Which I am not, of course. First of all, just let me introduce myself, as it is the very first time I’m posting here, though I’ve been lurking around for quite a bit. As you can guess I’m from Spain, so please take anything I say with a grain of salt, or two: I get to see loads of NFL games, but about zero college games (well, not zero, but just three or four a year), so I’ve got no formed opinion on college players.
Now, to the point. First thing: I’m not sold on Flynn. Not at all. I don’t doubt that he’ll become a decent QB in the NFL, a nice starter who might even rack up big stats. I just don’t see him being great. And for the first time in a lifetime, I think the Dolphins can afford to get a great QB, or at least a potentially great QB. I’ll get to that in a minute.
Since I’m not sold on Flynn, what I see before me (in my Ireland impersonation) are two potential scenarios:
Case A: Peyton Manning is fully (or at least 90%) recovered by the start of free agency… and willing to sign for Miami. Then I just sign him. Incentive laden contract and all, but do anything I can to sign him. If the cap room is there (and it should be), I get Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garçon too. If I’m getting Manning, my SuperBowl window is just three, four years at best. So I try to get Manning as comfy as possible from the very start. Manning with Marshall, Wayne, Garçon, Bess and Fasano as targets sounds more than enough to me. Reggie Bush as a pass catching RB also seems like a nice fit.
Then there’s the draft. What I do with the draft is trade down in the first round. My goal is to get a low first round pick this year… and a first round pick next year. IIRC, there’s been lots of this trades in the past few years, so it should be doable. If I get an offer for my second round pick in the form of another first round pick for next year… then I also do it. As you can see, what I’m doing is piling up first round picks for next year because my goal then is… to get the QB for the future.
From what I read (more than I see, as said above), that should be either Matt Barkley or Landry Jones. And with Manning on board, I’m quite confident that I’ll need to trade up to get any of them. Having two first round picks next year sure would help doing it. Having three even more. With the remaining picks I draft at least an offensive lineman, a safety and, if possible, a tight end. I understand the need for a pass rusher, but I guess that would be difficult to get in the third round or later.
Case B: Peyton Manning is not fully recovered, or doesn’t want to sign with Miami. Then my target in free agency is Mario Williams. Break the bank and get him. At any cost. If there’s some money left, and again there should be, I try to get a receiver, a cheap one, but that should be productive. Again, Pierre Garçon seems like a nice option. Maybe Josh Morgan. I’d love to get Jermichael Finley… if the price’s right. Yes, he drops quite a few, but having two good TEs will make my new QB’s life much easier. But Mario Williams is my primary goal.
Where do I get my QB then? In the draft. I aim at the top pick, and offer whatever I need to get it. If it’s three first round picks, then so be it. If I also need to throw a second or third round pick, then I throw it. I want Andrew Luck. I don’t want Robert Griffin, who might be OK, but looks as a much bigger bust risk to me. Even with Luck, he might need some time to fully develop, so I’m guessing I need to win with defense the first (maybe) two seasons. That’s why I went for Mario Williams. And that’s why, apart from an offensive lineman, I’m using any other pick I have left on defense. A safety and whatever is available with my pick that looks as a good pick. Be it a tackle, a DE, a LB or a safety.
Quite frankly, I’d rather do Case A. And I only do Case B if my scouts tell me that Luck is the real deal. There’s also the possibility of doing some kind of mixture of both options: I sign Mario Williams, trade down in the draft to accumulate picks for next years, go with Matt Moore for 2012 and try to get Matt Barkley or Landry Jones in 2013.
But what it’s crystal clear to me is that I’ve got to risk it this time. I need to get that great QB that makes me a real contender. Not a good team that makes it to the playoffs, but a real SB threat. If I f*** it up, I know we’re screwed for the next few years, but I’d rather think big that be content with being just another 10-6/9-7 team always on the verge. And to avoid that… I need the great QB. Which Flynn does not look like, by any means.