in the passing game last year, especially in the red zone.

We'll look at more of the roster in the coming days.  But out of the guys listed above, who is the next to go?

Here's something interesting that a reader e-mailed to me, after which I further looked into it.

Earlier today, Yahoo's Jason Cole was on the Jorge Sedano Show on 790 The Ticket.  Cole and Sedano talked about things like "spygate" and the Cedric Benson stuff.  But at the very end of the interview, which can be heard right here, Cole tells Sedano that he was on the set of Dancing With The Stars earlier this week.  Sedano then asks Cole if there's any news on Jason Taylor, to which Cole replies:

"Not yet.  Maybe either tomorrow or Monday there'll be a story on it."

Could there actually be some new info on this JT saga?  Maybe.  Or it could be that Cole wants people waiting for his latest column on Yahoo! Sports and he's trying to just drum up some interest in it. 

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Cole has, if he indeed has anything at all.

Jason Taylor:  Football Can "Suck It"
Alright, so maybe JT didn't exactly say that.  But you have to imagine that's what Bill Parcells is thinking upon the announcement that Jason will be taking part in a charity golf event in Iowa on May 28.  Now, sure, it's for charity.  And that's a great thing and always has been one of the great things about Taylor.  He's always looking to take part in charity events or give back to the community.

But, at some point, doesn't Taylor actually have to show up in Davie and become an active part of this football team again?  As it stands now, Taylor is committed to Dancing With the Stars until he either wins or is eliminated.  Should Jason reach the finals of the competition (if you want to call it that), then he'll be in Los Angeles until May 20.  This golf commitment of his is on May 28.  In between, on May 21 to be exact, the next rounds of OTAs (organized team activities) begin in Davie.  So though it's likely Taylor makes it to the facility for those, he obviously doesn't plan on sticking around.

Now sure, Taylor is a great, great player.  And you can't expect any veteran player to be around all the time during the off-season.  But, damn, shouldn't the supposed leader of the team be around a little bit more than most vets?  And isn't his presence even more important now since this franchise is going through changes, with new coaches and many, many new players?  Taylor is the supposed "face of the franchise."  But you know, he sure isn't acting like he wants that title. 

Listen, I'm a huge fan of Taylor and respect him greatly.  But enough is god damn enough.  How are the young players on this team and the new faces on this team supposed to respect Taylor when he isn't even around?  Here's my final thought on Taylor:  If his mind, body, and soul isn't 100% into the game of football, then I don't want him around this team.  Hopefully he gets all this extra crap out of his system by July when training camp rolls around.  But right now, I'm just not convinced he still has the mindset to be an elite football player.

I hope I'm wrong.

TALKING LATE-ROUND RBs
There is a very good read in the Sun-Sentinel about the two backs that the Dolphins selected in the 6th round of the draft.

Former Toledo RB Jalen Parmele, though, is the one I'm personally more intrigued with.  And the Sun-Sentinel reports that Parmele looked especially sharp, showing a "good burst off the line."  About his running style and being teammates with Ricky and Ronnie, Parmele says:

"I tried to run like Ricky because he ran with power. I expect to learn from both of them and improve from them."

What impresses me more, though, about Parmele is his character and work ethic.  You'll remember back on day 2 of the draft that GM Jeff Ireland said that they felt Parmele would be the team's 3rd RB this year.  Jalen took that as motivation to work hard:

"That put pressure on me to prove I could be out there getting things done and to learn the offense as best and as fast as I can"

I love it when players, especially young players, put pressure on themselves.  Most 6th round picks might not feel much pressure because their draft status just doesn't place any undo pressure on them.  But Parmele knows that he has a roster spot within reach and I suspect he will earn that spot and be the 3rd back behind Ronnie and Ricky. 

As for Lex Hilliard, he's got a good story too, bouncing back from a torn ACL his junior year.  I suspect that his niche, though, would be as a fullback more so than as a halfback.  That means he'll have to battle with Reagan Mauia and Boomer Grigsby for a roster spot.

Thoughts below...

And be sure cast your vote for who you think will be the starting QB in week one, located in the right sidebar.

Right now, many of us are very excited for the future of this franchise.  But today I wanted to simply take some time to talk about my favorite (and many of yours, as well) Miami Dolphin:  Ronnie Brown.

I don't think enough can be said about the kind of season Ronnie was on his way towards having before that terrible week 7 injury that ended his season (yea, thanks again Cleo Lemon).  He led the league in total yards from scrimmage and was well on his way towards a 1,300+ yard rushing season and a 2,000+ yard total yards from scrimmage season.  He also had his first trip to Hawaii in sight as well.  So it was insanely frustrating watching Ronnie suffer that injury, especially doing something that he shouldn't ever have to do (making a tackle). 

So, today, let's sit back and just take some time to talk about Ronnie and just how great of a season he was having last year. 

Sure, we can talk about his 4 consecutive 100 yard rushing games or his back-to-back 200 total yard games.  But I wanted to go a different route and look and some of his key splits from the '07 season.

