Finhead's Mock Draft: Version 4
This is my fourth version of the mock draft and there have been a few changes. The draft order for the postseason games from 31 and 32 reflect how I feel the Super Bowl will play out. As always, an * indicates picks that will be determined by a coin flip. As a note, I will not include trade scenarios in the mock drafts. I know there certainly could be moves made and I'm sure there will be at least one trade in the NFL Draft in April, but I will not include them here. I am simply giving a mock draft based on the current order.
1) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB: It is looking almost certain the Colts will draft Luck, but Manning's future with the club is less certain. Taking Luck is the best thing for the franchise, even if it does mean that it'll cause you to lose arguably the best player in team history and one of the best QBs to ever play in the NFL.
2) St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR: I have been thinking Matt Kalil would be the most likely candidate until recently. I am thinking the Rams just may consider getting a LT with their second round pick. When it comes to taking Blackmon, the top WR, and a good, but not great LT in the second, I think the Rams will find that option preferable. This could go back to Kalil if the Rams address their WR needs in free agency. Another option is the Rams could just trade back if one of the teams interested in Robert Griffin III wishes to trade up.
Previous pick: Matt Kalil, OT
3) Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT: Morris Claiborne is also a consideration and Blackmon would go here if available. The Vikings may lean more towards Kalil than Claiborne because they need to protect Christian Ponder. This too is another position both the Dolphins and Redskins may look to trade for to get Griffin.
Previous pick: Justin Blackmon, WR
4) Cleveland Browns - Robert Griffin III, QB: Trent Richardson and, if available, Blackmon are both options here as well. I think the Browns selecting Griffin are about 50%, but the other half is divided by the other two players. Majority wins in this one. While the Browns likely still have faith in Colt McCoy, Griffin may just be too much to pass up.
Previous pick: Trent Richardson, RB
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trent Richardson, RB: LeGarrette Blount is a quality RB, but he lacks the versatility of Richardson. Richardson may not be at the Adrian Peterson hype level, but he is certainly at the hype level of a player like Darren McFadden.
Previous pick: Morris Claiborne, CB
6) Washington Redskins - Morris Claiborne, CB: Griffin would likely be the preferred choice, but the Redskins have the Browns in front of them and don't have the ammunition like the Browns do if both teams wish to enter a bidding war for the Baylor QB. Claiborne gives the Redskins a nice consolation prize.
Previous pick: Robert Griffin III, QB
7) Jacksonville Jaguars - Quinton Coples, DE: Aaron Kampman is getting up there in age and may not be back. Matt Roth just wasn't the answer for Jacksonville. Coples would do very well to help solidify their defensive line and will give Jacksonville a good pass rushing threat for the next several years in a division that has Matt Schaub, Jake Locker, and probably Andrew Luck.
*8) Miami Dolphins - Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB: The Dolphins would love to get Griffin and with a 4-3 defense, they'd also love to get Coples. Unfortunately, neither are available. Ingram is the next best option at DE to play opposite of Cameron Wake. Another option for Miami may be for them to try and move down toward the middle of the round and draft Ryan Tannehill, but with Griffin in Cleveland, they may be able to land Tannehill in the second, even if they have to trade up a few spots. Mark Barron would be a slight reach here, but could land with Miami to fill their need for a play-making Safety. Personally, I would absolutely love to have Blackmon at this spot as well. Having him and Marshall as a duo would help our starting QB, no matter who that happens to be.
Previous pick: Riley Reiff, OT
*9) Carolina Panthers - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: They may go with someone like Jonathan Martin as well, but they need help badly on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina allowed 8.4 YPA against the pass and Kirkpatrick could be a starter from day 1. He'd help fix their defense while their offense grows.
10) Buffalo Bills - Courtney Upshaw, OLB: The Bills drafted Upshaw's teammate, Marcel Dareus, last season and continue to shore up their defense. While Jonathan Martin would fill a huge hole here, the Bills have greater needs on defense and may look to shore up their shaky defense first. Upshaw is good, not elite, at rushing the passer and is considered a solid three-down LB. He doesn't show any glaring weaknesses in his game and will be the OLB the Bills were hoping Shawne Merriman would be.
