FanPost

A Look at the QB class and beyond

G'day my fellow Phinsiders.

Last year about this time I did a post looking at the upcoming QB draft class and their collegiate numbers. Some people liked it, most people didn't, but I have to do something to fill the hours and hours of complete boredom that society calls "your job" so I thought I would do it again <insert groan here>. For those that are into numbers and stats, you may like it, for those who don't, please don't be too harsh!

The point of this isn't because we are looking for a new QB, but mainly because there is a better than average chance that we will be facing one of these rookie QB's twice a year with one wearing the baby poo green of the Jests and the other wearing the...um...bugger it, I can't think of a funny one for the Bills. As Sun Tzu said "If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle." That guy seemed to know his shit, so why not.

Name

School

Comp

Att

Pct

Yards

Y/A

AY/A

TD

INT

Td:Int

Geno Smith

West Virginia

988

1465

67.4

11662

8.0

8.7

98

21

4.7

Matt Barkley

USC

1001

1562

64.1

12327

7.9

8.0

116

48

2.4

EJ Manuel

FSU

600

897

66.9

7741

8.6

8.3

47

28

1.7

Tyler Wilson

Arkansas

593

948

62.6

7765

8.2

8.1

52

26

2.0

Ryan Nassib

Syracuse

791

1312

60.3

9190

7.0

7.1

70

28

2.5

Mike Glennon

NCS

646

1069

60.4

7411

6.9

6.8

63

31

2.0

Tyler Bray

Tennessee

540

922

58.6

7444

8.1

8.2

69

28

2.5

Landry Jones

Oklahoma

1388

2183

63.6

16646

7.6

7.7

123

52

2.4

Matt Scott

Arizona

415

676

61.4

4921

7.3

7.0

33

19

1.7

Zac Dysert

Miami (OH)

1066

1672

63.8

12013

7.2

6.7

73

51

1.4

Sean Renfree

Duke

898

1389

64.7

9465

6.8

6.3

30

15

2.0

Collin Klein

Kansas State

370

604

61.3

4724

7.8

7.7

30

15

2.0

Jordan Rodgers

Vanderbilt

299

535

55.9

4063

7.6

7.2

24

15

1.6

It shouldn't come as a surprise, but Geno Smith would appear on paper to be the pick of the bunch...by a fairly significant margin. That isn't to say there won't be a future star in the mix, but if I were a GM (and considering my work ethic, I find it surprising that I'm not), I would have no doubt about pulling the trigger on Smith.

If we have a look at the 5 rook QB's from last year, we can get an idea on how these guys compare.

Name

School

Comp

Att

Pct

Yards

Y/A

AY/A

TD

INT

Td:Int

Andrew Luck

Stanford

713

1064

67.0

9430

8.9

9.5

82

22

3.7

Pro

339

627

54.1

4374

7.0

6.4

23

18

1.3

Robert Griffin III

Baylor

800

1192

67.1

10366

8.7

9.4

78

17

4.6

Pro

258

393

65.6

3200

8.1

8.6

20

5

4.0

Ryan Tannehill

Texas A&M

484

774

62.5

5450

7.0

6.9

42

21

2.0

Pro

282

484

58.3

3294

6.8

6.1

12

13

0.9

Russell Wilson

Wisconsin

907

1489

60.9

11720

7.9

8.4

109

30

3.6

Pro

252

393

64.1

3118

7.9

8.1

26

10

2.6

BrandonWeeden

OKS

766

1102

69.5

9260

8.4

8.7

75

27

2.8

Pro

297

517

57.4

3385

6.5

5.6

14

17

0.8

There were a few other QB's from last year that also had some impressive numbers - Kellen Moore, 69.8%, 142tds vs 28ints at a 5.1 td to int ratio. Case Keenum, 69.4%, 155tds vs 46ints at a 3.4 td to int ratio and Austin Davis, 61.1%, 83tds vs 27ints at a 3.1 td to int ratio.

In my post last year, it found that apart from a few instances (Brady, Kapernick) most QB's will decrease from their College numbers, or, reamin fairly consistant (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, RG3) as you can see here.

