How Important is an Elite QB?
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST
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PrintI wanted to build on TheKramer's post about not needing an elite QB in order to make it to and win the Superbowl.
Time has shown that you need at least one or the other in the top 5 (or close to it), great defense, great offense or a combination of both. Yet, there is so much more that goes into winning Superbowls. Look at the coaches of these past 5 winners: Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Bill Cower, Tom Coughlin, and Tony Dungy. Not too shabby.
If you look at the past 5 Superbowl winners, the only thing consistent is the inconsistency. One year it’s a team with great defense, the next it’s an explosive offensive team.
Potential Superbowl winners:
2012-? Could it be:
:NE (31st ranked defense) (2nd ranked offense)
: BAL (3rd ranked defense) (15th ranked offense)
: SF (4th ranked defense) (26th ranked offense)
: NYG (27th ranked defense) (8th ranked offense)
What a coincidence! The remaining teams in the 2012 playoffs are split with 2 offensive and 2 defensive teams. Let's see how the last 5 winners panned out:
Superbowl winners 2007-2011:
2011- GB (5th ranked defense) (9th ranked offense)---------Winner: Defense--Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
2010- NO (25th ranked defense) (1st ranked offense)-------Winner: Offense---Quarterback: Drew Brees
2009- PITT (1st ranked defense) (22nd ranked offense)----Winner: Defense---Quarterback: Big Ben
2008- NYG (7th ranked defense) (16th ranked offense)-----Winner: Defense---Quarterback: Eli Manning
2007- INDI (21st ranked defense) (3rd ranked offense)-----Winner: Offense---Quarterback: Peyton Manning
The Outcome:
Just as I suspected, 2 offensive teams, 2 defensive teams and one that combined both (GB).
One could argue that from this small sample of the last 5 Superbowl winners, that each offense was led by an elite quarterback and most people would not disagree. Yet, 3 out of 5 of these past winners had top 7 defenses and with the exception of last year's Green Bay team (who were in the top 10 in both categories), they had the 16th (NYG) and 22nd (PITT) ranked offenses.
Point being, times aren't changing as much as one might think. The media calls this a "pass happy" league, but there’s not much to back those claims up, other than a few quarterbacks who have had incredible seasons. Brees, Brady, and Rodgers aside, this is still a league that is wildly inconsistent. You cannot just favor one aspect and say it’s going to win you a championship. It's about highlighting your strengths as a team and exposing other teams' weaknesses, which is also known as GOOD COACHING.
On to the Dolphins:
Have we had good coaching in the past decade? Have we even had an average QB? The revolving door at both of these crucial positions is all the proof I need to answer no to both of these questions. The best QB for us in the past decade was Pennington. What happened that year? That's right, we won the division. It doesn't matter how people justify that unlikely division championship, we still won it courtesy of Pennington's smart play at QB.
The 2011-2012 Miami Dolphins have more talent than that Pennington led squad and we couldn't win a game until week 8. Why? I mean we had the same head coach. Is it because the wildcat ran it's course? Sparano forgot how to coach? Did Daboll take a while to figure out how to use his offensive weapons? The lockout? All of these? Or did we just need a slightly above average QB to make all of our problems go away?
My opinion (if you haven't figured it out by now) is that an elite QB is the most important piece to a winning franchise. A Superbowl winning team doesn't always have a top 10 offense, but they will almost always have an above average/ elite quarterback.
The Equation:
The reason this works out is because a (great defense + a smart QB = Playoffs and occasionally a Superbowl). While the smart QB may not light it up, they will not lose the game for you with careless mistakes (Pennington) and if teams can't score on your defense, then that game manager who doesn't make many mistakes is sufficient. The following equation is greater than or equal to the previous: (bad/average defense + an elite QB = Superbowl). A great quarterback can make up for a bad defense by putting up tons of points (Tom Brady). Yet, 3 teams in the top 5 offenses have already been eliminated (DET, NO, GB). Hmmmm.
So what do you guys think? Is an elite QB that important or is a great defense it's equal?
Recs are greatly appreciated. Thanks for reading.
This fanpost was written by one of The Phinsider's registered users.
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I agree but to only have the luxury of one... Hmmm.
An average QB like Moore can lead our offense to 20 points a game pretty easily and if you can’t score on us- then which becomes more valuable?
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
if that defense doesn't show your gonna want that elite QB
of course that can be flipped. as we saw when packers offense didn’t show up against the giants, and there defense couldn’t do anything.
