Dolphins vs Saints Prediction Time
Following Miami's impressive win over the Jets two weeks ago, it seems like more and more people are at least giving the Dolphins more respect. But does that translate into more "experts" picking the Dolphins to upset the Saints? Below are some picks:
| Chris Mortensen - NO | Adam Schefter - NO | Mark Schlereth - Mia |
| Tom Jackson - Mia | Chris Carter - NO | Pete Prisco - NO |
| Harmon Forecast - NO | Peter King - NO | PFT - Mia |
| Charles Robinson - NO | Jason Cole - NO | Michael Silver - NO |
Alright - clearly, the Dolphins, despite their new found respect from the mainstream media, are still not liked by many to pull off the upset. But you know what? Nobody picked the 1-6 Dolphins to beat the 7-0 Bears in Chicago a few years back. How did that turn out?
With that said, I'm still not "eating the cheese." The Dolphins are better than their 2-3 record implies. But they aren't good enough to keep up with the Saints. If things don't come together in the secondary quickly, the Dolphins won't win this game.
We saw that even owning the ball for 3/4ths of the game isn't good enough if your defense just gives up touchdown after touchdown. But if the Dolphins can just keep this game close into the fourth quarter, they could steal this game away from New Orleans. But they must play mistake free. A little help from mother nature wouldn't hurt, either. Wind and rain, anyone?
My Week 7 Locks
Falcons +3.5 over Cowboys - This Atlanta team is for real, folks. They can beat you multiple ways and they will indeed walk into Big D and win this game out-right. But getting 3.5 points makes this pick even safer.
Colts -12.5 over Rams - The Colts will dominate against one of the league's two worst teams. And they even welcome back Bob Sanders to help on defense. This one could get ugly.
Packers -6.5 over Browns - Assuming the Packers can keep Aaron Rodgers upright (which has been an issue at times this year), Green Bay should waltz into Cleveland and win by double digits against a team that has serious issues scoring any points at all.
Chargers - 4.5 over Chiefs - The Chargers, like the Dolphins, aren't your typical 2-3 team. They'll find a way to win this game by a touchdown or so.
Last Week: 2-2
Season: 7-9
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Dolphins vs Saints: Miami's Keys to Victory
Sunday's big game between the Dolphins and Saints is now just days away. All Dolphin fans know that this game certainly will not be easy. But it's definitely not an "unwinnable" game. The Dolphins certainly can win this game. But they'll have to play a near-perfect game. And these three keys below will be very important:
Keep it close
This one almost goes without saying. Even with the stronger armed Chad Henne under center, the Dolphins are not a team that can come back from big early deficits. They do not have the firepower and that's just not their way. Meanwhile, the Saints have the kind of explosive offense that allows them to score quickly and score often. The Dolphins obviously can't allow this to happen.
In three of their five games, the Saints have had halftime leads of 18, 14, and 17. And the Saints have scored on their first possession in all five of their games - putting up four touchdowns and a field goal. They've also never trailed in a game all season. And excluding when the game was 0-0, the Saints have only been tied for 19:22 of game time - meaning the Saints, after scoring on their first possession, have only been in a tie for 19 minutes and 22 seconds combined in all five games. That's insane.
But that also presents an opportunity. The Dolphins have been in tight games in the second half in all but one of their games. So this team is familiar, and comfortable, playing in tight, pressure-packed situations. The Saints might not be. Who is to say how New Orleans will react as the game progresses into the late 3rd and early 4th quarter of a tight, one-score game?
Linebacker Akin Ayodele, whose brother is a starting defensive tackle on the Saints, agrees:
"We've really faced adversity early in this season. I think it has put us in a better situation when certain things come about that we're prepared. Mentally we're prepared. We know how to deal with it."
"That's what we're shooting for: the fact that maybe nobody has pushed them. We're not the team that's going to just sit back and let them come on our home turf and push us around."
Frankly, I'm actually borderline over-confident that the Dolphins can pull off the win if they can keep this game close in the fourth quarter. And I say this only because I don't know how the Saints will react if/when the Dolphins refuse to go away. Like Akin said, nobody has pushed them yet in 2009. The question, if the Dolphins can indeed push them, is if the Saints have the right mentality to push back - especially when their on the road with the stadium rocking.