*11) Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly, ILB: Their defense has underperformed and Kuechly will help solidify the LBs. They will look to resign CB Brandon Flowers and hope that he andBrandon Carr will rebound from underwhelming years. Eric Berry returning will also help their secondary.
*12) Seattle Seahawks - Riley Reiff, OT: For better or worse, Pete Carroll does like Tarvaris Jackson and I don't think Ryan Tannehill is on their radar this high in the draft. Seattle desperately needs help on the DL to help rush the QB and Devon Still could be an option, but they'll be all too happy to shore up their OT position with one of the top three OTs in the draft.
Previous Pick: Jonathan Martin, OT
13) Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT: Martin's slip ends here. Arizona would certainly target David DeCastro here as well, but they instead find a pleasant surprise as a great OT falls in their laps. They could look Vontaze Burfict or Courtney Upshaw with this pick too if they're available.
Previous pick: David DeCastro, OG
14) Dallas Cowboys - Alfonzo Dennard, CB: He was overshadowed by Prince Amukamara, but he is a very talented CB. He is fast and has fluid hips and can stick with fast WRs, but he's also powerful at the line when trying to jam WRs. A terrific prospect that can be a top NFL CB if he improves his footwork. His ability in run support could use improvement too. With Terrence Newman expected be out of Dallas this offseason, they will need all the help Dennard can provide.
15) Philadelphia Eagles - Vontaze Burfict, ILB: The weak link for the Eagles has been their LBs and FS, but they're not ready to give up on Nate Allen. Burfict would be an outstanding fit to improve their LB corps. Michael Floyd could be an option here if they've grown tired of DeSean Jackson.
16) New York Jets - Mark Barron, FS/SS: Courtney Upshaw could also be an option if available. The Jets have holes at both safety positions and could use a man like Barron to help solidify their weaknesses covering TEs. Barron isn't very good in man coverage and may be a bit stiff in the hips, but he's great in zone coverage with his ability to read the QB. His closing speed will be able to make up for many of his mistakes when he's slow to turn and run with a receiver. He's aggressive in run support, but will overrun on the play at times.
17) Cincinnati Bengals - Janoris Jenkins, CB: He'd be a top 10 pick if he wasn't in trouble with the Gators. The Bengals have Leon Hall, but Nate Clements is 32 and has been inconsistent. Jenkins and Hall could quickly become one of the better CB duos in the NFL.
18) San Diego Chargers - David DeCastro, OG: The Chargers need help at a few positions along the offensive line and DeCastro is the best OL prospect left on the board. The Chargers could also look to Andre Branch or another DE/OLB prospect to help improve their pass rush.
Previous pick: Andre Branch, DE/OLB
19) Chicago Bears - Michael Floyd, WR: They Bears need help at OL and need to upgrade their WRs. Roy Williams just isn't a dependable WR. As much as they'd to address OL, it's just a bit high for someone like Zebrie Sanders. Floyd though would be a very good pick for them.
20) Tennessee Titans - Andre Branch, DE: Karl Klug has been the top pass rusher for the Titans with 7 and they need to get some help to get to the passer. Branch has good speed, but he is sometimes slow off the snap. He has good hands and a good upper body. While he has been very good against the run, CB could be a hole if they don't resign Cortland Finnegan, but I already project the top CBs to be gone.
Previous pick: Melvin Ingram
21) Cincinnati Bengals - Lamar Miller, RB: Cedric Benson hasn't been very effective despite his rushing yards and he's a free agent. Miller is a home run threat and is quick to hit the holes. Miller is also a tough runner to bring down. It's possible Cincy could go with a Guard or Center like Cordy Glenn or Peter Konz, but there is a thin market for RBs in free agency and the Bengals need an upgrade in the backfield more than they do on the line.
22) Cleveland Browns (via Falcons) - Alshon Jeffery, WR: A tall WR that can get up and get the ball, the Browns opt to give Colt McCoy and Griffin another weapon here. They could make a run at Ryan Tannehill here if they pass on Griffin. Jeffery is not a burner by any means and his route running needs improvement, but his ball skills in the air and his wide catching radius will leave many teams enticed. He should be a great red zone target.
23) Detroit Lions - Zebrie Sanders, OT: The Lions, like many teams, need help on their offensive line and could also go with Peter Konz to place Dominic Raiola at center, but I think they'll try to milk another season out of their aging center while they address OT.