Exactly.
Not only did this happen to GB. DET, GB, and NO were 3 of the top 5 offenses (specifically because of their elite QB’s) and they have been eliminated already…
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Not that those losses rest squarely on the shoulders of their QB's.
But their defenses couldn’t stop anything!!!!
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
And that is why the Texens were my pick to go to the superbowl
until Shauab got hurt they had both. Balance, yin,yang. lol
lol that balance is definitely key, but not always necessary.
Last years Superbowl champions GB were top 10 in both categories, so that theory definitely has some credibility.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
look at every dynasty
they always have both
lombardis packers
Shulas dolphins
The steel curtain
Bill walsh’s Niners
Jimmy Johnsons cowboys
even the bills from the ninties
and finnally…..sigh….belicheaks patriots
every single one top ten in both
A modern Dolphins dynasty would be amazing but,
Let’s start with getting back into the playoffs.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
It could happen
we have a good defense, playmakers on offense all we need is the piece to hold it all together, the lynchpin, the QB.
I'm on board!
Ross and Ireland better find a way to get Luck or RG3!
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the Niners and tell me Alex Smith isn't playing Pennington-esque
He is playing smart and safe. Yes he’s having a great year but truth is he still isn’t a top 10 QB in the league. Truth is he is playing smart and limiting turnovers (CP10 was great at this) and focusing on why the Niners are truly in the NFC Championship game (their D).
Defense is still VASTLY important but having an ELITE QB is still JUST as important. That is why with the young D the Dolphins have now and all the weapons we have on our roster NOW, taking a chance to get that Franchise QB is a no-brainer.
I'm ALL- IN. Do whatever it takes to get Andrew Luck or RGIII to Miami in 2012.
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
Tom Brandstater- more TD's than completions. Last person to tell him that's not possible, well, nobody has seen him since.
B, hopefully Ross views this the same way...
I think he will do whatever it takes. The timing feels right. The Henne experiment is over and Moore is not a franchise QB. The rest of this team’s weaknesses are not as significant as drafting a potentially elite QB.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 16, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I like Moore, and hope he gets a legitimate starting job Week 1
But Henne is gone and if we don’t find another replacement at QB to fill in and put all our eggs in the Matt Moore basket it is not start. And no, a 5th round flyer on a QB does NOT count as a legitimate QB competition.
I'm ALL- IN. Do whatever it takes to get Andrew Luck or RGIII to Miami in 2012.
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
Tom Brandstater- more TD's than completions. Last person to tell him that's not possible, well, nobody has seen him since.
Exactly...
Our Defense played stout there at the end.. had we started out the season that way we’d probably have been talking playoffs.. Cause when looking at stats, I know they dont tell the whole story but are always used as a reference, Alex Smith and eMineM (or as CP10 would put it- The real slim shady.. lol) were pretty close…
Matt Moore 210comp 347att 60.5% 2,497yrds 7.2 avg 16TD 9INT 38+20yrds 6+40yrds 87.1
Alex Smith 273comp 445att 61.3% 3,144yrds 7.1avg 17TD 5INT 41+20yrds 6+40yrds 90.7
Smith did take care of the ball better- with half as many fumbles (14 vs 7), but of Moore’s Ints, 4 were in the first 4 games(or 4 ints in 2 games depending on how you look at it… effing Jets) .. But MM had a better avg, would have thrown more TDs, had he played the whole season, He had 3 games with 3 TDs- something henne couldnt even do in the preseason.. while Smith only had 1..
So yeah, D is KEY..
Well said
Rec’d
Miami's Superstars: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Jake Long, Mike Pouncey, Karlos Dansby, Cameron Wake, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith (just wait), Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss, Jose Theodore, and Chris Versteeg. :)
Forget Offense/Defense ranks... All anyone has to do is look at the list of the QB's
2011- Aaron Rodgers
2010- Drew Brees
2009- Big Ben
2008- Eli Manning
2007- Peyton Manning
Yah, I’m pretty sure the Fins could win with any one of those guys…
can we ask for both?
I want 2 things.. an
1. elite QB
2. A front 7 that can bring the pain. It would start with a NT that could shut down the run and possibly one more guy that can get after the QB at OLB accross from Wake.
Forget FS, or anything else really. A good QB will make mediocre TEs and WRs look really good. I would say RT, but I am still believing that John Jerry can fill that role.