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Five Good Questions: New Orleans Saints
With Sunday's big game between the Dolphins and Saints nearing, it's time to get to know our opponent better. To do that, let's welcome in "Saintsational" from Canal Street Chronicles. You can also head over to his blog sometime today to check out what he asked me about the Dolphins.
I could go on and on about Drew Brees - as I'm sure you could. But I've been more impressed with your offensive line. They've only allowed five sacks this season after allowing just 13 last year. But it seems like that unit gets overlooked despite a year and a half of outstanding play. Why is this?
It's easy to get overlooked as an offensive line when your splendid play means Drew Brees has plenty of time to rack up ridiculous stats and garner lots of attention. But you're absolutely right, those guys have been very impressive as a unit. Interestingly enough, the offensive linemen were all applauded by coaches and fans alike this week after they shut down the touted pass rush of the Giants number one defense this past Sunday. Even better, we're finding out that backup left tackle Jermon Bushrod may be just as good, if not better, than the Saints starting Pro-Bowl tackle Jammal Brown.
Last season, the Saints were just 28th in the NFL in rushing. But they've seemed more committed to a balanced offense in 2009, leading to an average of 10 more rushing attempts per game this year ranking 4th in the league in rushing. What do you attribute this sudden rushing attack to and how will New Orleans continue to use their three talented backs?
You've done your homework, young grasshopper. The revival of the Saints ground attack post-Deuce McAllister can mainly be attributed to a renewed effort by head coach Sean Payton to dedicate his team to running the football. A balanced offensive attack was something he seemed to pick up on only late last season. Prior to that, it seemed he felt only Drew Brees could win games. That was also the time the Saints picked up Mike Bell, who had a great training camp this season and filled in remarkably for Pierre Thomas during the first two games of this year. It also doesn't hurt that the Saints have had a lead all season and don't need to pass the ball a ton in an effort to come from behind.
As far as what the future holds, I think what we saw this Sunday against the Giants is what we can expect for the rest of the season now that both backs are healthy: Pierre Thomas as the main rusher with Mike Bell coming in for short-yardage and goaline work.
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Dolphins defense in the red zone
This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel. Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations? Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone. And with the Dolphins game kicking off at 4:15 on Sunday, the RedZone channel is a great way to stay on top of all of the early games.
With the Dolphins coming off of their bye week, there isn't any red zone offense to discuss here this week. So I thought we could take a trip back through the first five weeks of the season and talk quickly about how the Dolphins are performing on defense inside the red zone.
So when I started breaking down the red zone performance by Miami's defense game by game, I noticed that they haven't played half bad. They were one of the better red zone defenses last year and some of that has carried over. The Dolphins are allowing touchdowns on 50% of their opponent's red zone trips - not a particularly bad number at all. In fact, over their last three games, the Dolphins are allowing touchdowns on just 41% of opponent's red zone trips. Again - that's rather impressive.
But then I looked a little deeper and noticed a disturbing statistic. The Dolphins are only giving up 301 yards per game to opposing offenses - which is 10th in the NFL. But that figure is rather high considering the time of possession differential the Dolphins have been able to achieve during their first five games. In fact, their 5.6 yards allowed per play is 24th in the league. Even more disturbing, the Dolphins have let opposing offenses reach the red zone on 18 of their opponent's 50 total possessions. That means that more than one-third of the oppositions total drives penetrate inside of Miami's 20 yard line.
Does that worry anybody else?
Upon doing more research, I found that the Dolphins rank 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per drive - surrendering 31.12 yards per possession. That might not seem like a terrible amount, but it is - especially considering how the Dolphins are not exactly very good on special teams, meaning offenses generally have good starting field position against Miami.
The bottom line here is that while it's great that the Dolphins can keep opponents out of the endzone on half of their trips inside the 20, this defense has to do a better job of getting off the field and preventing teams from penetrating that far down the field. Eventually, the numbers are going to catch up with them and the Dolphins will start allowing more and more touchdowns.