24) Pittsburgh Steelers - Dont'a Hightower, ILB: Dontari Poe could be another option if they look for a future NT, but the Steelers also need to inject some youth at ILB. Hightower has been a great leader on the Alabama defense and is another one of the great Alabama LBs. Also, Paul Soliai could be a free agent target to replace Casey Hampton if they overlook Poe.
25) Denver Broncos - Devon Still, DT: Denver already has solid players on the outside for the future with Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Von Miller. Still could bring a solid presence in the middle to team with Broderick Bunkley to help solidify the middle of the field and strengthen Denver's run defense. Kendall Wright could be an option, but I think Denver likes Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
26) Houston Texans - Kendall Wright, WR: They could also go for Dontari Poe here, but they should be satisfied with where their defense is at. Wright would finally give Houston a great complimentary WR for Andre Johnson.
27) New England Patriots (via Saints) - Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB: Another versatile front seven player the Patriots could add to their defense. The Patriots could look to use Mercilus as a DE in 4-3 sets and an OLB in the 3-4. Mercilus has a lot of talent and has piled on the sacks, but he has done so at the expense of leaving his assignments and leaving himself vulnerable for offenses to run by him. New England could hope to make him more disciplined in their system while taking advantage of his natural physical talent.
28) Green Bay Packers - Jared Crick, DE: The Packers could use an OLB opposite of Clay Matthews as well, but I think they go with a prospect they may have higher on the board. Crick can play a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE and though he doesn't great burst, he is relentless and has a variety of pass rushing moves at his disposal. He has very good hands and is tough to move off the line.
29) Baltimore Ravens - Peter Konz, C: The Ravens need a center to take over for the aging Matt Birk. Konz, the best center in the class, would give the Ravens one of the best interior lines in the NFL if the Ravens can resign Ben Grubbs.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Mohamed Sanu, WR: Braylon Edwards didn't performed as good as San Francisco hoped and is now gone. The 49ers could test the free agent market, but if unable to land a WR, Sanu would be a good fit. He doesn't have elite speed, but he's fast enough to be a vertical threat. He has very good hands, runs good routes, and is physical enough to get off the line.
*31) New England Patriots - Fletcher Cox, DE/DT: The second versatile front seven player New England selects, but Cox can thrive as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE, Cox has athleticism and superb strength. He has pass rushing moves, but he mostly depended on his bull rush while at Georgia. He is at a good weight for either position, but he's capable of adding more weight at the pro level. Adding him to play next to Mercilus would be a good way for New England to start patching up a poor defense, especially one that generates little pass rush.
*32) New York Giants - Cordy Glenn, OG: The Giants offensive line has been going through transition. Look the once dominant offensive line to try and speed up their recovery by drafting Glenn, a mauler of a guard. He's a big man with long arms, but he is quick for his size. He stands up well and can get to the second level quickly. He will help get the Giants running game back on track.
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Trade Down!
I think Miami’s best option is to trade down and draft Barron, though CB could be another option if the fins think Sean Smith can move to FS. I am assuming Miami will sign either Manning or Flynn as a free agent so drafting a QB in the first round will not be top priority.
Miami would be better off drating a QB late to groom. I am also hoping Miami will franchise soliai and trade him for multiple draft picks.
Miami won't franchise Soliai to trade simply because he would take up most, if not all, of their cap space.
Miami would have to resign players like Long and Starks to extensions first just to make room to franchise him even. It’d only make sense to franchise and trade Soliai if Miami wasn’t planning on making any moves in FA. We know that isn’t the case.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Pat Devlin
We already have a “QB to groom” in Pat Devlin, why another project?
because devlin sucks
someone like brock osweiler or dominique davis would be better
RGIII or flynn, whichever one helps us win
Leader of the "draft Jayron Hosley in the 2nd" bandwagon
Grand Cardinal of the first holy church of brandstater
by AnishB15 on Jan 30, 2012 8:08 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'll admit
I’ll admit that I know very little about Pat Devlin, other than he went to Deleware. But it seemed like at a point, a lot of people around here were pretty high on Devlin? Just judging on him serving on the practice squad, it’s a long shot of him being anything special. However, you don’t think he is even worth a sack of potatoes if say Miami brings in CP10 to QB coach and he is willing to work with him? IIRC, CP10 said in the future he’d like to coach. Well here’s his chance. Hire CP10 as our QB’s coach!! You can’t hate on someone who had a weak arm, thrown under the bus, but still won…and won comeback player of the year twice.
