FanPost

What would the Dolphins give to move up in the Draft?

There's been a lot of talk about the Miami Dolphins trading up and down in this draft. Trading up to get that amazing prospect at <insert position here> or trading down to take advantage of the "great depth" in this year's draft.

Jeff Ireland has even acknowledged the speculation and stated that he had the ammunition to move up to the number one pick, should he want to (which he apparently does not, which is presumably why he actually answered that question). That got me thinking - what would it actually take to move up higher in the top 12, to get our hands on a Dee Milliner or a Lane Johnson?

There is a standard draft value chart that is easily googled. Supposedly, a number of teams use it (or something similar). The top 11 picks and the Dolphins' picks are as follows:

Round Team Pick Value
1st Chiefs 1 3,000
1st Jaguars 2 2,600
1st Raiders 3 2,200
1st Eagles 4 1,800
1st Lions 5 1,700
1st Browns 6 1,600
1st Cardinals 7 1,500
1st Bills 8 1,400
1st Jets 9 1,350
1st Titans 10 1,300
1st Chargers 11 1,250
1st Dolphins 12 1,200
2nd Dolphins 42 480
2nd Dolphins 54 360
3rd Dolphins 77 205
3rd Dolphins 82 180
4th Dolphins 111 72
5th Dolphins 146 33
6th* Dolphins 166 n/a
7th Dolphins 217 5
7th Dolphins 224 2
7th* Dolphins 250 n/a
* Compensatory pick cannot be traded

Granted, the chart has numerous flaws - teams all value picks and players differently depending on the situation. Its only a starting point at best. Still - it gives something to work on rather than optimistically hoping that we can give up a 5th rounder to move up to the number 8 spot.

Using this chart, together with the picks the Dolphins have allows us to estimate what the Dolphins would have to give up for each of the higher positions in the draft. Obviously, there are a large number of permutations here, so I have simplified things with the following assumptions:

  • Lets assume that the 1st round pick has to be part of the trade. In theory, the whole of the rest of the draft would be enough to get up to number 10. But Jeff Ireland is no Mike Ditka and there's no Ricky Williams in this draft!
  • Ignoring future year draft picks - if you think the chart for this year has its issues, don't even start thinking about next year.
  • Limiting the numbers of picks where possible. Not many trades involve more than 3 picks.
Pick Value Extra Needed Pick Combination
1 3,000 1,800 needs 2014 picks or players
2 2,600 1,400 needs 2014 picks or players
3 2,200 1,000 1st, 2nd (1), 2nd (2), 3rd (2)
4 1,800 600 1st, 2nd (1), 3rd
5 1,700 500 1st, 2nd (1), 5th
6 1,600 400 1st, 2nd (2), 4th
7 1,500 300 1st, 2nd (2)
8 1,400 200 1st, 3rd (1)
9 1,350 150 1st, 3rd (2)
10 1,300 100 1st, 4th, 5th
11 1,250 50 1st, 4th

Yep - according to the chart even a Mike Ditka special might not be enough to move up to the number one & two spots. And to move up to the 3rd spot would take far too many valuable picks that should go towards the core of the team (notwithstanding recent problems in those rounds).

However, moving up to the 6th through 10th spots looks entirely feasible to me. Giving up one of the extra picks in rounds 2 and 3 might well be a good exchange for someone the team thinks is a top talent who is unlikely to fall to the 12 pick.

Similar scenarios can be constructed to move back up into the 1st round if someone falls. As a guide, offering both 2nd round picks gets you up to number 20 or thereabouts. A 2nd and a 3rd gets you into the high twenties.

Based on this, I predict the Dolphins will only draft 3 or 4 players from their top 5 picks. And using all 11 is surely unlikely - can anyone really see 11 rookies making the team?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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