We had [Brady] down… but we didn’t kick him. We helped him up and gave him a PowerPuff Girls band-aid for his knee. What exactly did you expect would happen when we did that?
As a Pats fan, I'd say: Intelligent but avg. QB with an elite defense
The defense is what got the Pats to the promised land in Brady’s early years. The 2004 team was probably the best balanced. Pass, Run, and defense.
Since 2006, we’ve had an elite QB, and an average defense, and 0 rings.
We’ll see how this year turns out.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Belichick is looking for a new name for his boat: VI Rings sounds pretty good.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jan 16, 2012 5:46 PM EST reply actions
The caveat is that the league rules have made it easier on the offense and harder on the defense.
Hence the massive yards and completions we’re seeing.
You probably need an above average QB to keep pace, because when an elite offense meets an elite defense, the rules favor the offense.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Belichick is looking for a new name for his boat: VI Rings sounds pretty good.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jan 16, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Lets work backwards.....
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, John Elway, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Steve Young. Thats 15 of the last seventeen Super Bowls won by a QB that was elite at the time he won it. I’d say it’s pretty friggin important…..(And you can keep going all the way back to the inception of the Super Bowl, but I got lazy)….
The only reason I watch Jets games is to see if TODAY is the day Rex Ryan's fat heart gives out on him...
by Brantner78 on Jan 16, 2012 6:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Branter stop posting while Im writting,know your making me feel different about my own thoughts,like Alpha does, but not wierd like him.LOL
I would not call Eli and Big Ben elite , but I would say they are very good. Kurt Warner was elite for 2 years when he had greatness around him, but he did shine when it was his time. Johnson and Dilfer were anything but elite. Hey Jimmy Mac won his with D also, but he had Sweetness 2 very very Wr’s a great D and the FRIDGE!!!
TO ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE; ONE MUST STUDY,TO ACQUIRE WISDOM ONE MUST OBSERVE !!
YOU ARE NOT BORN A WINNER, YOU ARE NOT BORN A LOSER, YOU ARE WHAT YOU MAKE YOURSELF BECOME !!
WHEN TEXASCOWPUNK TAKES THE PICTURE I WILL HAVE AN AVATAR!!! OIL BABY!!!
stop it now phinaphana!!!lol
TO ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE; ONE MUST STUDY,TO ACQUIRE WISDOM ONE MUST OBSERVE !!
YOU ARE NOT BORN A WINNER, YOU ARE NOT BORN A LOSER, YOU ARE WHAT YOU MAKE YOURSELF BECOME !!
WHEN TEXASCOWPUNK TAKES THE PICTURE I WILL HAVE AN AVATAR!!! OIL BABY!!!
Both are top 10 and close to top 5
I would not call Eli and Big Ben elite
I would call Eli Elite if for no other reason than 2007. lol
I disagree about Eli.....
I think he is absolutely an elite QB, and a stone cold killer in the fourth quarter…..
The only reason I watch Jets games is to see if TODAY is the day Rex Ryan's fat heart gives out on him...
That's a fact Jack!
"Theyas no fawking qwatahback!"-Anonymous Patriots fan at seeing the Wildcat formation for the first time.
by texascowpunk on Jan 17, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
It is very important Brantner
A top 10 offense isn’t necessarily going to take you to the Superbowl, but an elite QB can be on a team with a bottom 10 offense and win it all. According to you, 15/17 of these QB’s are elite (which I agree with). That’s 88%. If I was still in my Statistics class, we’d say we are 88% confident that having an elite QB is imperative for winning a Superbowl and that would be more than enough to believe it is absolutely necessary.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 17, 2012 7:39 AM EST up reply actions
an elite QB can be on a team with a bottom 10 offense and win it all
Has this ever happened? Not in the past 30 years, that much I can guarantee you. The only teams to win it all with bottom 10 offenses (in the past 30 years), had top 10 defenses, and QBs who weren’t elite.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Although they were technically the 11th worst offense in yards.
And 13th worst in pts allowed, so they technically don’t fit your argument. Not to mention they also had the number 1 ranked D in points and yards.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
Amego wood you say that Flacco is a top 10 QB.?
wopper "the king" computer
We often look rite past the positive's cuz the negative's-r-so hard they dominate!
by wild zion beaver on Jan 21, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Technically you're right but,
I said a bottom 10 offense and they were 22nd… Are you really trying to prove me wrong because they were a bottom 11 offense?
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 22, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
But you failed to mention they also had a number 1 defense.
