Statistics and Peyton Manning

by Saxonthebeach on Jan 24, 2012 6:17 PM EST

I just read a very interesting article from September of last year about what, statistically, Peyton Manning brings to a team. If you're interested in details about the statistics, click on the link, but the bottom line is that a Peyton-led passing game scores 9.1 points more per game than the average NFL passing game. This past season, our passing game was ranked 23rd, but for my feeble math mind's sake, let's assume that we were ranked 15th. Adding 9.1 points per game gives us the following:

Week 1: Lose to Patriots 38-33
Week 2: Lose to Texans 23-22
Week 3: Beat Browns 25-17
Week 4: Lose to Chargers 26-25
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: Lose to Jets 24-15
Week 7: Beat Broncos 24-18
Week 8: Beat Giants 26-20

So, after 8 weeks, instead of being 0-7, we'd be 3-4. Obviously better, but at this point in the season people would probably be calling for Ireland's/Peyton's head given the expectations he'd bring. But, the season continues...

Week 9: Beat Chiefs 40-3
Week 10: Beat Redskins 29-9
Week 11: Beat Bills 44-8
Week 12: Beat Cowboys 28-20
Week 13: Beat Raiders 45-14
Week 14: Lose to Eagles 26-19
Week 15: Beat Bills 39-23
Week 16: Beat Patriots 33-27
Week 17: Beat Jets 28-17

That would give us a record of 11-5. Patriots would still win the division and get the #1 seed (losing to us in Week 16 makes them 12-4). Steelers would get the #5 seed at 12-4. We'd have gotten a #6 seed and a trip to Houston in the wild card round.

So, what do we take from this little experiment? On the one hand, I'd take 11-5 and in the playoffs over 6-10 any day. However, we should be careful to think that Peyton is the difference between 6-10 and Super Bowl champions. Statistically, adding Manning to our team this year would get us the same number of wins as when Pennington was our QB.

All in all, am I for us signing Peyton? Absolutely - he gives us the best chance to win now while we develop either Matt Moore or a rookie from this or next year's draft. But am I expecting that he can return us to glory? Not necessarily. However, I am expecting that he'll return us to the playoffs. Given what we've been through in the last decade or so, that's certainly good enough for me.

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Well

isn’t making the playoffs being a Superbowl Contender? Look at the Giants, they are a 9-7 team in the superbowl. That’s the point about making the playoffs, you are playing for a chance to go to the Superbowl.

by phinhead on Jan 24, 2012 6:21 PM EST reply actions

Peyton will not happen IMO...

he will only want to go to a team that will be in Superbowl contention. Even though, we could be very good with him, I think he will want a team that was already good without him. I see likely spots as the 49ers and the Jets. Or the Colts may not release him because they have the ability to move when that $28mil bonus is due. RGIII is the best option for our future anyway. Lets just trade up for him, i dont really care what it takes…

In Pat we Trust
"Sorry if everyone thought we were going to go 82-0" - Dwyane Wade
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

by #1Heatfan on Jan 24, 2012 6:25 PM EST reply actions

The jets can't afford Peyton

and their team is in turmoil, I doubt he’d want to go there. And, why would the 49ers want to change anything? Alex Smith ~~almost~~ would have took them to the superbowl had it not been for a couple bad plays by Williams on special teams.

GO PHINS !!!
"Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm" - Steven Wright
Looking forward to crushing the jets playoff hopes 1-1-12

by boca_phin_fan on Jan 25, 2012 8:04 AM EST up reply actions

yea ive been saying i doubt the Jets, but I still think they are more likely to sign him than us

as for the 49ers, they were great with a subpar Alex Smith at QB. Why wouldnt they take the chance on making that position a strength?

In Pat we Trust
"Sorry if everyone thought we were going to go 82-0" - Dwyane Wade
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

by #1Heatfan on Jan 25, 2012 8:10 AM EST up reply actions

IMO the 49ers

would have made the superbowl if they would have converted 3rd downs at meaningful times during the game. Yes Williams made terrible game changing errors, but fault their offense for making him feel that he had to take the ball and make something happend becuase their offense was terrible.

a wise man once said..."My cats breath smells like cat food"
My love for THE MIAMI DOLPHINS is unconditional...period!
Win for pride, Win for us fans!
God I hope we can knock the Jets out of the playoffs, I couldn't imagine despising a team and fan base more.

Go Dolphins!

by Phinphinatic on Jan 25, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

This is true...

I’m admittedly an Alex Smith fan, but he did really didn’t do his offense a lot of favors in that game vs. the Giants. Granted it was poor weather conditions AND it is the Giants front 4 he has to contend with, but I expected a better outing from him. Although; he didn’t make the crippling mistakes that seem to plague the Dolphins for the past ohh.. 12 years (minus Pennington), but unfortunately for the 49ers, this Williams kid made up for that.

