People often use QB ratings as a barometer as to whether a QB is good or not, but do they really matter? You can have the highest QB rating, but if you don't win the Big dance, so what? I wanted to see if there was a direct correlation between QB ratings and whether that meant you won the Super Bowl and I was surprised by the results.
Rather than list every Super Bowl, I went back the last 11 starting in 2000, which QB's played, who won or lost, and where those QB's ranked in the regular season for QB ratings in the league.
|SB||YEAR||Winning QB||Reg Season
|Losing QB||Reg Season
|XLV||2010||Aaron Rodgers||101.2||3||Ben Roethlisberger||97.0||5|
|XLIV||2009||Drew Brees||109.6||1||Peyton Manning||99.9||6|
|XLIII||2008||Ben Roethlisberger||80.1||24||Kurt Warner||96.9||3|
|XLII||2007||Eli Manning||73.9||25||Tom Brady||117.2||1|
|XLI||2006||Peyton Manning||101.0||1||Rex Grossman||73.9||24|
|XL||2005||Ben Roethlisberger||98.6||3||Matt Hasselbeck||98.2||4|
|XXXIX||2004||Tom Brady||92.6||9||Donovan McNabb||104.7||4|
|XXXVIII||2003||Tom Brady||85.9||10||Jake Delhomme||80.6||14|
|XXXVII||2002||Brad Johnson||92.9||3||Rich Gannon||97.3||2|
|XXXVI||2001||Tom Brady||86.5||6||Kurt Warner||101.4||1|
|XXXV||2000||Trent Dilfer||76.6||20||Kerry Collins||83.1||12|
||9.5 average||95.47 average
Some interesting stats:
On average, in the past 11 years, Super Bowl winning QB's had lower QB ratings (90.81) in the regular season than losing Super Bowl QB's (95.47).
In 2007, Eli Manning had a regular season QB rating of only 73.9 and won the Super Bowl, yet Tom Brady had the best regular season QB rating of 117.2 and lost.
All QB's combined average QB rating rank averaged 8.22 so if I was going to pull a stat out of a hat, this is the one would be the one I look for. Consistently Rank in the Top 8 for QB ratings and you're in the elite.
These stats show that just because you have a high QB rating, it doesn't always translate into winning the Super Bowl. Sure, you would like to have a QB with the best QB rating year in and year out, but while higher usually means better, it doesn't always mean winner.