NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 28: NFL Commissoner Roger Goodell speaks at the podium during the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall on April 28, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
There is no doubting the Miami Dolphins need some skill players in the 2012 NFL Draft. There are glaring holes all across the board, from quarterback to wide receiver, and you could even argue they need to draft a tight end or a running back. But, how well do teams draft those positions, are where do you have to find them in the draft?
Funny you should ask (okay, I asked, but that's a technicality). Jon Bois from SB Nation recently did a breakdown of how well teams draft the skill posisitions. I will let you read the full article, but I will give you a look at what their analysis shows about teams drafting a quarterback.
There were multiple looks at each position, but the best one, and prbably the most fear inducing, is the Average Weighted Career Approximate Value (CarAV) per player, by the draft position selected. As Bois explains, "Approximate Value is a statistical metric that reduces a player's overall value to a single number. I took a variant of this, Weighted Career Approximate Value (CarAV), and then found each player's average per season (so that we could include players who have only been in the league for three or four years)."
Now, to give you a look at the QB break down:
"This plot is probably the scariest. Look at those dots hugging the left margin -- in other words, the top-three picks -- and observe how spread out they are. You might get a Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers or Drew Brees, but you're just as likely to end up with a Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell or Kyle Boller.
"Good-to-great quarterbacks are relatively scarce, though, and in order to land one, you're almost always going to have to bet your first pick on him. If you settle for a quarterback in the third round or later, you're almost certainly drafting Josh McCown.
"In conclusion, my personal advice to general managers across the NFL is resist the temptation to draft bad football players, and remember to draft good football players."
I will say, I agree with Bois. Maybe the Dolphins should try to draft good football players, and stay away from bad ones (I'm looking at you Yatil Green).