The bye week has come and gone, and it's hard not to wish we had another week off. Miami responded to their bye week with a 23-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills. That puts them at 3-3 on the season, the same record the team held at this point last season. The difference, last year the team was on a 2 game win streak, which would stretch to 3, as opposed to the 3 game losing streak the team is suffering through at the moment. Tannehill is currently on pace to throw for 4,205 yards, 24 TDs and 19 interceptions. His sack pace dropped to 69 on the season. He's also on pace to fumble 19 times and lose 11. If he played a healthy 10 year career at this pace, Tannehill would finish with 35,425 yards, 153 TDs and 145 interceptions, with another 58 fumbles lost.
Through 6 games last season, he had 1,454 yards (123 less), 4 TDs (5 less) and 6 interceptions (1 less). He was sacked 12 times vs 26 this season. He had fumbled 3 times with one lost, vs 7 times with 4 lost this year. His completion percentage was at 60.2% (60.7% this year). He had only one game over 300 yards (the 431 vs Arizona) with 2 games below 200 yards. He's had two 300+ yard games this year, and 1 below 200.
Tannehill's best stretch is during pass attempts 21-30. He has a 65% completion percentage with 6 TDs compared to 1 int for a 116.2 QB rating. His rating was highest during these attempts last season as well, at 88.2, with 6 TDs and 3 interceptions. His worst stretch has been attempts 11-20, with 1 TD vs 3 ints and a QB rating of 58.1. His worst stretch last season was attempts 31+, with a 46 QB rating and a 43% completion rate. His rating and completion percentage is higher so far this season during these attempts, but still bad. Overall, much like last season, Tannehill has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns during attempts 1-20 (2 vs 5 this season, 5 vs 7 last season).
One area where we have seen much improvement is in the redzone. Last year, Tannehill had 8 TDs vs 1 interception in the redzone. He has those exact same numbers through just 6 games this year. His completion percentage has gone up from 44% in the redzone last year to 68% this year. He's also shown slight improvement in the final two minutes of the half. His QB rating in the final 2 mins was a pathetic 38.3, that's up to 79.7 this year. He had just 1 TD to 4 interceptions last year, and has 3 TD vs 2 int this year in the final 2 minutes. His completion percentage has improved slightly from 47% to 51%, but still not very high for such an important part of the game.
Tannehill has thrown more TDs than interceptions in the second half last year and this (8 TDs to 5 int last year, 5 TDs vs 3 int this year). However his completion percentage continues to be better in the first half, over 60%.
The majority of his sacks taken continue to occur in the second half, 19 compared to just 7 in the first half. 10 of those have occurred in the 3rd qtr, with the other 9 in the fourth (7 of them in the 4th during a 7 point game). Last year, Tannehill was sacked 11 times in the 4th, and 8 times in each of the other 3 qtrs. He only took 3 sacks in the 4th when the margin was only 7 points. Also of note, last season the 4th qtr was the only qtr where he had a QB rating over 80 (70-75 for the other 3, and 45.8 in OT). This season his rating is down to a 75 in the 4th, though it is an 83 when the game is by 7 compared to 73 last year. His second and third quarters are his strongest to this point in the 2013 season, with a 93.8 and 89.7 rating respectfully. He has 6 TDs vs 3 interceptions in these two qtrs, compared to 3 TDs and 4 int in the other 2.
Also of note, he has only thrown 1 interception this season while the team was ahead, and one while tied. The other 5 have all been when the team is down. Similar to the sacks. 7 of them have been when the team is up, while 15 of them have been while the team is trailing.
Another trend that has continued is his TD/Int ratio at home vs on the road. He has 6 TDs vs 3 int at home this year (2 this past week), and had 8 TDs vs 5 int last season at home. However, on the road he's thrown 7 TDs vs 12 interceptions in a Dolphin uniform. His sacks have been evenly split this year (13 at home and away), while last year he was sacked almost twice as many times away as he was at home. His completion percentage has actually gone down at home to 57%, while it's increased on the road to 64.5%.
The other important note that raises concern is his fumbling problem. He has played 21 full games for Miami, and has fumbled in 12 of them. He only had one game last season where he fumbled more than once, something he has done twice so far this season. He's also lost as many fumbles this year as he had all of last year (he fumbled 9 times last year, 7 so far in just 6 games this year). He's only had 2 games this season where he hasn't fumbled, and every game where he has, one of them have been recovered by the defense.
One other area that I really would like to see change, is Tannehill running the ball. The last couple of weeks to close out last season, Tannehill threw 6 TDs vs only 2 interceptions in what was probably his best stretch of the season. He ran the ball much more during this stretch compared to the beginning of the season. He ran for at least 20 yards in each of those games, outside of the season finale in NE, with a high of 52 vs Jacksonville and 44 against the Bills. He averaged from 6-8 yards a carry during many of those games. This year he's been running as little as he did to begin last season, with the Saints game being the only one where he finished with over 10 yards (4 carries for 48 yards). I don't want him to go run crazy, but he's too athletic not to use it to his advantage like so many of the other young QBs out there.
Now on to his 3rd down numbers which I've been keeping track of all season.
Last year: 33.5%
This year: 26/72 or 36.1%
Cleveland: 8/15 or 53% (2 sacks)
Indy: 4/11 or 36% (3 sacks)(1 run)
Atlanta: 7/12 or 58% (2 sacks)(1 int)(1TD)
Saints: 3/8 or 38% (1 sack)(1 int)(1 TD)
Balt: 3/15 or 20% (2 sacks)(1 TD)
Buf: 1/11 or 9% (1 sack)(2 ints, 1 TD) (1 TD)
Tannehill started the year much improved over last season, with two games over 50%. However, he's struggled on third down over the last three losses including a terrible showing vs Buffalo. He has thrown a TD in four straight weeks on a 3rd down play, but he's also thrown 4 interceptions including the pick 6, and has taken 11 of his 26 sacks on third down.
As for the little yardage counter I started. On this, every yard gained is counted in his favor. If it's 3rd and 6, and he picks up 20, he gets all 20 yards. If he only gets 5, he gets credit for the 5 yards, but loses 1 for the needed amount to convert. If he loses yards, he not only loses the 6 needed to convert, but the added yards lost on top. In the case of an interception, I've counted the yards need to convert plus the yards of the return against him. He had faired pretty well up until the Buffalo game where the team just could not convert a third down outside the one Gibson TD. To give an idea for one of the top QBs, I did one for Peyton to see how he did (he scored a +65 for that game). I need to do all the games just to get an idea.
Total: -58, or -9.67 per game.