CP10 said he would like to coach... high school.
More of Moore in 2012!
Coples for our new 4-3!
'Phins phor Liphe!
Oh, well whatever the case may be, he’d make a great coach.
by Jared Maier on Jan 30, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think we are going to find
that our DBs are more than good enough once Coyle gets in there and starts teaching them the tricks of the trade that made his defenses average 17.77 INTs per season over a 9 year span. We have solid guys, he can turn them into playmakers, just like he has for 9 years. Did they have to spend 1st round picks on DBs every year in Cincinnati? I like the idea of a OLB if Coples is not available and provided we ALREADY have solved our QB problem. I think last night was a good sign that we do have a QB problem. Improve the QB and he will find a way to get it into the hands of all the playmakers that we already have. Do not think that Brandon Marshall will be the only one who is better because of a franchise QB… he will make the whole team better.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 7:21 AM EST up reply actions
how is last nights game a barometer of our QB problem?
The game was a sham, and there was absolutely no pass rush. You’ve got to be kidding with that statement. How about looking at it this way-Marshall had his most productive season as a Dolphins in terms of td catches with Moore throwing to him. You cannot take an all-star game in which NO ONE is really playing and say the QB is the only problem.
Where is Oronde Gadsden when we need him?
"Joe Montana was a product of the system. Dan Marino was the system"-Bill Walsh.
by FinzD54 on Jan 30, 2012 8:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Matter of fact, all our skill position enjoyed career years with Moore at QB…coincidence?? I guess Daboll really wasn’t that bad either.
Where is Oronde Gadsden when we need him?
"Joe Montana was a product of the system. Dan Marino was the system"-Bill Walsh.
by FinzD54 on Jan 30, 2012 8:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I actually liked Daboll...
I think he tried to get a little bit cute at times… We didn’t score enough, but part of that was on the QB as well….
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
OK...
How about if I point out that every single WR or TE on the AFC team aside from him had their QB in the Pro Bowl as well. You could make the case that every single WR on both sides of the ball has a franchise caliber QB with the exception of Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
i'll give you that-fair point
Where is Oronde Gadsden when we need him?
"Joe Montana was a product of the system. Dan Marino was the system"-Bill Walsh.
by FinzD54 on Jan 30, 2012 10:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
love your sig....
very true… I will also make the case that Brady is a product of the system while Peyton Manning is the system.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Some of that may be partially true but I cant agree.
I love Peyton Manning, I think that he is one of the greatest athletes to ever live and his impact to this game is immeasurable. One can make a viable argument for Peyton when talkign about the greatest players to ever play the game of football. However, to detract from how good Tom Brady is, in any way, is beyonf incredible to me. The Patriots are without a doubt one of the least talented teams we played this season, especially with the injuries that their club accumulated.
First off their offensive line problems were beyond disastrous. I have talked about this other posts. Their team was unable to maintain any continuity from week to week, a massive handicap for an offense. I talked about this recently with Kmb, lets briefly go through some of it. In week one in Miami, Dan Koppen goes out for the season, later in the same game (in the 4th Quarter Dan Connelly goes down forcing Ryan Wendell onto the field). Sebastian Vollmer didn’t play in the game at all and has been in and out of the lineup all season. Since Matt Light has gone down twice including an absence fro mthe second Dolphins game. Brian Waters has missed action and Logan Mankins went out in the second Dolphins game as well (his second injury of the year leading to a missed start against Buffalo). Lets use that Dolphins game for a second. Matt Light didnt play, so the Pats moved Nate Solder to Left Tackle and played Marcus Cannon at Right Tackle. In the game Logan Mankins gets hurt and is taken out forcing Donald Thomas into action. Dan Connelly then followed with an injury forcing Ryan Wendell onto the field at Center. Great players carry their team, despite having to buisness winning games. They couldn’t protect the Quarterback and they couldn’t run the ball, defensively they are fielding the 31st club in the league (another unit devastated by injuries) yet with a few adjusments Brady was able to carry his tem back to a critical victory. The Buffalo game was a very similar story.
