FanPost

Ryan Tannehill: How much better was he in 2013?

I have an ongoing discussion (debate, argument, whichever term you want to use) with friends of mine who are big basketball fans. The discussion centers around PPG (points per game) and it goes something like this: Let's say a player shoots 45% from the field and 75% from the line and averages 10 PPG during the year. The next year that same player averages 20 PPG. Just based on PPG, a person would think that is a dramatic improvement. But say in that year the player averages 20 PPG, the player still shoots 45% from the field and 75% from the line but takes twice as many shots. Did the player improve at the game or was the player the same with more opportunities?

Now, you are probably thinking, what the Hell does this have to do with Tannehill? It was this discussion with my friends about basketball that I thought of when I looked at Tannehill's stats in 2013 compared to his stats in 2012. Here are his stats side by side:

RYAN TANNEHILL STATS
SEASON GAMES PLAYED COMP ATT COMP % TOTAL YARDS AVE PER ATT TD INT FUM QBR RATING
ACTUAL 2012 16 282 484 58.3% 3,294 6.81 12 13 5 50.4 76.1
ACTUAL 2013 16 355 588 60.4% 3,913 6.65 24 17 6 45.8 81.7

The first thing I noticed was that he doubled his TD's from '12 to '13. That's really good. But the next thing I noticed is that he had 104 more pass attempts. I also noticed that his Ave / Attempt went down in '13.

That got me wondering what his 2012 stats would look like if he had the same amount of attempts. So that's what I did. I kept everything the same, except his attempts. The number of attempts multiplied by the COMP % yielded the projected number of completions. You take the projected number of completions multiplied by the Ave / Attempt, to get the projected Total Yards. And so on and this is what I came up with:

RYAN TANNEHILL 2012 PROJECTION w/ 2013 ATTEMPTS
SEASON GAMES PLAYED COMP ATT COMP % TOTAL YARDS AVE PER ATT TD INT FUM QBR RATING
ACTUAL 2012 16 282 484 58.3% 3,294 6.81 12 13 5 50.4 76.1
PROJECTED 2012 16 343 588 58.3% 4,002 6.81 14.6 15.8 6.1 50.4 76.1

Now if you take the projected 2012 stats and put them side by side with the actual 2013 stats:

RYAN TANNEHILL 2012 PROJECTION VS. 2013 ACTUAL
SEASON GAMES PLAYED COMP ATT COMP % TOTAL YARDS AVE PER ATT TD INT FUM QBR RATING
PROJECTED 2012 16 343 588 58.3% 4,002 6.81 14.6 15.8 6.1 50.4 76.1
ACTUAL 2013 16 355 588 60.4% 3,913 6.65 24 17 6 45.8 81.7

A couple of things stand out in the chart above:

1. With the increase in talent at the pass catching positions from '12 to '13, I would never have thought that the projected '12 stats would have more Total Yards and a better Ave / Attempt.

2. Tannehill had a higher completion % in '13, but based on the projected '12 stats it only resulted in 12 more completions on the year. I would have thought it should be higher than that.

3. While Tannehill had more TD's in '13, he also had more TO's.

Now, I know what you are thinking. CT is just being negative again. That's not my intent. I think Tannehill did improve in '13 compared to ‘12. The number of TD's alone means he got better (even though I think that is somewhat the result of having much better weapons in '13 compared to '12). But I also think that a lot of his "stats", like throwing for almost 4,000 yards, was more the result of opportunity and attempts than it was that he got significantly better.

Personally, I was hoping for more from Tannehill in '13. But that was last year. This is '14, a new season. So I want 2 things from Tannehill this year.

1. I want a higher Completion %, in the 64% range. Tannehill was 22nd in the league in Completion % in '13. 64% would put him solidly in the Top 10 of the league.

2. I want a higher Ave / Attempt. Tannehill ranked 27th in the league in Ave / Attempt in '13. He needs to be in the 7.5 range or higher next year. That will probably get him in the Top 10 of that category in the league.

If Tannehill can improve on those two things, Total Yards and TD's will take care of themselves. Miami needs to push the ball down the field in '14. Philadelphia (Foles) in '13 led the league in Ave / Attempt at 9.12. Imagine what Tannehill's numbers would look like if he averaged that many yards / attempt (quick math, he would have thrown for 5,363 yards).

So, what do you think? Is the basketball player better or not? :)

PS: I looked this stuff up and wrote this article a couple of days after the NYJ loss. I held off posting it because of the Sherman and Ireland firings.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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