There's been a lot of talk about the Miami Dolphins trading up and down in this draft. Trading up to get that amazing prospect at <insert position here> or trading down to take advantage of the "great depth" in this year's draft.
Jeff Ireland has even acknowledged the speculation and stated that he had the ammunition to move up to the number one pick, should he want to (which he apparently does not, which is presumably why he actually answered that question). That got me thinking - what would it actually take to move up higher in the top 12, to get our hands on a Dee Milliner or a Lane Johnson?
There is a standard draft value chart that is easily googled. Supposedly, a number of teams use it (or something similar). The top 11 picks and the Dolphins' picks are as follows:
|* Compensatory pick cannot be traded|
Granted, the chart has numerous flaws - teams all value picks and players differently depending on the situation. Its only a starting point at best. Still - it gives something to work on rather than optimistically hoping that we can give up a 5th rounder to move up to the number 8 spot.
Using this chart, together with the picks the Dolphins have allows us to estimate what the Dolphins would have to give up for each of the higher positions in the draft. Obviously, there are a large number of permutations here, so I have simplified things with the following assumptions:
- Lets assume that the 1st round pick has to be part of the trade. In theory, the whole of the rest of the draft would be enough to get up to number 10. But Jeff Ireland is no Mike Ditka and there's no Ricky Williams in this draft!
- Ignoring future year draft picks - if you think the chart for this year has its issues, don't even start thinking about next year.
- Limiting the numbers of picks where possible. Not many trades involve more than 3 picks.
|Pick||Value||Extra Needed||Pick Combination|
|1||3,000||1,800||needs 2014 picks or players|
|2||2,600||1,400||needs 2014 picks or players|
|3||2,200||1,000||1st, 2nd (1), 2nd (2), 3rd (2)|
|4||1,800||600||1st, 2nd (1), 3rd|
|5||1,700||500||1st, 2nd (1), 5th|
|6||1,600||400||1st, 2nd (2), 4th|
|7||1,500||300||1st, 2nd (2)|
|8||1,400||200||1st, 3rd (1)|
|9||1,350||150||1st, 3rd (2)|
|10||1,300||100||1st, 4th, 5th|
Yep - according to the chart even a Mike Ditka special might not be enough to move up to the number one & two spots. And to move up to the 3rd spot would take far too many valuable picks that should go towards the core of the team (notwithstanding recent problems in those rounds).
However, moving up to the 6th through 10th spots looks entirely feasible to me. Giving up one of the extra picks in rounds 2 and 3 might well be a good exchange for someone the team thinks is a top talent who is unlikely to fall to the 12 pick.
Similar scenarios can be constructed to move back up into the 1st round if someone falls. As a guide, offering both 2nd round picks gets you up to number 20 or thereabouts. A 2nd and a 3rd gets you into the high twenties.
Based on this, I predict the Dolphins will only draft 3 or 4 players from their top 5 picks. And using all 11 is surely unlikely - can anyone really see 11 rookies making the team?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.