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Evaluating Draft Success

15

Here’s Polian’s formula: "I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20. If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven… "You either make it or you don’t. We’ve been above the .570 mark when you count collegiate free agents like Melvin Bullitt who come in and play, and they count. So we’ve been above the .570 mark. This past year we could get close to the .640 mark drafting 31st but it’s early." ... Reinfeldt has different ways of judging his selections and the work of his scouting and coaching staffs and measuring it against the rest of the league. "If you look historically, teams get 2.3 starters per draft and as a team, I think you need to strive to get three starters per draft, or I should say players worthy of starting. Is Jared Cook a starter? Not really but he’s good enough to be a starter in certain situations. Are Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty? Well, in the right situation, probably." Getting three starting-worthy players in a seven-pick draft would amount to a .429 hit rate. Reinfeldt also looked at a second method for evaluating draft success that combines a number of different factors. Judging productive players or players who have NFL-caliber traits over the last five or six years, he sees a .560 hit percentage for the first and second rounds; .350 for the third, fourth and fifth rounds; and .333 for the sixth and seventh rounds. "The hit becomes a little bit easier to define there," he said. "A guy could be a good role player there and be a hit [based on where he was taken]." "Even in the first two rounds, you’re going to miss 44 percent of the time," Reinfeldt said. "… It’s a tough business. There is a lot of exposure to it. I think you need to be realistic and compare historically to what other clubs have done." ... Anyone else think Ireland is not as terrible as the majority of fans would have you believe? Compare his drafting to the Patriots Bills or Jets since 2008, and also consider even if some of those players are not on our team, quite a few of the Rooks he brought in and kept for over a 12 month period are now starting/backup/roleplayer on another team.

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