What do you see?
Oh the Schedule... its such a wonderful thing. I see Miami is coming to Cincinnati, and Indianapolis this year, which means I'm likely going to get to attend 2 games. (If anyone plans on heading to those games let me know). The Indy game will be a freaking blast thats gonna require me showing up a day early... I've done a lot of stomping around in Indy when I was a DJ, and that means trouble will be afoot.
Anyway, back to the Rant.
What happens when the schedule comes out? The prognosticators come out, and by morning we'll have people telling us how many wins they see, how many losses etc.... and I'll be one of them. Kind of.
You see, I heard a point of view today on Colin Cowherd's show, that really REALLY made me reconsider how I view the schedule, and its impact upon our season as well as our goal of getting a franchise Quarterback.
How so you ask?
The Quarterbacks. Its all about the Quarterbacks. Not just ours, but the ones on the teams we are facing.
With the right QB, you can expect to win almost every game, or at least be in a position to win. There are only a few of those in the league, and we aren't lucky enough to have one of them.
So, lets say you put the Quarterbacks in Tier's. We'll put the Elite guys that can beat you by themselves, in Tier 1. We'll put the guys who are good but not great in Tier 2, and in Tier 3, we are putting rookies and guys that nobody is afraid of. I'm putting us down as a loss for every one of the Tier 1 guys, simply because our offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with them. With our defense, we should expect to win about 50% against the Tier 2 guys, and we should beat all of the Tier 3 guys based on our Defense alone, at least in my own not so humble opinion.
For the record, Matt Moore & David Garrard, are Tier 3 QB's... maybe Moore is closer to Tier 2, but there isn't a Defensive Coordinator in the League that sits down and thinks, "Damn it, how the hell am I gonna stop Matt Moore or David Garrard, it boggles the mind".
Who is in Tier 1? (QB's we should lose to)
Peyton Manning (Broncos)
Big Ben (Steelers)
Eli Manning (Giants)
Phillip Rivers (Chargers)
How many games do we play these guys?
ONLY 2 THIS SEASON (Brady, twice)
So, Who is in Tier 2? (QB's we should go 50/50 with)
Matt Schaub (Texans)
Cam Newton (Panthers)
Joe Flacco (Ravens)
Matt Stafford (Lions)
Matt Ryan (Falcons)
Josh Freeman (Bucs)
Tony Romo (Cowboys)
Mike Vick (Eagles)
Carson Palmer (Raiders)
Sam Bradford (Rams)
Matt Hasselback (Titans)
Mark Sanchez (Jets)
Andy Dalton (Bengals)
Alex Smith (Niners)
Jay Cutler (Bears)
How many games do we play against these guys?
8. (Texans, Raiders, Rams, Titans, Jets x2, Bengals, Niners)
And Finally Tier 3 (QB's we should expect to beat)
Colt Mccoy (Browns)
Joe Webb/Christian Ponder (Vikings)
Andrew Luck (Colts)
Blaine Gabbert (Jags) (if its Henne, I make him a Tier 2)
Matt Moore / David Garrard (Dolphins)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills)
Griffin III (Redskins)
Matt Cassel (Chiefs)
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals)
Tavaris Jackson (Seahawks)
How many games do we play against these guys?
6. (Bills x2, Jags, Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts)
Whats the Initial Result? 10 - 6
We lose 2 to Brady, and 4 more to the tier 2 guys.... thats only 6 losses. That means we've actually got a shot at being a 10 win team...... Now, I look at our team, and think... No way in Hell are we a ten win team. So lets look a little closer.
Tier 2 - I think the Texans, Bengals, Niners are definite losses. I also think we split with the Jets....so do I see an extra loss coming from the Raiders, Rams, or Titans? I don't know. Rams are a mess, and no have no DC, Titans have a shot but we play them at Home, and the Raiders have Palmer, who I reluctantly made a Tier 2....but he's played like a Tier 3 guy for the last several years. So if I had to pick one, I'll say maybe the Titans find a way to win even though its a Home game for us, I can't see the other teams getting it together. That makes us 9-7..
Tier 1 - No way the Jags, Seahawks, or Colts beat us. The Cardinals MAYBE but they were horrible a year ago, so that leaves the Bills who have had a ton of upgrades this offseason. So, lets give the Bills a split. Thats 8-8.... and if we give the Cardinals a win since its an away game, we're 7-9 at worst....
Thats right, I look at our schedule, and I have to find a way for us to lose more than 6-7 games. I don't think my logic is that far off (do you?). This is the season I wanted to play all Tier 1 guys, and put us in contention for the likes of Barkley...
I just don't see any way possible for us to be in position for a high first round pick next season. Things are going to have to go drastically wrong AGAIN, for us to not be a middle of the road team... HELL we could be 10-6 or 9-7 easily... and its not a big stretch to get there.
We've got an outside shot, but a shot, at a playoff run. We have a weak as hell schedule, which should translate to wins
Unless we make MAJOR moves trading back for future picks in this draft, we're going to be on the outside looking in as far as being in position next years draft.
Am I crazy? Does this make sense to anyone? Do you agree with me? Is my logic sound?
Am I typing to myself?