Summary: #8: Quentin Coples (DE - North Carolina), #42: Brock Osweiler (QB - Arizona State), #72: Marvin McNutt (WR - Iowa), #73 Kelechi Osemele (OG/OT - Iowa State), #103: Brandon Mosely (OT - Auburn), #145: Tommy Streeter (WR - Miami), #196: Julian Miller (DE43/OLB34 - West Virginia), # 215: Cameron Chism (CB - Maryland).
This mock includes no trades. Therefore it will not be accurate to the final draft. Miami has got 4 top NEEDS going into the draft that must be addressed as soon as feasible. This means not wasting the pick to get a guy but insuring that we get THE guy to fill the hole on the roster. Those needs are QB, DE/OLB (pass rusher), WR & RT. We either have no future at these spots or have a very shallow talent pool loaded with question marks. We have wants (CB, seem-threat TE, S and RG) but those will have to be addressed later in the draft unless a can't miss guy is sitting there and those are unlikely for us except in rounds 2 or 3. Sorry for the length but I wanted to be thorough.
Round 1 - Pick #8: Quentin Coples (DE - North Carolina)
This is the lynchpin pick. Everything will unfold based off of what we do here. We really have only 2 foreseeable true options here. We either are going with a QB (Tannehill) or we are going with a pass rusher (Coples or Ingram). Whichever position we pass on is almost guaranteed to be addressed with pick #42. I cannot stress enough that we cannot help ourselves this year at QB. No matter who we select they will not see regular season action before our 2013 1st round pick does. This isn't a problem if you forget that we have had some fans going to extraordinary lengths to get the GM fired which may force his hand here. I don't believe Ireland will flinch from his game plan but it certainly gives him added reason to take a QB here since (A.) it buys him time since he drafted a QB that cannot fail until 2013 and (B.) we have clamored for a first round QB for years.
Now if Ireland thinks Tannehill is the guy and Sherman doesn't dissuade him behind closed doors then this is a pick I will be 100% behind. However after reviewing each of the QB options for us I cannot agree that Tannehill is the best QB let alone the best value in the draft so I will roll the dice on the hidden gem (Since I can't trade back). This leaves BPA at need here and that will be Coples or Ingram. I firmly believe Ingram will go by #7 but if he is here then HE is the pick instead of Coples. We need a pass rusher and Coples is a freak. Coples also should have a chip on his shoulder from everyone questioning his drive. This will serve as extra motivation to excel. He needs at least 6 sacks on the season but he can obtain this. Coples may need to work on his coverage skills for 3-4 sets since he is less skilled at 3-4 OLB than at 4-3 DE.
Round 2 - Pick #42: Brock Osweiler (QB - Arizona State)
If I was allowing for trades then I would have traded back into round 1 and picked up an additional 2nd rounder which I would have used to either trade back into round 1 or to take a pass rusher. If I felt that Osweiler might get taken I use my now late first rounder on him and then use this pick on a pass rusher. *NOTE* I would rather not take a QB this year but Ireland may have to in order to placate the rabid fans wanting his head on a platter.
Why Osweiler? Why not get Tannehill and be done with it? Why in the hell are we drafting ANOTHER 2nd round QB?!?! I can hear the boos already but examine the options a bit more closely and you will see that Osweiler has a bigger ceiling than Tannehill and needs only to refine his decision making abilities and deep passes to become a franchise QB. Osweiler is way under the radar for his capabilities since everyone is focusing on the top 3 and rarely looking at the guys in round 2. When they do they immediately stop at Weeden since he would be a 1st rounder if not for his age. Osweiler has hurt himself by his lack of workouts via the combine and pro days. Osweiler reportedly has tweaked his throwing motion as well and appears comfortable with it and hit his WRs in stride at the ASU pro day. His deep ball accuracy still needs work but he was money on short routes and very good on intermediates. He can refine that deep ball over 2012 and blow the roof off of the AFC East in 2013. His size is a plus and his mobility in the pocket is surprisingly good.