They are a team that has obvious needs on defense and a multitude of them, a team that garnered no continuity on the Offensive Line all season, leading to severe problems in the running game and one of the highest number of QB hits allowed on any starting Quarterback over the 16 game season. They are also a club that has pressing needs at Wide receiver, fielding a unit thinner than the Dolphins receiver corps (which I believe is a need in Miami and a serious one).
The story of their offensive line is different now in the postseason (as they are much healthier) but the fact remains that a team with a critcal need at receiver, problems all over the place on defense and a line that maintained no semblance of consistancy (playwise or personnel which go together) went 13-3 in the regular season and is now playing in the Superbowl. Without Tom Brady the Pats would not be anywhere close to here. Not this season. To undermine or detract from how good Brady is, is beyond me.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
Their coach is the best COACH in the league...
As a personnel person he is not that great, but he does stockpile picks and gets a ton of them to make up for it. He does know how to put together a team. They have a really great system and they can make adjustments on offense and defense like no other team in the league. We were stupid to get rid of Donald Thomas, he was a great G for us. I am not saying the players they had were great… not at all. I am saying the system is such an amazing system they can throw Edelman in there at CB and do ok. They can throw a guy like Matt Cassell in there and do almost as good as Brady. Their drafting is very suspect, but they have an amazing ability to develop that talent into pieces that they can use, like no other team. Nothing that you said had anything to do with what Brady did… it was all Belicheat… say what you want about the guy… when the game is going on .. there is not a better coach…
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Actually...
The Bengals did use two first round picks on CBs. Reggie Nelson, their Safety, is a former first round pick of the Jaguars.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
they played all 9 seasons?
I will give that to you as I did not really do research there… but I am guessing that a good bit of the work he did was developing CBs in that he has seen such sustained success with a bunch of different players.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
No, just saying they did in fact go with first rounders.
I’m not taking anything away from Coyle because he has done a great job, but Nelson has been with Cincy for 2 years. Hall and Joseph, who formed a terrific duo for Cincy, were both there for 5 years. The Bengals also selected Madieu Williams (4 years), a very good FS, in the 2nd round. During that same draft, they drafted CB Keiwan Ratliff (4 years) in the 2nd round as well.
Cincy did their best when Joseph and Hall were pared together for 4 seasons, but Coyle had success as a unit before both of them when he had some solid players with Torry James, Deltha O’Neal, and Madieu Williams.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
I don't feel like Smith hits hard enough to be a FS.
Nor do I think he has the ball skills to be a ball hawk. I don’t understand the desire to move him there.
More of Moore in 2012!
Coples for our new 4-3!
'Phins phor Liphe!
He is a really good CB...
Why does everyone want to move him to FS??? If a guy can play CB, you don’t move him.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
I am no longer of the opinion that FS is a need.
Jimmy Wilson is the hard hitting ball hawk we want. We just need to draft a nickle corner to replace him.
also ...
FS is not really known as a hitter… for the most part … that would be your SS … Ronnie Lott was an anomaly for the most part …
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
by Jason Scott_90 on Jan 30, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
You do need your FS to be a good tackler at least...
But Sean Smith ranks 9th among CBs for missed tackles with 9.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Stupid random bold font...
Can;t get it to go away.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
ok i have to get this off my chest...
even if manning is afordable and even if he is healthy again ans even if he has another 3 awesome seasons in him, i dont want him with the phins. i want our own qb. manning has his legacy with the colts and even if he wins a super bowl here he will aleays be the indy qb that ended his career in miani… thx but no!!
by Realism on Jan 30, 2012 8:47 AM EST via Android app reply actions
i rather take a qb and a super bowl then care about his own personal legacy...while having time to groom his back up and our future own franchise qb
by tonyy on Jan 30, 2012 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
agreed!
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Actually...
I agree with Realism. For a few reasons.
1. Not only for the reason of him being the Indy franchise QB that landed in Miami for a short stop to bring a championship. But also because he turns out to be anther stopgap. And if the next draft QB is not the answer, we are lost again once he retires.
2. Any success we enjoy will be completely attributed to him and not the coaching staff. PhilPhin needs his own QB to establish this a his team, his success, his story. Manning would make Ireland look like a genius, PhilPhin look like a accessory.