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Dolphins vs Saints: Three Key Matchups
After a bye week that felt like forever, the Dolphins will get back to their regular practice schedule beginning on Wednesday as preparations for Sunday's big game against the Saints rev up. And with that, our preparations for Sunday's big game will rev up as well.
I already talked yesterday about how some might feel that tthis game on Sunday is this team's "defining game" of the first half of the season. Even if you disagree, there's no way around just how big of a game this is. With that, let's focus on three key matchups. And allow to to point out that the Dolphins did indeed win two of the three matchups I highlighted against the Jets two weeks ago - resulting, of course, in a classic Monday Night Football victory. Hey, I'm just sayin'...
Dolphins offensive line vs Saints defensive line
The key to all of Miami's offensive success this year has been their offensive line's ability to dominate the line of scrimmage. They have shown their ability to just physically dominate the trenches and provide that initial surge Miami's talented running backs need to get going.
However, they also haven't exactly faced top rushing defenses. In fact, statistically speaking, the best rushing defense Miami has faced this year happens to be the Colts - who rank 14th in the league, but themselves allow 4.1 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Saints are actually 5th in the league against the run, allowing 83.4 yards per game and just 3.8 yards per carry.
More importantly, the Saints front four is probably bigger and more physical themselves than any Miami has faced this year. Their starters weigh in at an average of 298 pounds and they are a talented, underrated bunch. A lot of Dolphin fans seem to think the Dolphins will be able to just run over every team they face this year with their physical ground attack - especially in this upcoming game. But I'm not entirely sold. Sunday's game is a big test for this unit.
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Is Sunday's game against New Orleans the "defining game" of the first half?
It might be crazy to think that Sunday's game against the Saints is the Dolphins' "defining game" of the first half of their season. It might be a bit of a reach. But then again, it just might be completely accurate.
Think about this for a moment. The Saints are universally considered to now be one of the top three teams in the NFL. They will come to Miami with an undefeated 5-0 record and with the top ranked total offense and top ranked scoring offense. Defensively, the Saints have a top ten total defense and scoring defense. And last week, the Saints simply demolished another top five team when they made the New York Giants look like they didn't even belong on the same field - scoring 48 points and running up 493 total yards of offense against what was ranked as the number one overall defense in the league coming into week six.
Want another nice tidbit about the Saints? The Saints have never trailed in a game so far this year. Not once. Not even for a second.
With all that said, just think about what a win by the Dolphins would do. If you knock off the team that has been the most dominant through six weeks, you make a statement. Suddenly, the Dolphins wouldn't just be another .500 football team. They'd be much more. Says guard Justin Smiley:
"You beat a team like this, it does everything for you. It kind of validates where you are as a football team."
"It either says, ‘we have a long way to go,’ or you win the game and you realize you’re headed in the right direction."
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More pot stirring: Dwayne Bowe rumors continue to fly, but don't expect anything
We've heard rumblings for about a week now that the Chiefs are shopping wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and that the Dolphins might be interested. But we really have no evidence that the Dolphins even reached out to Kansas City.
But today, WQAM's Steve Goldstein tweeted that the Dolphins have "explored the possibility" of trading for Bowe. What that means we have no idea. But Goldstein also tweeted that he's heard KC wants a 2nd round pick, another mid-round pick, and even possibly something else in exchange for Bowe.
Meanwhile, ProFootballTalk is reporting that Chief head coach Todd Haley "tore into Bowe early in Sunday's win over the Redskins, urging Bowe to pick up his game and threatening to trade Bowe if he didn't." The apparent threat seemed to work out nicely, with Bowe posting over 100 yards receiving en route to KC's first win of the season.
It's an interesting way to motivate a player - and you have to wonder how much Haley's motivational tactics were drawn from actual fact.
However, it still seems like a long shot that the Dolphins would make this kind of move - giving up the picks they would have to give up - to get a receiver like Bowe. WQAM's Orlando Alzugaray agrees. He said earlier today on his show that he doubts the Dolphins will make any move prior to tomorrow's trade deadline.
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Your chance to have a voice in HOF voting
Even though it has no "official" bearing on the NFL's Hall of Fame voting, the NFL has teamed up with Van Heusen and JC Penny to put together a Hall of Fame fan vote. And it marks the first time in which the NFL has at least recognized fan voting in regards to the Pro Football Hall of Fame - even if it has no real impact on the actual Hall of Fame voting.
