Fantasy Football Week 4: Start 'em and Sit 'em

I normally try to get these out by Friday afternoon, but I'm a little late tonight.  I think I've had some pretty good success with my picks so let's hope I can keep this up!  I know I picked McCluster as start last week, which he finished with 45 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards on 5 receptions.  He received fewer carries than Thomas Jones (14 to 9), but he did more with his carries.  I still expect McCluster's role to expand over the course of the year.  So without waiting any longer, here are my picks for week 4.

QBs: 

Start 'em:

Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He's done enough to show he's going to put up some good numbers until someone realizes how they're going to shut down the spread offense.  I just don't expect the Bengals to be the defense to do that.  I expect 250+ yards and 2 TDs or more this week.

Matt Stafford.  Stafford is going against an improving Dallas defense which will only get better as they get healthy.  Stafford is showing great improvement though and has one of the best WR weapons in Calvin Johnson.  The Cowboys have been successful against the run, making it even more likely most of Detroit's offense will come from Stafford's arm.

Sit 'em:

Joe Flacco.  Expect the Ravens to attack New York with the running game.  Flacco may get some yards and a TD, but he'll go against a tough defense, depending on how Antontio Cromartie plays.

Sam Bradford.  He's gone against some tough defenses, but nobody on the Rams offense outside of Cadillac Williams and Steven Jackson (on the rare occasions he's healthy).  The Redskins haven't been the best pass defense, but they've done a good job of keeping the QBs out of the endzone.  In two of three games, the opposing team has failed to pass for a score.

RBs:

Start 'em:

Ryan Mathews.  He's been getting much better for San Diego and has been a bigger factor for them, including in their passing game.  He is nursing a foot injury, but will play Sunday.  With Vincent Jackson nursing an injury and Antonio Gates out for the game, Matthews' number may be called more often, but Mike Tolbert will still get the goalline carries.  Matthews could play a big role in the passing game as well as Miami hasn't been the best at covering RBs.

Felix Jones.  I've said his name a few times, but he's let me down.  He finally came through last week with over 100 yards rushing and an added 40 yards in the receiving game.  Detroit has solid names on the DL, but they haven't been stopping the run very well.  With Tony Romo's injured ribs, there is an additional incentive for Jones to carry the ball more often.

Sit 'em:

Thomas Jones.  He's getting the bulk of the carries for the Chiefs now, but he's been extremely ineffective running the ball.  His carries will probably drop as McCluster becomes more involved in the offense.

Shonn Greene.  He's going against a very tough Baltimore defense and Nick Mangold may not be able to play again. Even with Mangold playing, the Jets offensive line has been struggling this year and Greene is averaing a paltry 3.3 YPC.

WRs:

Start 'em:

Vincent Jackson.  This only goes if he is playing, but he did participate fully in Friday's practice.  He's got height and speed and Miami's secondary has struggled.  If Vontae Davis sits again, and he only partly participated in Friday's practice, Jackson will be a nightmare if he gets matched up on Nolan Carroll.

Steve Johnson.  He's Fitzpatrick's primary WR and has been making big plays, having three catches go for 20+ yards in only three weeks.  I don't expect a drop in performance even if he is going against a quality CB in Leon Hall.

Sit 'em:

Mohamed Massaquoi.  Despite being Cleveland's #1 targeted WR despite his injuries, he is catching less than 50% of his passes.  He is going against Cortland Finnegan this week, a good CB, and likely won't bring much value this week in what will probably be a low scoring game.

Percy Harvin.  He was supposed to breakout and replace Sidney Rice, but that hasn't happened and likely won't happen this year,  KC may not have a strong defense, but Brandon Flowers is a very good CB.  Add that with Donovan McNabb struggling to do much of anything in the passing game and the outlook doesn't bode well for Harvin.

TEs:

Start 'em:

Randy McMichael.  He's worth a gamble because Miami hasn't covered TEs very well and San Diego may visit the red zone quite a bit on Sunday.  With Antonio Gates out of action, McMichael will undoubtedly see much more action.

Brandon Pettigrew.  He had a big week last week and I think he will continue to be involved in Detroit's offense.  He has very good tools for a TE and only Calvin Johnson has been targeted more often by Stafford.  Pettigrew has two receptions of 20+ yards in 3 games and makes him an attractive target for big plays.  That is a rare find for TEs... at least if you live in Miami.

Sit 'em:

Anthony Fasano.  He's never been one to put up big stats, but he did surprise some in week one's performance against New England.  He's been a non-factor in the passing game since then.  With a struggling offensive line, Fasano will have to stay in more often to help keep Chad Henne upright.

Brent Celek.  He has very good talent and is a good receiving TE, but teams are instead blitzing Michael Vick more often.  In turn, Celek hasn't been as active in the passing game as he has in the past.  He's been forced to help block quite a bit and has only been targeted 12 times in 3 games.  For a TE that isn't going to put up a huge YPC total, he needs a lot of targets to get quality points.