Funny side note: Who woulda thought that Ted Ginn (or the absence thereof) would mean the difference between the 49ers being in the Superbowl or not. Lol.

by Bill Moody on Jan 25, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

yup... the only time fans said "I wish we had Ted Ginn"

In Pat we Trust
"Sorry if everyone thought we were going to go 82-0" - Dwyane Wade
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

by #1Heatfan on Jan 25, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

We'd have to build a dome for Peyton.

Or guarantee all road games are climate controlled and wind free. Maybe an umbrella hat affixed to his helmet for that Miami sun.

and some iced tea….

I never got a prize for doing what was expected of me.

by Tunaflipper on Jan 24, 2012 8:45 PM EST reply actions

I like iced tea!

"Theyas no fawking qwatahback!"-Anonymous Patriots fan at seeing the Wildcat formation for the first time.

by texascowpunk on Jan 24, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, he was better on Law and Order than he was as a rapper IMO

Can we just wheel Shula onto the field at the start of ever game being pushed by one of the Miami Cheerleaders? Talk about mixing fear and distraction...

by Hollywood Dolfan on Jan 24, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know about that. He is a terrible actor but I really liked Body Count when I saw them live back in the day.

"Theyas no fawking qwatahback!"-Anonymous Patriots fan at seeing the Wildcat formation for the first time.

by texascowpunk on Jan 25, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Some one teach me how to use the sarcasm box...I know it when I see it but how do I employ the power of sarcasm via the interwebs...

Can we just wheel Shula onto the field at the start of ever game being pushed by one of the Miami Cheerleaders? Talk about mixing fear and distraction...

by Hollywood Dolfan on Jan 27, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions

Place one of these @ right before what you want to highlight and directly after. Also it must be in the body of the comment-

here!

"Theyas no fawking qwatahback!"-Anonymous Patriots fan at seeing the Wildcat formation for the first time.

by texascowpunk on Jan 28, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

I can't agree with you on this one,

and I will give you only one reason out of a few that I can think of that will though your statistics way off. Turnovers. How less we will have will change the amount of chances the other offense has to create points.

by 2nd Gen Phin Fan on Jan 25, 2012 12:23 AM EST reply actions

sorry forgot to say that I would still sign Manning, he does make teams better.

by 2nd Gen Phin Fan on Jan 25, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

We wouldn't have struggled as much in the red zone...hard to tell that with stats

Look at that first Jets game, that 99 yard Revis TD? Probably wouldn’t have happened.

It’s all “what if” anyway. Nice to debate since we have nothing else going on in Dolphin-world until FA…but let’s see if they actually go after Manning. First he has to leave the Colts and clear medical anyway.

As much as I want him I’m a bit skeptical we’ll get him. That seems to be how it goes for the Dolphins.

by hbkDolphins on Jan 25, 2012 1:09 AM EST reply actions

And those early Jets turnovers where we settled for FG's

by hbkDolphins on Jan 25, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Or Henne getting picked off by the Pat's that cost us that first game...why cause and elite quarterback turns turnovers into touchdowns

*Disclaimer, I am not in the PM to Miami bandwagon, just assisting in the statistical mock up being highly flawed…

Can we just wheel Shula onto the field at the start of ever game being pushed by one of the Miami Cheerleaders? Talk about mixing fear and distraction...

by Hollywood Dolfan on Jan 25, 2012 1:31 AM EST up reply actions

Manning can not go to another team and be as good as he Was for the colts

It took him years to develop chemistry with the WR;s and O-linemen

LETS GO HEAT!!!!!!!
Joel Anthony is the man
do YOU believe in TEBOW

by sparker2513 on Jan 25, 2012 5:28 AM EST reply actions

Really?

Being from Indiana, I know plenty about the Colts. Remember the Colts bringing in new receivers when other receivers would go down injured? Plug and play. Peyton will get on the same page with new receivers because he’s super competitive and knows how to break down film. He is as good as they come in making in-game adjustments with his offense. He’s an OC on the field. I think you’re way off base.

Official member of "The Luck Fleet"
Nobody hurt a tackler like Zonk did.

by rintintinsoldier on Jan 25, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

All i know is that the Colts

are a playoff team with peyton manning and 2-14 without. That means something. Peyotn Manning brings alot more to the QB position than his arm. It is his brain, timing, and leadership that create wins. Peyton would instantly put us as a title contender.

Go Dolphins!

by Phinphinatic on Jan 25, 2012 11:19 AM EST reply actions

I would never sign Peyton

3 procedures on his neck in the past couple years! Someone else can take him, one bad hit and he’s done. I have my doubts as well in his ability to come back to the same form he was at before.