So the QB situation in Miami isn't great. We've got two veteran QBs who were fired from their previous starting roles. Moore and Garrard are each under contract for 2012. Barring either having a breakout season this year with the Dolphins, we're likely to need a new starting QB in 2013.
My thinking is that, realistically, this team could finish at our now trademark level of 6-9 wins with defense and a good running game, making it tough to draft a top QB in 2013. Drafting a QB this year would give him a year to learn the system and develop before taking over in 2013 if neither Moore nor Garrard win fans over this year.
Luck has always been out of reach because the Colts were truly terrible without Manning, but I felt confident we'd get either Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, or RG 3. Then the first two decided to stay in college and the Redskins fell in love with RG 3, so those options are gone.
Now, people are losing hope because they think the Cleveland Browns will take Tannehill at #4 since they were interested in RG 3. However, RG 3 is a much more developed QB than Tannehill. Just because the Browns valued RG3 as a top 5 pick doesn't mean they feel the same way about Tannehill.
So, let's say that the Cleveland Browns don’t take Tannehill at #4, and instead take Trent Richardson.
In that case, the only other teams that *might* draft a QB in the first round are the Kansas City Chiefs (who aren’t completely sold on Matt Cassell) and the Arizona Cardinals (who clearly regret signing Kevin Kolb).
I know people keep saying that Tannehill’s draft stock is rising, but literally, I can’t think of any teams who would use a 1st round pick on him besides the Browns, Chiefs, and Cardinals, all of whom have other needs and starting QBs that were recently signed/drafted. Then of course, there's our Miami Dolphins.
I don’t want to trade *UP* for Tannehill because the Dolphins have a TON of needs after a rather uninspiring free agency so far.
Also, while quarterbacks last year were drafted higher than expected, that also means a lot of teams just recently spent a high pick on a QB and won’t want to do it again on a project QB this year. The Manning and Flynn signings to the Broncos and Seahawks further limits the number of teams looking for QBs.
That gives Miami options depending on how much they value Tannehill.