3. Everyone only sees exceptional Manning. Who knows what condition he is really in physically or how many hits he can take before he goes down for good. Then, we are stuck with his cap hit, no QB ready to step in to be our future, and no free agent moves other than our now damaged QB.
4. You force Coach PhilPhin to contend with any initial success Peyton has. Once he is no longer our primary QB, any drop off in success will reflect on PhilPhin negatively.
by PhinNomenol! on Jan 30, 2012 12:58 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
How is it that even when my post has nothing to do with Manning going to Miami...
It still turns into that?
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Richars Griffin III? lol
Nice mock, would love to add Melvin Ingram to our defense.
by FinsDBess15 on Jan 30, 2012 10:02 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I do think RGIII would be the QB of the future of the Phins....
If we are willing to trade the Rams for that 2nd Overall… if not the Cleveland Browns will do what they do best and destroy yet another quarterback lol… Go Tim Couch!
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Cleveland
I just don’t see them picking RGIII. It may be wishful thinking, but I don’t see it. They know they have to get more offensive weapons and with 2 1st round picks, they can do that. Get Richardson and Jeffery/Wright and they are on their way. With those weapons, Colt should improve and if he doesn’t, they take Barkley next year.
i've been waiting for this moment all my life...but it's not quite right.
true, they will have 3 good choices between barkley jones and wilson
RGIII or flynn, whichever one helps us win
Leader of the "draft Jayron Hosley in the 2nd" bandwagon
Grand Cardinal of the first holy church of brandstater
by AnishB15 on Jan 30, 2012 11:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
As much as Blackmon would be a sexy pick in the unlikely event he falls to us,
I don’t think it would be a responsible pick. It would be like spending your rent money on an awesome leather jacket. There are bigger holes to fill with that pick.
I believe Ryan Tannehill goes in the first round....
A woman is an occasional pleasure but a cigar is always a smoke.
- Groucho Marx
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. -H.L. Mencken.
"Never miss an opportunity to make others happy, even if you have to leave them alone in order to do it."
"The world is divided into two kinds of people: those who have tattoos, and those who are afraid of people with tattoos."
Only if Cleveland selects him or a team trades back into the first...
But I’m not including trades in the mocks.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
So you don't think Miami would at their spot if Cleveland passes?
Or Washington?
A woman is an occasional pleasure but a cigar is always a smoke.
- Groucho Marx
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. -H.L. Mencken.
"Never miss an opportunity to make others happy, even if you have to leave them alone in order to do it."
"The world is divided into two kinds of people: those who have tattoos, and those who are afraid of people with tattoos."
It's possible.
But if Cleveland selects Griffin, I think it’s also very possible the Dolphins or Redskins trade up, but that it is for the first pick of the second round.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Ah.. I see....
A woman is an occasional pleasure but a cigar is always a smoke.
- Groucho Marx
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. -H.L. Mencken.
"Never miss an opportunity to make others happy, even if you have to leave them alone in order to do it."
"The world is divided into two kinds of people: those who have tattoos, and those who are afraid of people with tattoos."
Hey Finhead, again good mock. Good read.
However I disagree. In your mock you aren’t predicting any trades (and I completely understand the danger in doing so), however I believe Luck and Griffin are going 1 and 2, Griffin via trade. St. Louis is going to hold that pick as long as possible and pitch every club who may move up against each other. That could be as many teams as Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Seattle (the most unlikely of the group), and possibly even Jacksonville. If they are not able to attain as much value as they like, they have a viable fall back options in Matt Kalil and Justin Blackmon (as well as other potential candidates). This is extremly unlikely though.
if Luck and Griffin both go, those clubs are in a jam (whichever ones lost in moving up), especially Cleveland if they don’t. Quarterback is such a neccesity that I see Tannehill going soon after (somewhere around 7-15 again possibly via trade). Once that happens clubs may begin to get nervous. Cleveland is the scary team. I don’t really like their place at 4. 4 always seems to be an awkward pick. if Griffin goes two (but not to them) and Blackmon goes 3, they are in a real jam. If they can’t find a suitor to trade down (which is again a possibility) and made the decision not to overbid to trade up to 2, they will most likely have a Quarterback who they are very high on (Tannehill or otherwise), if they got caught at 4 they might bite as the risk is less with the current CBA, even considering the high guarantees.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
I still don't see Tannehill going that high.
