Top Tier of Players in the Draft (Sure Things)
Luke Joeckel (OT)
Eric Fisher (OT)
Dee Milliner (CB)
Chance Warmack (G)
Sharif Floyd (DT)
Sheldon Richardson (DT)
Star Lotuleilei (DT)
Bjoern Werner (DE)
Secondary Tier (High Potential, but all have risks):
Barkevious Mingo (OLB)
Dion Jordan (DE)
Ezekial Ansah (DE)
Geno Smith (QB)
Jarvis Jones (OLB)
Lane Johnson (OT)
Marcus Trufant (CB)
Kenny Vaccaro (S)
Damontre Moore (DE)
Cordarelle Patterson (WR)
Jonathan Cooper (G)
Keenan Allen (WR)
Players in the Mold of Philbin's and Ireland's Ideal Characteristics for their first round pick:
Dee Milliner - #1 CB with all necessary attributes
Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel (OT) - Top 10 Left Tackles on Day 1.
Sheldon Richardson (DT) - A faster, younger, and even higher intensity version of Starks.
Sharif Floyd (DT) - Not as much of a pass rush threat as Richardson, but in some ways exceeds him (Strength, Versatility to 5 Technique DE)
Keenan Allen (WR)
Jonathan Cooper (G)
Who does not?
- Chance Warmack (G) - Too Heavy for their zone blocking scheme
- Mingo and Jones are great players, but the gain of upgrading OLB over Misi is small, especially considering the risks of Jones's medical issue and Mingo's required position change.
-Damontre Moore - He works hard, but Ireland's first requirements for a DE is setting the edge for the running game, and Moore can't, and had nearly the worst weightlifting numbers at the combine for his position. Reportedly, many scouts don't even have Moore in the first round.
-Ezekial Ansah - Ireland has played it safe in the 1st round every single year. Even Tannehill wouldn't have been picked due to risk except for his position and Sherman being onboard to quell the risk. As much potential as Ansah has I don't think Ireland can defy is risk avoidance nature enough.
-Cordarelle Patterson (WR) - See Ezekial Ansah. One year wonder with Julio Jones physical skills but whose interviews were horrible. He comes across as arrogant and unintelligent, two major red flags for Ireland's criteria.
My Top 15 picks of Round 1 mock draft:
1. Kansas City - Eric Fisher (OT) - Fisher has impressed much more than Joeckel in his interviews. Joeckel seems to lack a mean streak for the position.
2. Jacksonville - Geno Smith (QB) - Sure, they could take a pass rusher, but isn't a shot at a franchise QB worth more?
3. Oakland - Sharif Floyd (DT) - Brings attitude and toughness to the DL.
4. Philadelphia - Dee Milliner (CB) - Asomugha and DRC are likely both gone. Need somebody as a #1 in the secondary.
5. Detroit - Bjoern Werner (DE) - With Milliner gone Detroit decides to replace Avril with a steady blue collar 10 sack per year DE who is the surest thing to an everyday player.
6. Cleveland - Barkevious Mingo (OLB) - The only thing their front seven needs is a greater pass rush and athleticism.
7. Arizona - Luke Joeckel (OT) - Fixes multiple year issues at OL.
8. Buffalo - Cordarelle Patterson (WR) - Steve Johnson needs help, and Buffalo can target Nassib in the 2nd.
9. NY Jets - Dion Jordan (DE) - Rex Ryan needs to replace all that pressure from Pace and Scott.
10. Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmack (G) - Strengthening the OL will give Chris Johnson no more excuses, and the better Johnson plays the better shot Jake Locker has to succeed.
11. San Diego Chargers - Keenan Allen (WR) - Without a need at DT or OLB (Richardson and Jones still remain) they need to target a top weapon for the offense, and can target a Tackle (Watson or Armstead) in the 2nd.
12. Miami Dolphins - Sheldon Richardson (DT) - With no top WRs left and Star Lotuleilei's heart problems, Richardson becomes a no brainer. With the depth at CB in the 2nd round (Logan Ryan, Jamar Taylor, Jordan Poyer, Blidi Wilson), does it really make sense to target Trufant in the first and then a pass rusher in the second? Who would be left except for high risk players like Montgomery (Lazy), Hunt (Raw), or Carradine (Injury recovery and one year wonder)?
13. Tampa Bay - Marcus Trufant (CB) - Great fit with their secondary needs.
Removing the players who don't fit, as well as the players who likely won't be available results in the following most likely draft options for the Dolphins:
- Sheldon Richardson (DT) - Likely Gone
- Dion Jordan (DE) - Likely Gone
- Lane Johnson (OT)
- Marcus Trufant (CB)
- Keenan Allen (WR)
- Jonathan Cooper (G)
For this evaluation, I think one of the first two players on this list will be the pick due to value. They are of higher quality, and Ireland is aware of that. If they are gone, Miami will have a difficult choice between Allen (WR), Johnson (OT), and Trufant (CB). My gut instinct is that unless a top player falls, Ireland will go with Keenan Allen. Why? He is the only pro-ready WR who fits all of Miami's criteria and is an appropriate value. He has greater physical capabilities than Anquan Boldin when he came out, and is a very similar player to Boldin and Jennings.