Still why not go for Tannehill instead? How about comparing the two based on their competition? Adjust the performances to see who is really better in other words. Both QBs faced Mizzou in 2011. Tannehill went 35 for 53 (66.0%) for 317 yards (5.98 yds/att) while tossing 3 TDs and 1 INT giving him an NFL QB rating of 93.0 (Not too bad). Osweiler went 24 for 32 (75%) for 353 yards (11.03 yds/att) while tossing 3 TDs and no INTs giving him an NFL QB rating of 141.8 (Almost perfect). If it matters to you, both went into OT but ASU won while Texas A&M lost. Comparing the two in their best games (Games where the QB posted a NCAA QB rating of 135 or better) you find the following (Click image to enlarge):
In simple terms, Osweiler was better than Tannehill despite playing better opposing defenses. Tannehill was mostly performing to what his opponents presented him with. Osweiler exceeds Tannehill at every turn especially if you factor in their lesser games. Remember these are only games where the QBs posted a 135 NCAA QB rating or better. Actually, I added Missouri to Tannehill since he posted a 131.2 rating and it evened both QBs out at 7 games each. Osweiler did have a 133.8 rated game against UCLA but I wanted to keep it even and the common foe opponent (Missouri) was more important. So why not Tannehill? Easy, because we can get a QB that is bigger, has larger hands (better at securing the ball; i.e. Fewer fumbles) and won't cost us our #1 pick while having just as big a ceiling if not bigger.
Round 3 - Pick #72: Marvin McNutt (WR - Iowa)
Why not take Osweiler here? The answer is that due to teams reaching on QBs, Osweiler can go anywhere from round 2 to round 4 (ESPN has him ranked 39th overall) and it wouldn't surprise anyone. Also as Armando has said, we should reach for a franchise QB. This leaves us still needing at least 1 WR, a RT and we could stand to add another WR and a CB. McNutt is an almost no-brainer pick that can happen anywhere as high as round 2 and as low as round 5. His size, hands and route running are very good and he should be an excellent west coast WR at the next level. I know he has a familiarity tie to our coaching staff but that didn't help Flynn or (I hope) Tannehill. Still, given BPA and our needs McNutt should be a given if he is still available.
Round 3 - Pick #73: Kelechi Osemele (OG/OT - Iowa State)
This pick was a tough one since there will be several needs that can be addressed here. We need an OT but we also could use help at CB, OG and WR. The deepest of these positions is still WR so it's out. Guard is currently a major question mark for us going forward (At least we have options at CB) so if a starter is there we need to take him. Osemele is a big load at 6' 5.5" and 333 lbs but he also has really quick feet (Especially for a guy his size) and long arms to keep D Linemen at bay. He mirrors his attacker well and can shut down pass rushers. Osemele played left tackle last year so he could potentially provide depth there but he can be a monster on the inside. He is more of a power blocker and would be better suited there than in a zone blocking scheme but he should be able to use his quickness to be successful in Philbin's offense. Another option at guard is Brandon Washington but Osemele has a greater versatility, appears to be stronger and wouldn't be a reach like Washington. If Osemele is gone then Washington is the pick.
Round 4 - Pick #103: Brandon Mosely (OT - Auburn)
This may end up being high for Mosely but this will depend on what OTs are left at the start of the round. Mosely is a big guy that does need some work but he has the best injury history, fitness level and experience of the tackles that I expect to be left here so he gets the nod. He won't likely start in 2012 but could elevate to primary backup at tackle and 1 injury could press him into a starting role if he surpasses Artis Hicks.
Round 5 - Pick #145: Tommy Streeter (WR - The U)
At this point we have solidified the right side of the o-line, locked down Brandon Marshall's replacement, and bolstered our pass rush (Hopefully with the scheme versatile Ingram instead of Coples but I digress). So now what? Well, we are in the BPA territory and our main needs are met so this leaves quality depth as the target. This puts a spotlight squarely on WR and CB as well as an potentially capable pass rushers. Was there any doubt I was putting Streeter here? I said months ago I wanted us to jump on him since he can develop into a pro bowl WR specializing in Red zone, intermediate and deep passing situations. Streeter has the size and skill to become a dominant wideout. He just needs experience and quality coaching with some time to develop. Why he didn't return to Miami for his senior year is beyond me. Streeter may be gone in round 4 but that will be determined by how many WRs in front of him are gone by the start of round 4. I would gladly take him at #103 if that is what it took. I would sooner trade back in round 4 and pick up a 6th rounder in next years draft but this is a no trade draft.
Round 6 - Pick #196: Julian Miller (4-3 DE/ 3-4 OLB - West Virginia)
I'm not a big Mountaineers fan but Miller has a great combination of strength and size and has serious potential as a pass rusher that can also stand up and set the edge well against the run game. Might as well double down on pass rushers and hope they both can produce to some degree. I wouldn't bet money on Miller unseating Misi but it wouldn't shock me either. This is a good low risk high reward kind of pick that might pay big dividends.
Round 7 - Pick #215: Cameron Chism (CB - Maryland)
played extremely well against Miami last season and could go higher than #215 but if he is there we should take the flier on him and see if he can make the cut. The other option is draft another offensive lineman here for depth.