FanPost

Ozphins' totally lame rip-off.


Hi all, this is my first attempt at a fanpost and although it is only intended to be a bit of fun, a fair amount of thought has gone into it.

A little bit of background first. This idea came about after a drunken night at the casino went horribly wrong due to watching Moneyball and thinking that I could beat the casino using Math and Statistics - in hindsight, the booze may have played a part as well.

I ended up in a taxi line standing next to this American bloke who turned out to be a Bills fan. After some good natured ribbing in which sadly, I copped more shit about "being a league laughing stock" than a) a Fin fan should have to endure and b) a Bills' fan should be saying to another Football fan, conversation turned to the upcoming draft. The typical Luck vs RGIII discussion lead off, then onto Tannehill, and finally, his view that Weeden would be the next "Eli Manning". What he meant I didn't quite know and before I could get an answer he was being propositioned by a drunk chick in front of him. Our conversation was now over.

In the cold light of the next afternoon when I had finally stopped asking every deity I know of to "put me out of my misery" I started thinking about this strange conversation in the cab line and if there was any merit to comparing the stats of the current QB class to the College stats of current players and seeing if there was any relationship between the two? Unfortunately for the Phinsider readers, the next day was a work day, so I had nothing but time to put this thought to the test.

After pulling the college and pro stats from a decent sample size of Top, middle and bottom quality QB's, the surprising thing is just how similar the stats are. Even with the huge step up in class from the collegiate level to the pros, things like completion percentage, ave yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt for the majority of QB's are insanely similar.

To try and get an idea of decision making, i.e. how many bad throws a QB made, I used a very simple (and completely flawed for this purpose) formula of Ints/Incompletions to which showed up again, very similar numbers from College to the Pros.

While there will always be some anomalies with stats and again pointing out that this is only a bit of fun and not the be all and end all of QB evaluation, below is a chart of 17 current QBs and 12 QB prospects from this years draft. Looking at both what the NFL QB's did in college and the NFL, then comparing it to what this draft class has done over their college careers, can we estimate if they will fall into the upper end of NFL QB's? The middle of the road? Or the lower end?