Without that defense, they don’t win the Super Bowl. That I can guarantee you.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
I did mention that...
You’re missing the point… I said that an elite QB is almost always needed to win a Superbowl, but this elite QB can be part of a bottom 10 offense. If you read my post you’d see that I said it is absolutely necessary to have a top 10 defense or a top 10 offense in order to win a Superbowl.
Where is your argument? I’m not even sure…
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 25, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Though 2 of the 4 lacked the big defensive stats during the course of the season
when the playoffs started, G-men and Pack kicked it up a notch, meaning late season turn arounds. Can’t forget the Saints defense limiting Peyton, the G-men holding Brady at 17 pts, and Matthews wreaking havoc on the steelers. QB play was superb by SB winners but defense dictated the outcome.
Get the best man to clear every hurdle that stand in the Dolphins way, go RG3.
RG3, the new Transformer of the future.
I would take the Elite D, If I have a soild QB that can get me 21-24 points a game that is less than a TD a quarter, I will ride with that
Elite D will give up 12-17 points a game. I would not call Big Ben Elite, so I think you can win with out a elite QB. Eli is not either in my book or Phill Simms, Brad Johnson, Doug Williams. There are plenty of teams that have won both ways. I am old school a knock out D you cant beat. Shut down corners and LB the will drop the pain. sounds great to me.Then you take the Rams the years they were up there and they were all Offense, so you have to pick your poison. Good teams have both, and were not far from that. We are close yet so far away
TO ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE; ONE MUST STUDY,TO ACQUIRE WISDOM ONE MUST OBSERVE !!
YOU ARE NOT BORN A WINNER, YOU ARE NOT BORN A LOSER, YOU ARE WHAT YOU MAKE YOURSELF BECOME !!
WHEN TEXASCOWPUNK TAKES THE PICTURE I WILL HAVE AN AVATAR!!! OIL BABY!!!
I agree.
We are on the brink of being a great team. We all know it… While we have a few holes, I still believe we are a QB away from greatness. If we were able to do it with Pennington, skies the limit with a guy like RG3.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 17, 2012 7:28 AM EST up reply actions
An elite QB didn't help the Packers and Saints last weekend.
But the defenses of the NYG and 49ers sure helped them.
Just sayin’……..
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
True
You could argue that they wouldn’t have gotten that far without elite QB play all year though. The Packers loss really wasn’t Rodgers fault. I believe the announcers were keeping track and counted 8 drops that game…
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 17, 2012 7:25 AM EST up reply actions
Defenses create turnovers.
I used to think I had a drinking problem.
So I stopped thinking.
In some cases...
There were some big special teams blunders in a couple of the games…
In the case of interceptions, those are sometimes created by the passer…
But ya, in general, I get (and agree) with what you are saying.
Answer:
More important than this post makes it out to be.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Just presenting the facts.
It looks as though they are equally important. Brees, Rodgers, and Stafford had lights out type of seasons and they are watching the playoffs from their couches. Still, I would give the slight edge to having an elite QB.
by PhinnyFromItaly on Jan 17, 2012 7:44 AM EST up reply actions
But with the five previous SB winners.
They all included either elite (Rodgers, Brees, Peyton Manning) or top tier QBs (Roethlisberger, Eli Manning) as well. They may not have had the best offenses in the NFL, but they had great QBs that came through. Does Matt Moore or Chad Henne make that 4th quarter game winning drive against the undefeated Pats? Does Matt Moore win a shootout like Brees did against Peyton? Does Moore or Henne play the Roethlisberger role when they hit the game winning TD in the Super Bowl?
Those teams may not have had the best offenses, but they had the very good/elite QBs that willed their team to victory through adversity.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
Darnit...
Meant that as a reply. Another fail!
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
agree, and a few O-linemen , a FS and WR
TO ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE; ONE MUST STUDY,TO ACQUIRE WISDOM ONE MUST OBSERVE !!
YOU ARE NOT BORN A WINNER, YOU ARE NOT BORN A LOSER, YOU ARE WHAT YOU MAKE YOURSELF BECOME !!
WHEN TEXASCOWPUNK TAKES THE PICTURE I WILL HAVE AN AVATAR!!! OIL BABY!!!
Only my opinion
But IMO the elite QB will win you most regular season games by putting up a bunch of points. But when you get to the big show, your going to be facing another top level qb in a one game takes all format, so IMO you better have a good D or your going home without the ring.
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