QBs in FA will change the way the teams will go after QBs in the draft. If Washington signed Manning and/or Miami signed Flynn or Manning, that would change things drastically. Let’s say Washington signed Manning and Miami signed Flynn. Where’s the demand for STL to trade down? There isn’t one unless Seattle is willing to pay a ransom. Cleveland can sit back. Then you still have other QBs like Orton that may change the dynamics. If Washington signs him, are they all in for RG3? If Miami signs Flynn and then Washington trades up for RG3, Cleveland could relax fairly easily and could probably snatch Tannehill pretty easily in the late first or early second.
It’s fun to do these, but this is even more guesswork now than it’ll be come early April when FA calms down. At least some of the gaps will be filled then. So while it seems likely RG3 will go #2 now, it may not seem that way come late March or early April.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
I understand how Free Agency will drastically affect how teams approach the draft.
However, again the risk is greater in Free Agency from a financial standpoint than it is in the draft. In Free Agency there are really two great question marks. The first is obviously Peyton Manning. Peyton though is an extremely rare commodity in Free Agency. There are 3 to 4 clubs in the NFL who are not in the discussion of taking a first round Quarterback who could very possibly allocate cap room to give their team a chance to win a Superbowl right now. The Jets are too obvious. They have some wiggle room because the overhaul done to their roster was done primarily within the three week span prior to the lockout, so they freed themselves from penalties which reduces the impact of the restructired contracts of David Harris and Antonio Cromartie. Say Peyton Manning signs with the Jets. That leaves Matt Flynn as the other real possibility for a club to invest in as a Franchise Quarterback. He can only sign with one club and may not get the type of longterm deal that handcuffs a team like Manning will. So many people compare his situation to Kevin Kolb but they are different. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick who had much more value prior to coming to the NFL. He has comparatively substantial playing experience. 5 games started in 2010 including two relief efforts and two starts in 2009 including another relief effort. So teams had more angles to work with. He had been forced to step in during games and had a significant number of starts spread out across multiple years. Matt Flynn had way more concerns coming into the NFL and has two career starts. The other thing to remember is that Kevin Kolb was traded to the Cardinals, meaning that they were really commited, not only because of the picks they had given (and Rogers-Cromartie) but because of his current contract (which was much bigger than Flynn’s over $1.07 million annually to less than $600,000). So they were more susceptible to something like a holdout. He had more leverage. If Matt Flynn signs a say $5-7 million dollar deal annually that team isn’t handicapped. So there are other factors to consider.
As for Orton, great point. A player like Kyle Orton as well as Jason Campbell will deter a teams aggression if signed in a similar way as Flynn will if he signs a smaller deal.
The last issue you raise is Cleveland and we are going to disagree. No matter what happens Cleveland is in a tight spot. If they want Tannehill they have to make a move. Even if Miami were to sign Flynn to a big mutli-year deal and Manning signed in say Washington, Tannehill will still probably go in the first round. If the Browns sit back and he goes right through Jacksonville, Seattle e.t.c. he will be very valuable late in the first round because he will go as soon as the second round hits. Clubs like KC and Buffalo are suddenly in the mix because they aren’t risking much by trading back into the 20’s and drafting an excellent backup Quarterback, so Cleveland in their dream scenario isn’t out of the woods.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
The other piece is RG3. Your point was that the Browns are safe at 4 in that scenario because RG3 will fall.
Even in that scenario which is an unlikely one RG3 will still probably not fall. The position is too important and the player is too good. Teams that drafted Quarterbacks in the first round are not dealing with huge contracts, Gabberts deal is all guaranteed but it is only worth $12 Million dollars over 4 years, 3 Million in base slary annually. They aren’t locked to him, and could keep him and sit him. If they decide to pull the plug that is an easy sell in a trade. So there are lots of factors. Its good stuff.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
Scratch one part. The trade is still a hard sell. The tradee would forfeit all leverage in that scenario.
However if Gene Smith is open minded enough he could still sit him. 3 Miilion is a reasonable price for a backup and if they cut him they take a hit but not a devastating one.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
I don't believe the Jaguars are a big threat to take RG3. That is an unlikely move.
