So I’ve been reading everyone elses mock drafts and decided I should make my own. Great back story, eh? Anyways, since everything has been said and done, I’ll just get started.
1. Quinton Coples (UNC)
First off, as you may know, I am not a big fan on Tannehill. I think we would be better off seeing what our two current QBs have, and either taking Weeden or Cousins and letting them develop/play, or waiting until next year. When you have a top ten pick, you use it on top 10 talent. We aren’t one piece away from a playoff team, lets get to that point before we risk it all.
Ideally, I think we would trade down and pick up an extra second round pick. We need all the young talent we can get, and I don’t see anybody we NEED to get at number eight. If tannehill falls to us at around number 20, then I wouldn’t mind taking him, and I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see him fall that far (though he probably won’t, I could see a Brady Quinn like thing going on).
Now, back to my actual pick. I think there are five possible choices here. Tannehill is the first. Floyd (WR) is second, but I have a feeling that after the whole Ted Ginn incident we won’t pick a WR that high. We have Hartline, who is respectable at the least, so we aren't that desperate either. Also, this is the deepest draft for WRs I’ve seen in the past few years. A WR picked in round five this year would normally be a round 3 pick (I saw one board which say there are 30 round 5 or better caliber WRs in this years draft... Thats one in every 5 picks). No need to rush to get one. The third possibility is Riley Rieff (OT). As an Iowa hawkeye fan, I can say he was a solid OT throughout his time there. Iowa is known for great Offensive lineman, and I wouldn’t be disappointed with this pick. I have yet to see an Iowa O-Lineman fail in the NFL (Keep in mind our WR coach was the Offensive Coordinator at Iowa last year. I’ll get back to that later). That being said, there are better players at pick number eight. The last two candidates are Melvin Ingram and Coples. Both are first round talent, but I’d put Ingram in the category with Reiff as a 15-25 pick. Most other sites have Ingram around number 15, so I was kind of surprised that alot of Phinsiders had him so high. I’m no expert at rating DEs or LBs, but the general consensus is that Coples is better, so I’ll stick with that. I’ll trust Ireland with his pick of either, however,since he’s the one spending hours trying to figure out which one is better (also,Coples could be off the board, so we could end up with no choice in the matter).
2. Bobby Massie (Miss)
Here, ideally, a first round talent would fall. Someone like Mike Adams, Coby Fleener, or Kevin Zeitler would be great, though i doubt they will be on the board. Unfortunately for us, no safety who is any good will be on the board either (I’m not big on Smith, and we could trade down and get him if they wanted him... man, we really could have ended up 9-7 last season and got the same players we would get in some mock drafts without trading i.e. Smith, Tannehill). That leaves us with three positions of need; QB, WR, and OT. QBs in the second round on tend to be hit and miss, so a QB from round 2 would have about the same chance at success as a round four QB. The level of talent from Offensive lineman drops dramatically in the later rounds, so I would think that would be the pick here. Massie is just the best one who i think would be on the board.
3a. Brandon Weeden (OSU) “I’m a Man! I’m 27!”
For clarification, Weeden in the ideal choice here, thou I think we take the best QB on the board and see what becomes of him.
I think that early in the second round we can pick a QB who has about the same chance of success as any other in the draft barring Luck and Griffin. The big question is who falls here. Chances are Tannehill is off the board, as are two of Osweiler, Cousins, and Weeden. Should we take a QB here, I don’t know. I have a feeling Ireland will be forced to take one somewhere along the line so here is probably the place to do it. In the end, I hope Weeden falls here since he is the least likely to be a project, and thus we will know if we need a QB next year or not. with the other two you can’t expect great things in year one. Most teams who draft QBs in round 2 or 3 have older QBs and are looking for potential a few years down the line, like what the Patriots often do. Thus I think (hope) Weeden will fall.
3b. Marvin McNutt (Iowa)
This pick I see as inevitable. Our WR coach taught McNutt everything he knows about being a WR (he was recruited as a QB) when he was the offensive coordinator at Iowa (He’s like Tannehill but backwards, he went from QB to WR). Marvin also is extremely similar to Marshall in that he isn’t the fastest guy of the turf, but he is one of the tallest, and is great at precision root running. We already have a couple project speed guys in Gates and the other guy, but Bess and Hartline lack a third complement, which I could see McNutt becoming.
4. Kyle Wilber (Wake Forest)
I would love it if Sean Spence fell here, but I doubt that will happen. The class of OLBs is deep this year, and we can find good talent. Kyle Wilber showed what he was made of after a great showing at the combine. He was one of two half decent players on the Deamon Deacon defense, and achieved great numbers while being the focus of the offense.
5. T.Y. Hilton (FIU)
At this point, you never know who you will get. Some players get drafted early, some drop, and you rarely get a true starter. You are better off trying to find the diamond in the rough than drafting for need here, unless you are stocked at a position (like we are at RB). Most people assume we need two WRs this draft, and this year, if there’s one position we can get a good player out of this late, it’s WR. Hilton was a speed demon at FIU, which provides a nice contrast to Marvin McNutt. He also is a Kick Returner, which wasn’t our strong point (although the position could be obsolete in a few years, we could be getting a Devin hester like player here).
6. Keith Tandy (West Virginia)
Again, at this point you are drafting for potential rather than immediate impact. Tandy is an extremely interesting CB, and although we already have a couple good CBs, he could end up being just as good. He switched positions from QB (like McNutt), and therefore knows how the offense works much better than the average defensive back. He’s athletic and smart, and has shown work ethic and willingness to trust coaches, as shown by his change in position. He looks like a very promising prospect whom nobody is talking about.
7. Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State)
Kelcie is a safety out of Arkansas State, and he could be a good player down the road. He has height, which you can’t teach, and is a big advantage. he’s also pretty fast and has a good work ethic, which is the biggest thing you look for in a later round candidate, as that’s what turns promise into prominence.
In the end, most people will judge this draft from what we do in the first round. I believe, however, that the make or break picks will be our duel third rounders. Outside of Tannehill, all the possible first round picks seem like sure things (not saying Tannehill couldn’t be good, but its not assured by any means compared to the other players). We also have a lot of choices for our second round pick and we should be able to get a strong player to fill a need there as well. The third round is where most of the question mark prospects are, and if we can pull out two good prospects, we would end up in a great position, even if our second round pick is a bust. Chances are, we will pick at least one QB or WR in those rounds, and if we can pull a good one out, we’d be in an amazing position to make the playoffs.