Name School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Int % of Inc. TD to Int Ratio
Aaron Rodgers California 424 665 63.8 5469 8.2 8.6 43 13 150.3 5.4% 3.31
Pro Career 1381 2113 65.4 17366 8.2 8.7 132 38 104.1 5.2% 3.47
Drew Brees Purdue 1003 1639 61.2 11517 7.0 6.9 88 45 132.4 7.1% 1.96
Pro Career 3613 5479 65.9 40742 7.4 7.3 281 146 94.0 7.8% 1.92
Tom Brady Michigan 443 711 62.3 5351 7.5 7.3 35 19 136.4 7.1% 1.84
Pro Career 3397 5321 63.8 39979 7.5 7.7 300 115 96.4 6.0% 2.61
Peyton Manning Tennessee 863 1381 62.5 11201 8.1 8.3 89 33 147.1 6.4% 2.70
Pro Career 4682 7210 64.9 54828 7.6 7.5 399 198 94.9 7.8% 2.02
Eli Manning Mississippi 829 1363 60.8 10119 7.4 7.5 81 35 137.7 6.6% 2.31
Pro Career 2291 3921 58.4 27579 7.0 6.5 185 129 82.1 7.9% 1.43
Philip Rivers N.C State 1087 1711 63.5 13484 7.9 8.1 95 34 144.1 5.4% 2.79
Pro Career 1930 3037 63.5 24285 8.0 7.9 163 78 95.5 7.0% 2.09
Ben Roethlis Miami (OH) 854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3 7.6% 2.47
Pro Career 2090 3313 63.1 26579 8.0 7.7 165 100 92.1 8.2% 1.65
Joe Flacco Delware 596 942 63.3 7057 7.5 7.6 41 15 137.4 4.3% 2.73
Pro Career 1190 1958 60.8 13816 7.1 6.8 80 46 86.0 6.0% 1.74
Matthew Stafford Georgia 564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3 7.8% 1.55
Pro Career 679 1136 59.8 7840 6.9 6.5 60 37 84.7 8.1% 1.62
Matt Schaub Virginia 716 1069 67.0 7502 7.0 7.0 56 26 138.4 7.4% 2.15
Pro Career 1466 2279 64.3 17936 7.9 7.6 98 58 92.2 7.1% 1.69
Alex Smith Utah 389 587 66.3 5203 8.9 9.9 47 8 164.4 4.0% 5.88
Pro Career 1137 1959 58.0 12543 6.4 5.8 68 58 76.4 7.1% 1.17
Mark Sanchez USC 313 487 64.3 3965 8.1 8.3 41 16 153.9 9.2% 2.56
Pro Career 782 1414 55.3 9209 6.5 5.7 55 51 73.2 8.1% 1.08
Rex Grossman Florida 677 1110 61.0 9164 8.3 8.2 77 36 146.7 8.3% 2.14
Pro Career 863 1562 55.2 10232 6.6 5.5 56 60 71.4 8.6% 0.93
Colt McCoy Texas 1157 1645 70.3 13253 8.1 8.2 112 45 155.0 9.2% 2.49
Pro Career 400 685 58.4 4309 6.3 5.6 20 20 74.5 7.0% 1.00
Chad Henne Michigan 828 1387 59.7 9715 7.0 7.1 87 37 133.9 6.6% 2.35
Pro Career 646 1065 60.7 7114 6.7 5.7 31 37 75.7 8.8% 0.84
Matt Moore Oregon St. 440 733 60.0 5733 7.8 7.0 29 26 131.7 8.9% 1.12
Pro Career 437 739 59.1 5137 7.0 6.2 32 26 80.1 8.6% 1.23
Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard 265 454 58.4 3756 8.3 8.2 29 14 142.8 7.4% 2.07
Pro Career 1032 1744 59.2 10936 6.3 5.4 68 65 75.0 9.1% 1.05
Name School Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Int % of Inc. TD to Int Ratio
Andrew Luck Stanford 713 1064 67.0 9430 8.9 9.5 82 22 162.8 6.3% 3.73
Robert Griffin III Baylor 800 1192 67.1 10366 8.7 9.4 78 17 158.9 4.3% 4.59
Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M 484 774 62.5 5450 7.0 6.9 42 21 134.2 7.2% 2.00
Brock Osweiler Arizona St. 412 680 60.6 5082 7.5 7.5 33 15 135.0 5.6% 2.20
Brandon Weeden Oklahoma St. 766 1102 69.5 9260 8.4 8.7 75 27 157.7 8.0% 2.78
Kirk Cousins Michigan St. 723 1128 64.1 9131 8.1 8.1 66 30 146.1 7.4% 2.20
Nick Foles Arizona 938 1403 66.9 10068 7.2 7.1 67 33 138.2 7.1% 2.03
Ryan Lindley S.D State 961 1732 55.5 12690 7.3 7.1 90 47 128.8 6.1% 1.91
Case Keenum Houston 1546 2229 69.4 19217 8.6 9.1 155 46 160.6 6.7% 3.37
Kellen Moore Boise St. 1157 1658 69.8 14667 8.8 9.8 142 28 169.0 5.6% 5.07
Russell Wilson Wisconsin 907 1489 60.9 11720 7.9 8.4 109 30 147.2 5.2% 3.63
Austin Davis S. Mississippi 933 1527 61.1 10892 7.1 7.4 83 27 135.4 4.5% 3.07

Comparing from these numbers, a college production statistical comparison could be made the following way:

Andrew Luck to Peyton Manning = upper

Robert Griffin to Alex Smith = middle

Ryan Tannehill to Matt Schaub = middle

Brock Osweiler to Philip Rivers = middle/upper

Brandon Weeden to Rex Grossman = lower

Kirk Cousins to Matt Schaub = middle

Nick Foles to Tom Brady = upper, or an anomaly?

Ryan Lindley to Chade Henne = lower

Case Keenum to Colt McCoy = lower

Kellen Moore to Aaron Rodgers = upper

Russell Wilson to Aaron Rodgers = upper

Austin Davis to Alex Smith = middle


So what does this all mean? In reality, probably nothing, In regard to drafting for value, both Moore and Wilson are slated as late round prospects that should present excellent potential value to cost along with my personal favourite (outside of Luck) Osweiler in the 2nd/3rd.

As a final point, please don't think that I am saying that Wilson or Moore and better QB's than Griffin or Tannehill or that Nick Foles will be the next Tom Brady etc, this is purely based on stats produced in college compared to current starting QB's.

Thanks for reading, go Phins!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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