FanPost

Dolphins Player Stat Projections


Just a fun excercise I'm going to do.  I'm projecting individual stat production for each of our players.  I'll base the projections off of last year's stats, who I think will improve/decline, and how much playing time the player will get.  I'm going to try to use intervals for the stats likw catches, tackles, and yards, so it won't be: "Davone Bess:  73 catches, 818 yards"

 

Quarterbacks

Only one QB is on the field at a time, and in this case it will be Chad Henne.  If Henne plays well and stays healthy (as I'm predicting), the backup QBs won't get hardly any playing time at all.


Chad Henne:
  PASS: 62% compl.  3,900 yards.  22 TDs, 16 INTs.
                          Rush:   150 yards, TD.
Henne will surely be better, with a few new guys to throw to, and another year of practice.  While his accuracy is slightly improved from last season, I see him actually throwing it downfield a bit more, leading to some bigger plays plus some incompletions.  His yard total will be a +500 total from last season, and his TD-INT ratio is much improved from last season's 15-19.  However, he still floats it sometimes and doesn't make the best decisions, leading to 16 INTs, which is middle-of-the-pack in the NFL.

Matt Moore:  Will get very few snaps if Henne stays healthy.  Probably won't be any blowouts (good or bad) this season, so Moore won't take many snaps.

 


Running Backs

The Fast and elusive Reggie Bush looks to be the feature back for the Phins, while Rookie Daniel Thomas is also in the mix. 

Reggie Bush:   RUSH: 180 Attempts. 780 yards. 5 TDs.  4.3 YPC.
                            REC:  40 catches.  410 yards.  3 TDs.
Bush won't necessarily be the "feature back", but will be the starter and spend slightly more time on the field than Thomas.  Bush won't take but 10-15 carries per game, but will make 3-4 catches per game, mostly out of the backfield and occasionally from the slot.  The coaches would probably prefer to use Thomas inside the 10-yard line, but Bush is useful close to the goalline since he can bounce it outside and beat the defense to the pylon.  He will also get a few big-play TDs.

 


(Rookie RB Daniel Thomas)



Daniel Thomas:
   RUSH: 190 Attempts.  760 yards.  5 TDs.  4.0 YPC.
                                REC:  20 catches.  150 yards.  TD.
Thomas will actually get a few more rushes than Bush, being more of a true running back and better between the tackles.  He might also get a few more goalline touches, perhaps leading to more TDs.  Thomas will get some catching opportunities out of the backfield on screens and check-downs (Henne threw alot to Brown and Williams). 


Larry Johnson:  RUSH:  30 attempts. 90 yards.  0 TDs.
                             REC:  6-8 catches.  50 yards. 0 TDs.
Because the nature of the running back position, Thomas or Bush will likely suffer a few minor injuries that could cause them to miss a game or two.  That will give Johnson a few opportunities, but not much.

 

Fullbacks

Lou Polite got cut, and Im sad to see him go.  But now, it's Charles Clay and Lex Hilliard who will serve as the team's fullbacks.

Lex Hillard (also under RB):   RUSH: 40 attempts.  140 yards.  TD.
                                                      REC:  10 catches.  80 yards. 
Hillard will be spending some time at both RB and FB.  If Bush gets nicked up, Hillard would serve as the 3rd down back, getting some carries on draw plays and some catches out of the backfield.  When Bush and Thomas are both healthy, Hilliard will get some snaps at FB and some occasional snaps at RB.

Charles Clay (also under TE):  RUSH:  8 attempts.  30 yards.
                                                        REC:  15 catches.  160 yards.  TD.
Clay won't get but a few carries, but will also be playign TE so will catch a ball per game.

 

Wide Receivers

A deep Wideout group, led by star Brandon Marshall and slot-machine Davone Bess, looks to be solid and consistent this upcoming season, and to help Chad Henne take the next step.

Brandon Marshall:  REC:  85 catches. 1,150 yards.  6 TDs.
Marshall has proven to be a beast in the past, and showed this preseason that he's still a beast.  His communication with Henne should be better next season, and Henne will do a better job of getting Marshall the ball on-time.  Pro-Bowl year for Marshall.

 


(Davone Bess scores a TD vs the Steelers in 2010)

Davone Bess:  REC:  60 catches. 700 yards. 3 TDs.
With Hartline back in the mix full time, Bess' targets will go down by atleast a little.  Bess will get the nod for 2-receiver sets, over Hartline, but when the team uses 3 receivers (which will happen more often than last season), Hartline will be taking some targets and catches away from Bess.


Brian Hartline:  REC:  50 catches.  680 yards.   4 TDs.
Hartline was having a breakout year last season through 11 games (615 yards, 1 TD thru those 11) before it was cut short by injury.  He will be back in the mix, and solidified as the 3rd receiver.  I don't predict Hartline will have the type of season he was on pace for last season because of Davone Bess being ahead of him on the chart, meaning Bess will get the call when there's 2 receiver sets, as well as the team adding Bush and Gates.  Still though, Hartline will have a good year.


Edmund Gates:  REC:  15 catches.  210 yards.  TD.
Gates won't be on the field all the time, but if one guy ahead of him gets nicked up, he'll will be.  Either way, his speed will be useful as a decoy, and he can run some intermediate routes.  I predict he'll get a one TD on one big play.

Roberto Wallace:  REC:  8 catches.  90 yards.
Wallace won't get on the field much at all, but chances are atleast once or twice during the season 2 guys get nicked up during the game, and Wallace gets 20 or so snaps, which he might make something of.

Marlon Moore:  REC: 2 catches.  15 yards.
6th receiver= Even less production than the 5th receiver.



Tight Ends

Miami's tight end group has virtually no experience (and very little talent) behind starter Anthony Fasano.  HBack Charles Clay will be a contributor as a TE.


Anthony Fasano:  REC:  35 catches.  450 yards.  3 TDs.
Fasano's statistical production will be similar to last season (just -70 yards), with a small drop, partly because Bush and Gates are 2 new targets for Henne to look to.  Fasano will still be a reliable TE, and a factor in the Redzone.


Charles Clay (also under FB):  REC:  20 catches. 160 yards.  TD
Clay, a rookie H-back, will also be playing FB.  He'll be a good checkdown option for Henne in the flat or in the middle of the field.


Jeron Mastrud:  REC:  6-8 catches.  40 yards.  0 TDs.
The Phins will probably want to keep 2 "true TEs" plus Clay.  Mastrud is probably the guy for the job, but he won't make much of any offensive impact at all.

 

Tell me what you think.  By the way, I added up the receiving yards and they were close to 3,900 (not exact because for some players I put like 30-40 yards).  And the receiving TDs added up to 23.   I matched up the other stats too, just to make sure nothing was ridiculous.  i.e. the team has about 420 total carries, and last year most teams (including us) were in the 400-450 range.

 

I'll go ahead and rank our team's stats by categories, by my projections, based on all 32 NFL teams last season.

Total Yards per game:  355, good for 10th.

Rushing per game: 114, 14th

Passing per game:  244, 8th

 

And also, adding up all the yards of my projections gave the team roughly 355 total yards of offense per game, which would be 10th in the league last season in the NFL.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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