Regardless, it's still a pretty cool idea and gives us all a chance to cast our "Hall of Fame votes" and let our voices be heard. Currently, the top five in the voting are Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, Cris Carter, Shannon Sharpe, and Ray Guy. But there are two Dolphins who, if you want to complete complete homers, you can vote for. And no - Cris Carter's five games as a Dolphin don't count.
Reggie Roby is currently in 86th place in the voting and could use our help. Sure, Ray Guy is probably more deserving. But Roby is one of the all-time greatest punters and deserves our vote.
Irving Fryar is another, currently in 62nd place. He may have only been a Dolphin for three seasons - but he did make the Pro Bowl in two of those three. More importantly, he was a key player in that classic 1994 season opener between the Dolphins and Patriots in which Dan Marino made his triumphant return from injury to throw for five touchdowns in a shoot-out win. In that game, Fryar was Marino's favorite target - catching 5 passes for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns. That's a good enough reason for me to vote for him.
To cast your vote, just click here. And though your vote doesn't "officially" count, the results of the vote will be announced on NFL Network just hours before the official results are announced.
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Some Monday morning thoughts
This is usually the post where I get to to the happy (or unhappy) recap on the Dolphins' game. But the damn bye week has taken that pleasure away from me. Even still, there are some thoughts that are relevant to the Dolphins that I wanted to share from Sunday's action.
But before I get into Sunday's action, let's start this thing out with a ridiculous Dolphins statistic. Did you know that Chad Henne's combined quarterback rating for his first two career starts is the highest QB rating ever for a quarterback making his first two career starts? That's right - no player has ever began his career as a starting quarterback better than Henne has. Henne has completed 71% of his passes (34/48) for 356 yards and 3 touchdowns, which results in an NFL record 112.9 passer rating. Of course, the most important stat of all for Henne is his team's 2-0 record.
When the Saints come marching in
Entering the week, the New York Giants had the top ranked overall defense and the top ranked defense against the pass. All Drew Brees and the Saints did was throw for 369 yards and four touchdowns (averaging 12.3 yards per pass attempt) en route to a 48 point output against that Giants defense. In fact, the Saints scored touchdowns on five of their first six possessions on Sunday. And on the one that wasn't a touchdown, the Saints got down to NY's 1 yard line but couldn't punch it in on 3rd or 4th down - turning the ball over on downs.
This Saints offense is going to be a huge problem to the Dolphins defense next Sunday when the Saints come down to Miami. The Saints can protect the quarterback. And they have just a ton of weapons. There probably isn't one team in this league that can throw the amount of skill players at you like New Orleans can. In fact, the Saints had seven different players score a touchdown on Sunday against the Giants, marking only the fourth time since 1970 that a team has had seven different players score a rushing or receiving TD in a single game.
They are just loaded with talent. They are easily four deep at receiver - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson - and then have Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey who also make plays in the passing game. And that's not even mentioning their running game - led by Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, with some Bush mixed in. This is the NFL's most dangerous offense coming into Miami. And they pose matchup problems all over the field for the Dolphins.
The Saints used multiple formations against the Giants to keep them off balance. They also did an excellent job of attacking the middle of the field with crossing patterns while also attacking the seams with their slot receivers and tight end. My initial gameplan for next Sunday is simple - keep NO's offense off the field and then get pressure on Brees as much as humanly possible - no matter the cost. But needless to say, I'm obviously not too optimistic. Of course, on any given Sunday...
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Week 6 Open Thread
WEEK 6
Just because week six is the Dolphins' bye week doesn't mean there isn't some football worth watching. There are a number of good games to watch today. Some of the ones I'll be paying close attention to include Vikings/Ravens, Saints/Giants, and Bengals/Texans. And yes, that's right - I said the Bengals/Texans game. I'm interested in seeing how Cincy's defense fares against the AFC's 3rd highest scoring offense. Are the Bengals for real this year?
I'll probably be in and week of this thread throughout the day. Feel free to use this thread to discuss anyting from today's action.
Enjoy for football Sunday, everybody!
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