I don’t think the Browns feel threatened by the prospect of Jacksonville trading up either. It’s not a terrible financial impact for Jacksonville, but the price is high to swing a deal and the Jags will probably be happy to see if Gabbertt succeeds and if he doesn’t, they’ll be in terrific place for a pretty solid trio of QBs next year.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Free agency QBs.
Free agency QBs will still be a risk, especially with Flynn, but that doesn’t mean they won’t affect the draft. Miami isn’t going to sign Flynn and then trade up for RG3. Washington won’t do the same if they take Manning. Are they gambles? Yes, they are a bit of a gamble. The teams aren’t going to go high price on the same position twice though. For the Jets, it’s not about the restructured deals (they would cost the same in 2012 regardless if they redid the deals in February of 2011 or December of 2011), but their highest priced players that would make sense for restructuring are already playing under large bonuses that offer minimal relief. You can’t restucture cap space that has already been allotted by bonus money. The Jets are over the cap and simply will have to try and let other holes go unplugged if they want Manning. It’s a great rumor about Peyton to NYJ for several reasons, but it is very unlikely.
As for Cleveland, I say they can rest back because they already have a late first round pick to get Tannehill with if they really want to, but may pick significantly higher than any other team looking for a QB if Washington and Miami settle their QB needs after their first round selections. Both the Seahawks and Bills are still higher in the draft and a move down to the 20s would require a trading partner willing to gamble enough to move back. Plus, the Browns already own the 22nd pick in the draft, so both teams would have limited windows to make a move anyways. It takes two teams to make a deal and unless they Seahawks or Bills want to overpay, which the Bills won’t do because of their contract with Fitzpatrick, Cleveland is sitting pretty. Seattle could surprise and take Tannehill at #12, but I believe it is unlikely they will do so.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
No, I understand that the restructured deals themselves didn't positively affect the cap for the Jets
They negatively affected the cap for the Jets, hence the teams obliagtion to trim the roster in certain areas in 2011. My impression was (and feel free to correct me if I am wrong) is that because so many of their player cuts came in the three week span prior to the lockout that the Dead money against the cap for future signing bonus payments (Trevor Pryce e.t.c.) was relieved, at least against the cap. I cannot remember where I read that it was to be relieved.
Anyhow apart from my ignorance, yes the Jets are interesting for many reasons. But we can save that for another time.
Cleveland does have a later 1st round pick (22 from the Falcons in the Julio Jones deal) which makes their situation easier (and gorgeous if RG3 falls to 4) but the fact remains that Tannehill is extremely unlikely to fall out of the first round.
Again we are back to Griffin. As of now it is conceivable that a situation could emerge that pushes RG3 out of the top 2, however it remains very unlikely and far from a given even in the scenario you mentioned IMO. Its an interesting debate though.
2008 AFC EAST Champions.
You are right about NYJ's cap obligations
Generally, teams spread the liability of cap hits over 2 years by cutting players after June 1st. Anything before that date, the cap liability is accelerated to the current league year. With the lockout, the dates were adjusted and teams were given a window to release players and have it accelerated to the current year. The Jets did do that and that bonus money won’t be applied to the 2013 cap. They’re just in a bind with all the contracts they have now with high bonus money and if they used the $3 million exception last year, that will also have a negative affect (around $500k I believe) on this years cap and some in future years.
I do think there is a chance Tannehill goes in the first round, but right now I think the odds are close to 50/50. Depending on how teams fill out their QBs in the first round and in FA will help determine that. I think the most likely scenario is a team like Miami or Washington swings a deal for the first pick in the second round on day two to select Tannehill since both teams will have plenty of time to negotiate with Indy. It’s possible teams can trade back into the first, but I’m not doing trades in the mock, and there is also a chance Cleveland takes him at 22. Unfortunately, I have them slotted to take RG3 so there would be no need for that. Personally, I think Cleveland would also make out well if they get Blackmon at #4 and Tannehill at 22. Maybe they can get Blackmon and Lamar Miller in the first and Tannehill in the early 2nd. Cleveland may end up being the key to the draft with their needs and ammunition.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
If we get Manning I can see us trading down and drafing Tannehill
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.
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