For example, one of the most important things you look at when examining a running back is how he does as the game wears on.  And Ronnie Brown, to his credit, really doesn't miss a beat as his carries increase:

Carries 1-5:  35-172 (3.8 ypc)
Carries 6-10:  35-249 (7.1)
Carries 11-15:  27-93 (3.4)
Carries 16-20:  16-107 (6.7)

Solid numbers across the board, which is what you want to see out of a feature back.

Another important stat for a running back is how they do in 3rd (and 4th) and short.  Again, to his credit, Brown is a great short-yardage back:

3rd and 2 or less:  4-19 (4 1st downs)
4th and 2 or less:  4-36 (4 1st downs)

That's 8 carries and 8 first downs.  Quite impressive.

And one final stat I want to throw your way before giving way to some videos, I always like to look at what running backs do when their team is backed up in their own territory.  Ronnie, again to his credit, is a great asset to the Dolphins when they are inside their own 20, as proven last year:

Inside own 20:  12-136 (11.3 ypc, 4 1st downs)

And yes, that includes Ronnie's 60 yard run against the Raiders in week 4 last year.  Now if you take away that burst, Brown still averaged 6.9 ypc in his 11 other carries inside their own 20.  Now that's getting the job done, folks.

But now we enter 2008 with Ronnie recovering from a torn ACL.  Though we've been hearing that he's been making great progress, I'm still a bit leery.  There's no need to rush him back onto the field.  I hope the Dolphins are very cautious in Ronnie's return.  But when he does return, the league better watch out.  Because now he's running behind a much improved offensive line.

So join me today in raising a glass to Ronnie Brown.  May his recovery go smoothly and may he run right through NFL defenses for the next 5 to 10 years in Miami as he did in 2007!

A few videos are below the fold...

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With all this talk about the rookies recently, I think that there's one new acquisition that might actually be getting overlooked in many fans' eyes.  The signing of former Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford is really going to have a nice positive effect on this Miami offense.  At 6'4, 233, he may not be flashy.  But he's big and physical and will provide our quarterback (whoever it happens to be) with a reliable target on key plays.

Reliability is something that the Dolphins lacked a lot of last season.  Consider that there was no wide receiver on the Dolphins roster last season who caught more than 50% of the passes that were thrown their way (excluding Greg Camarillo, who was only targeted 10 times, catching 8 passes).  The receiver with the highest catch percentage last year in Miami?  Derek Hagan, with a success rate of 50%.

Last season with Jacksonville, Ernest Wilford had a success rate of 61%, catching 45 passes on 74 total targets.  That's rather impressive when you consider some of the success rates of the game's top receivers:  Randy Moss - 62%, Braylon Edwards - 52%, Terrell Owens - 57%, Chad Johnson - 58%, Steve Smith - 58%, Larry Fitzgerald - 60%, and Torry Holt - 63%; just to name a few.

But it's not all that fair to compare Wilford's success rate with the above because the players above were also targeted much more often.  But if you take a look at the success rates of players who have around the same amount of targets, you'll still see Wilford's figure stands superior: 

Ernest Wilford:  61% (45/74)
Donte Stallworth:  61% (46/75)
Brandon Stokely:  56% (40/71)
Drew Carter:  51% (38/74)
Drew Bennett:  45% (33/73)

As you can see, Wilford's numbers remain impressive when you talk about other wide receivers in his class.

But this is only part of the impact (and improvement) of the acquisition of Wilford.  The man is also a first-down machine, something the Dolphins sorely lacked last season.  And for comparison's sake, we will look at Wilford's numbers as compared to the player he's replacing here in Miami, Marty Booker.

And before we get into anything, I did want to point out one key stat.  Last season, following the trade of Chris Chambers to San Diego, most of us figured that this meant Marty Booker would really have to step up and play well.  After all, he was now starting opposite of a rookie wide receiver.  Instead, Booker went on to struggle.  Rather than being the reliable set of hands that Miami's quarterback could turn to, Booker "officially" dropped 7 passes (though, as many Dolphin fans know, that's being generous).  Wilford, for comparison, dropped just 2 last season.

Moving on to my "moving the chains" point, one of the most important stats you can look at for a wide receiver is their 3rd down production.  And this is where Ernest Wilford is really going to make a big impact in Miami.  Below are the stats for both Wilford and Booker on 3rd downs in 2007:

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The Dolphins today have announced the signings of CB Scorpio Babers and LB Keith Saunders.  Both were undrafted free agents who were given the opportunity to workout at the team's recently concluded rookie mini-camp.

Also, the Dolphins have waived 4 players, two of which were with the team last year.  Those two are LB Abraham Wright and DE Derrick Robinson.  Wright, you'll remember, was a training camp standout last year under Cam Cameron and Dom Capers.  Many thought he would make an ideal pass-rushing outside linebacker in Miami's 3-4.  Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland clearly disagree.

The two other players Miami has let go are WR Marcel Reece and CB Aaron Lane, both of which were undrafted free agents who the Dolphins signed last week after the draft.