It's All About The PLAN Now
Let me start this off by saying there is a PLAN in place. You heard me right. There is!! Yeah!! After spending a week looking over Cap numbers. Using 4 different Web-Sites that detail contracts and Cap Space for our team. I came to the one conclusion. Hey, there is A PLAN. After reading Jeff Ireland's press interview yesterday he also confirmed what I saw through the Numbers. Ireland basically stated that it was No Fluke that we have Extra Draft Picks and Extra Cap Space this year. That sounds like he just said he has had a Plan in place since last year. No he didn't. Yes he did. I'm trying to not get my hopes up to much, but, this is looking good and sounding good. He also said Fans will be excited this Off-Season. Then I came back to earth a little. Is this a Tim Tebow (AKA getting Tim Tebow) type excitement or is this a Emma Stone (AKA getting Avril or Wallace) kind of excitement?
After writing Part 1 Building for speed. I realized that most people weren't sure what we actually had. Basically what kind of damage our Cap Space could do in Free Agency (FA). For 2-3 years I would always keep track of Cap Numbers in my spare time. Call it OCD. Generally I was within $1-$2 million of the the actual Cap. Roughly 9 months ago I decided to put the pencil down. The Brandon Marshall trade told me it might not be a fun Off-Season and a long year. So I would comment here and there on Cap posts. Having a rough idea of what the numbers were. Basically reading some of the things that were written in the local FL papers and MartinH04. An to be honest I didn't look at the Actual Numbers before Part 1 for the most part. Other than the occasional figure here or there. I just ran with the Ballpark number of $40-$60 Million Cap space. So as My Dad used to say. "Sometimes it's better to be Lucky rather than Good."So yes the numbers work and with some timing Part 1 would work from a Cap stand point.
Over the last week I picked up the pencil again and I've broken the roster down a bit. The roster has core players that are going no where. (AKA. Pouncey, Tannehill, and so on) We have 2-3 players that are going to be cut or could be cut easily for Cap Room and ease of replacement. (DC$, Patterson, and Soliai) We have 1 player that needs to be extended to limit his Cap Hit. (Dansby) We have 3 main players that need new contracts because they are due to hit FA in 2014. (Bess, Jones, and Incog) 2 of those 3 may not be in the teams future (Bess and Incog). An I know some of the local Beat writes have eluded to these possible cuts. So I don't want to steal their thunder.
So with 47 player signed to contracts in 2013. I see a lot of room to dump Cap Still. Most of our players under contract are what I call Roster Fodder(RF). RF can be dumped with no effect to our Cap (Dead Money). RFs are generally filler for the 80 man roster. They can also be bubble players when cutting down to your final 53. They are close to league min. pay guys. We currently have 11 Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) and 8 Restricted Free Agents (RFA). They are not under contract and are not accounted for in the 47. During the OFF-SEASON teams only have to account for the TOP 51 players under contract. Those 51 are what counts toward the CAP in the Off-Seasons. Part 1 of my post identified who I thought were our primary UFAs . I see 4-6 RFAs that will probably be tendered. The key RFA being Devlin. Devlin fits the WCO. An I know Kevin and a few others would agree. I feel solid with him as a backup. I also don't want to draft a QB this year. I also don't want an outside FA to consume Cap. Maybe bring in a UDFA QB.
CAP AS OF NOW------47 players under Contract
$79.1 Million Approximately (App)------No Dead Money taken into account.
I think a lot of questions to my Part 1 post had to do with how contracts effect the Cap. So I would like to try and break down the basic premise of a contract and how it effects Cap space. I'm not an Attorney. So for the most part this what I've seen or researched/deduced over the years. I will say again I have been pretty close on most of this stuff. So take it for what it is. LOL I would like to give an overview of what a contract for Karlos Dansby would look like. This would be signed this year. This is what I would offer him today or possibly after the draft.
4 years @ $24 Million. $6 Million Sign Bonus (SB), $12 Million Guaranteed.
2013--- $3 Million Base---Cap Hit---$ 7.7 Million-----$1.5M New SB----$3.2M Old SB---Cap Savings--$1.75M
2014--- $3 Million Base---Cap Hit---$7.7 Million-----$1.5M New SB----$3.2M Old SB---Cap Savings--$4.75M
2015---$3 Million Base---Cap Hit---$7.5 Million-----$1.5M New SB----$3M Roster Bonus---Dead Money(DM)--$3M
2016---$3 Million Base---Cap Hit---$7.5 Million-----$1.5M New SB----$3M Roster Bonus---Dead Money--$1.5M
Dansby's deal is set up to cover the remaining 2 years on his contract. He is guaranteed to be on the Roster this year 2013 and next year 2014. He is guaranteed $12 Mil which is covered in Base(2013 & 2014) and SB. He would receive $9 this year 2013. That is $3 Mil more than what he would receive otherwise in 2013.There is a pay cut in the second year though. He is due $9 Mil in base pay in 2014. So there is a trade off. 2015 & 2016 have roster bonuses instead of more base. This allows the team to cut him and save money by a certain date in those years. By placing the Roster bonus in 2015 and 2016 it also forces the team to make call on cutting him before FA starts in those League Years. This is also incentive for him to sign a new deal.
His old contract it would be difficult to cut him in 2013. Due to the fact that his DM would be $6.4 Million. Unless we can find an upgrade for $2.5 Mil or less he should stay. 2014 is a different story though. If he stays under his current deal. We could cut him in 2014 and leave him hanging late summer without a team. Depending on when you cut him it might be tough for him to find work. 2014 if cut would be a $3.2 Million DM yet his total hit to the team if on roster would be roughly a $12 Mil. hit to the team's Cap under is current deal. This is of course a rough overview of how you set the contract and apply it to the cap.This also fits in to how I want to attack the draft.
By the way this is similar to what the guy over at nyjetscap.com suggest in his review of our current Cap. An no I didn't steal the idea. LOL. He does a good job of getting numbers for contracts. After reading his review of our Cap situation I can say he views it very similar to how I view these things. Dansby's SB is different in the example above because I found a higher number. An I generally side with the larger figure.
It's the execution of the Plan
So we have a Plan. Now is the time to execute the Plan. In all honesty I'm going to go out on a limb and say we are going to see a trade the first day of League Year 2013. I'll get to the that in a second. Having a plan is half the battle. We have set the priorities this off-season. Taking Part 1 into account the first step is dealing with Jake Long. An again yesterday Jeff Ireland surprised me and made the point of referencing Jake. We'll need an answer on Jake to set the rest of Part 1 in motion in regards to UFAs. All the numbers for players and contracts would work even with Jake on the Tag. It would be a lot nicer to have him signed or traded before the Draft though. My numbers start to get close without Long's deal settled.
Trade-----IMO and as a Precursr to my next post the Speed (AKA) The Draft
Again the trade makes sense for both teams. It's a swap in Cap. That benefits both teams. It also eliminates a huge need for us and them. I wasn't even going to get into the possible trades of Jake or Paul when it came to my Mock Draft for Speed. An I have no inside Info on this. It is just a gut feeling we are trading for a player. It may be one of our picks for a player. I just wanted to make it a swap for players for my Mock though. An it fits me trading him in Part 1.
Thanks Again for reading.
The Speed Part 3 will be posted in a day or so. Sorry I just wanted to explain a little more about how I came up with some of the Numbers and why. An I was kind of stoked by what Ireland had to say. It just kind of fit with what I was looking at. I Hope he didn't just smoke and mirror me though. LOL