Name

School

Comp

Att

Pct

Yards

Y/A

AY/A

TD

INT

Td:Int

Aaron Rodgers

California

424

665

63.8

5469

8.2

8.6

43

13

3.3

Pro Career

1752

2665

65.7

21661

8.1

8.6

171

46

3.7

Drew Brees

Purdue

1003

1639

61.2

11517

7.0

6.9

88

45

1.9

Pro Career

4035

6149

65.6

45919

7.5

7.3

324

165

2.0

Tom Brady

Michigan

443

711

62.3

5351

7.5

7.3

35

19

1.8

Pro Career

3798

5958

63.7

44806

7.5

7.7

334

123

2.7

Peyton Manning

Tennessee

863

1381

62.5

11201

8.1

8.3

89

33

2.7

Pro Career

5082

7793

65.2

59487

7.6

7.5

436

209

2.1

Eli Manning

Mississippi

829

1363

60.8

10119

7.4

7.5

81

35

2.3

Pro Career

2612

4457

58.6

31527

7.1

6.6

211

144

1.5

Philip Rivers

N.C State

1087

1711

63.5

13484

7.9

8.1

95

34

2.8

Pro Career

2268

3564

63.6

27891

7.8

7.7

189

93

2.0

Ben Roethlis

Miami (OH)

854

1304

65.5

10829

8.3

8.4

84

34

2.5

Pro Career

2374

3762

63.1

29884

7.9

7.7

191

108

1.8

Joe Flacco

Delaware

596

942

63.3

7057

7.5

7.6

41

15

2.7

Pro Career

1507

2489

60.5

17633

7.1

6.9

102

56

1.8

Colin Kapernick

Nevada

740

1271

58.2

10098

7.9

8.4

82

24

3.4

Pro Career

139

223

62.3

1849

8.3

8.6

10

3

3.3

Mark Sanchez

USC

313

487

64.3

3965

8.1

8.3

41

16

2.6

Pro Career

1028

1867

55.1

12092

6.5

5.5

68

69

0.9

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Harvard

265

454

58.4

3756

8.3

8.2

29

14

2.1

Pro Career

1338

2249

59.5

14336

6.4

5.6

92

81

1.1

Some things that stick out is that after Smith, there are very few QB's that have any "wow" numbers when comparing back to last years draft. And when looking at the table above, there are some similar numbers to current NFL starters, but the million dollar question is will they become another Rodgers or another Sanchez? I think the only big concern for us Phin Fans would be that if Smith is taken by the Bills or, heaven forbid, the Jests.

To a lesser degree, I would be moderately concerned with either of them picking up Landry Jones, who imo, is the 2nd best QB (from a numbers point of view) in the draft, i.e. he can absorb a stat decrease in the key categories more so than the other rooks (excluding Smith).

Barkley could be the most tricky to evaluate. The history of USC QB's would seem to say he will see a massive drop in numbers...but will he?

**Disclaimer, this next part may infuriate some members, if you don't want to hear or read any concerns about Ryan Tannehill, then it might be an idea to stop reading now...if there is anyone still reading...**

When doing this fanpost, I couldn't help but look back at the only really set of numbers that me, as a Dolphins fan, really cares about...Mr Tannehill.

Last year I voiced some concerns on the numbers he put up in College and how if he went the way of most QB's and had a decrease in numbers we would be looking at a 50 odd % completion rate with a high number of Ints to Tds...which has unfortunately been the case, albeit in only his first year. I know there are arguments to be made on line play, receiver quality etc, but this post is about the pure and simple numbers. Coming out of College, Tanne had almost identical numbers to Drew Brees. In the Pros, his numbers look more like Sanchez, but with better a 3% better completion rate.

Name

School

Comp

Att

Pct

Yards

Y/A

AY/A

TD

INT

Td:Int

Ryan Tannehill

Texas A&M

484

774

62.5

5450

7.0

6.9

42

21

2.0

Drew Brees

Purdue

1003

1639

61.2

11517

7.0

6.9

88

45

1.9

Name

Team

Comp

Att

Pct

Yards

Y/A

AY/A

TD

INT

Td:Int

Ryan Tannehill

Miami

282

484

58.3

3294

6.8

6.1

12

13

0.9

Mark Sanchez

NYJ

1028

1867

55.1

12092

6.5

5.5

68

69

0.9

Now I'm am definitely not saying that Tanne will be Sanchez 2.0, especially considering that 1 year of data isn't enough to be an accurate sample size, but there is enough, I believe to be concerned.

Having said that, I am hoping that with the new play makers and speed that we have acquired, Tanne can turn these numbers around and start heading back towards a Brees type of stat line, but it will all start with completions. Imo, completions are the foundation for the tower of awesomeness that we hope the Dolphins are building and for that, he will need time in a clean pocket to make that happen. While I am still hoping for a stud pass rusher or top CB with our first pick, I won't be surprised to see multiple O-Line picks this year.

To summarise:

1) I think we all need to pray to whatever deity we believe in that Tanne turns the corner and brings his numbers up, namely completions and TD's.

2) The Bills or Jests don't draft Geno Smith.

3) The Bills or Jests draft someone like Mike Glennon or Tyler Bray.

4) I think the Phins need to take a(or multiple) pass blocking O-Linemen at some point. Are there some to be found late? Or will JI have to take one early?

5) I should really get back to work.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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