It's been 2 weeks now since my last look at Tannehill's 2013 season, and he now has 4 games in the books. September is now over, and he has led the team to a 3-1 record. At this time last year we were sitting at a lovely 1-3 record following two heart breaking loses in OT, including one to the loathsome Jets. How bad does that monday night game in New Orleans look now? Miami is 2nd in the division, 1 game behind NE, and 5th in the conference (with a 2-0 record vs the AFC). They still have 7 home games remaining, so at the very least, they'd finish 10-6 if they win all their home games. That aside, this is a look at Tannehill and where he is after the first quarter of the season.
At the time of my last post, Tannehill was projected to finish with 4,728 yards, 16 TDs, and 8 ints. He was also on pace to be sacked 72 times, and throw 64 passes of 20+ yards or more. Those numbers have naturally changed since then. After 4 games, he's now projected to finish with 4,304 yards, 20 TDs, and 20 ints. He's still on pace to finish with 72 sacks. He's also projected now to throw 52 passes of 20+ yards, and 8 over 40. Both would still be more than last season (40 and 3 respectfully). His completion percentage, avg and rating are still higher than last season to this point. So overall, his TDs improved slightly while his yards dropped. However, his interceptions (and fumbles) have increased drastically, and his sacks aren't letting up. Now let's go deeper.
As of my last post, Tannehill's worst stretch was during his pass attempts 11-20. That is still the case, and has even gotten worse. His completion percentage during those attempts is down to 57%, and his rating dropped from 53.8 to 39.5. He's thrown 3 interceptions during this span, compared to 0 TDs. His first 10 pass attempts, and attempts 21-30 remain his strong point with a 110.5 and 102.8 rating respectfully. He has 3 TDs during attempts 21-30, meaning later in the game, compared to just 1 int while his completion percentage remains at 70% during his first 10 passes.
While his redzone numbers have dropped slightly, he was a perfect rating through 2 games, it's still his strongest area on the field. He has a 136.3 rating in the redzone, with 4 TDs to 0 ints and a completion percentage of 88%.He also has yet to be sacked in the redzone despite the high number he's taken. Continuing the trend, inside his own 20, he has a QB rating of 99.4, 76% completion percentage and no turnovers, though he has been sacked 3 times. He's being safe with the ball in the two most important parts of the field. However, it's between the 20's where his numbers drop, particularly between his 20 and midfield. 3 of his interceptions have occurred here, as well as 12 of his sacks for a 65.3 QB rating. He's also thrown 7 passes over 20+ yards from here. Overall, he's only taken 3 sacks in opponent territory so he isn't losing yards when the team is in range to score, either a TD or field goal, but does have 2 interceptions in their territory outside of the redzone. He only has 1 TD from outside the redzone, meaning the team continues to have to get close to score which is the most difficult spot on the field.
His first and second half numbers are pretty similar in terms of percentage, yards, big plays and rating. However, he's thrown 4 TDs in the 2nd half of the game, compared to only 1 before halftime. 3 of his interceptions and 13 of his sacks have happened in the 2nd half as well. His 2 minute stats took a big hit thanks to a poor outing in NO where he had an interception before half, and in the final two minutes of the game. That's a big reason for his rating of 60.7 in the final 2 minutes of a half (he's only thrown 2 interceptions during this span, and both were on monday night).
The 2nd qtr remains Tannehill's worst with a 68.3 rating. He has yet to throw a 2nd qtr touchdown, compared to 2 interceptions. His completion percentage is at its lowest in the 3rd qtr, down to a 56%, but over 70% during both the 1st and 4th qtr of the game. His rating remains high in the first qtr, at 116.8, but has dropped to around 85 for both the 3rd and 4th. Also of note, 10 of his sacks have occurred in the 3rd qtr. Now, on to his 3rd down numbers.
For comparison sake, last year Tannehill converted 33.53% of his 3rd downs which wasn't far from the bottom. Through 4 games, that number is way up.
3rd Down Percentage:
Cle: 8/15, or 53%.
Ind: 4/11, or 36%.
Atl: 7/12, or 58%.
NO: 3/8, or 38%.
Season: 22/46, or 48%.
Through 4 games, his conversion percentage is up by about 15. One thing to note, however, is the alternating pattern here. He's had 2 games over 50%, and two games in the 30 range. If this continues, he should convert over 50% of his 3rd downs vs Baltimore (would certainly help bounce back with a win).
Cle: 0 TD vs 0 int
Ind: 0 TD vs 0 int
Atl: 1 TD vs 1 int
NO: 1 TD vs 1 int
Total: Even- 2 TDs, 2 ints.
*Has 4 fumbles with 3 lost.
Cle: 3rd and 8.
Indy: 3rd and 6.
Atl: 3rd and 8.
NO: 3rd and 9.
Average: 3rd and 8.
Average Yards Per Completion:
Cle: 9 completions for 82 yards, or 9.1 avg.
Ind: 4 completions for 54 yards, 13.5 avg.
Atl: 9 completions for 103 yards, or 11.4 avg.
NO: 4 completions for 87 yards, or 21.8 avg. (thanks to Thigpen).
Total: 26 completions for 326 yards, or 12.5 avg.
Total: 8 sacks on third down.
Something else I decided to check out was the amount of yards Tannehill has gained on 3rd down, compared to the amount of yards he has lost, or failed to gain.The way this works, if it's 3rd and 8 and Tannehill gains 10. He gets all 10 points. If he gains 6, he gets the 6, but then loses 2 for the failed yards needed. If he throws an incompletion, he loses the 8 needed. A sack, or negative play, he loses not only the 8, but also however many yards were lost on top of that. A turnover, he would lose the 8 plus the number of yards in the return by the defense. That should give you an idea of how I came up with these numbers.
Season: +51, or +12.75 per game.
We've seen improvement from Tannehill, there's no doubt about it. His 3rd down numbers are up, and his redzone play has been wonderful. However, he still has too many turnovers compared to his TDs and he's getting sacked way too much. With 3/4 of the season remaining to be played, and hopefully some games beyond that, it will be interesting to see how Tannehill shapes up as the season progresses.