FanPost

How the Dolphins are doing: from a statistical and objective standpoint

First I would like to say that I meant to make this a few days earlier, but because of college apps I have been severely pressed for time. Depending on the popularity of this post, I may start doing this on a week to week basis.

I comment regularly, but I am not currently a big contributor to the website and I feel like not many of you know me. So first thing first I love statistics. This does not necessarily mean the basic raw statistics (such as QBR, completion percent, and etc) because those do not tell the whole story. I will be using statistics gathered by Football Outsider to make a generalizations of how our team is doing (again it will be all objective). I did NOT make these statistics and all credit goes to Football Outsider, I will just be facilitating the information in a more effective manner.

I will be comparing each player/group to those of the respective group in each of the AFC East teams (although it will not be as in depth).

So without further ado let us start with the most important position on any football team.

Quarterback

Chad Henne: He is the only QB on our roster that has played enough snaps to be judged by Football Outsiders, so he will be the only one looked at in this article.

Football Outsiders compare QB by looking at the DYAR (defense adjusted yards above replacement).

Henne has a value of 150, good enough to make him ranked 15th amongst all quarterbacks.

Henne also has 822 Effective Yards (compared to 811 actual yards) which shows that Henne is throwing the ball very slightly above average

For pure passing this puts Henne in the middle of Rex Grossman (DYAR of 175) and Big Ben (131)

BUT.....

Football Outsiders also look at how rushing yards of QBs

In this Henne is in a very spectacular 1st place. He has a a DYAR of 45 and his Effective yards are 136 (101 actual)

In 2nd is Freeman with a DYAR of 31

Interesting Note:

Vick is in dead last with a DYAR of -21 (his 4 fumbles do not help one bit)

Comparison:

Henne is no where near the elite level of throwing that Tom Brady (DYAR of 625) or Aaron Rodgers (464) are on

AFC East:

Needless to say Brady is the number 1 overall QB and top in the AFC East.
Fitzpatrick is 4th overall with a DYAR of 447
Sanchez is a respectable 13th with 178

Analysis: Henne is a slightly above average quarterback and so far and is about equivalent to about Sanchez. As shown by the rushing statistics, Henne is not the statue we thought he was.

Running Back

Again Running backs are measured in DYAR. I was particularly excited / interested in this section because of Daniel Thomas.

Daniel Thomas:

Daniel Thomas ranks 9th in rushing among all RBs with a DYAR of 51. He has 216 Effective Yards (202 actual)

This puts DT in the middle of Ben Tate (55) and Jones-Drew (42) and ahead of both Ahmed Bradshaw and DeAngalo Williams.

Sadly DT is not ranked in the receiving section because he has not had the minimum number of receptions

Reggie Bush:

Bush is ranked an abysmal 36th (out of 38) with a DYAR of -49 and effective yards of 0 (80 actual)

Bush is ranked 18th in receiving with a DYAR of 23 and effective yards of 105 (71 actual)

Comparison:

DT ranks amongst the top rushers, while Bush is just bad.
Lesean "Shady" McCoy is number 1 overall with a DYAR of 124.
Fred Jackson is 2nd with 97.
Woodhead and Green-Ellis are 16th and 17th respectively
Shonne Greene is 29th, while LT is unranked.

Wide Receiver

Note: Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

Brandon Marshall:

DYAR of 80 and ranked 13th overall. 322 effective yards (302 actual), but a poor catch rate of 53%

In the middle of Nate Washington (85) and Miles Austin (74; his injury does not affect this number).

Brian Hartline:

Ranked a surpring 27th with a DYAR of 48 and 188 effective yds (170 actual), but again a poor catch rate of 56%

Puts him just ahead of Dez Bryant (48) and Steve Smith (CAR, 47)

Davone Bess:

Sadly only ranked a 64, DYAR of -5 and 119 effective yards (186 actual) and again a poor catch rate of 57%

Comparison:

BM is solid so far, not showing his old "special"  self

Hartline is doing surprisingly well this year, while Bess is doing average at best

NE: Welker is 2nd overall (168), Branch at 20th (59)
BUF: Johnson is 5th (104), Nelson is 14th (72)
NYJ: Holmes is 42nd (35), Burress 48th (18)

Our 3 receivers rank fairly well amongst the NFL. These do not take into account the play of the QB, which obviously affects how well a WR does.

Mike Wallace is 1st overall and Devery Henderson is 3rd

Tight End

Anthony Fasano: The only TE on our team to make an impact receiving. Note: blocking is not judged in this

Ranked 21st with a DYAR of 20. 99 effective yards (108 actual) with catch rate of 60%

Comparison:

Gronkowski is the top TE
Dustin Keller is 3rd
Scott Chandler is 7th
Hernandez is 8th

Offensive Line:

Our O-Line ranks a solid 11th overall while run blocking.

Our power running is ranked 13th. We have a Stuffed % (percent of times RB is tackled at or behind the line) of 14% (21% is NFL average). That is good enough for 2nd best overall ! BUT we have a 2nd level rank of 21 and Open Fied rank of 28th

Our main problem, however, is with our pass protection. We are ranked 26th with 11 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 9% (NFL Average of 6.6%).

Now for the most interesting part:

Football Outsiders looks at running the ball at each spot in the O-line and uses Adjusted Line Yards to judge the effectiveness of the O-line in the run (4.00 yards is approximately the average)

At the Left End we rank 6th overaall with a ALY of 5.75. At Left Tackle we are 8th with 4.69. At Mid/Guard we are 10th with an ALY of 4.53. At Right Tackle we 9th with 4.86.

HOWEVER, at Right End we are an absolutely atrocious -3.04. Yes, that negative sign was meant to be there. Needless to say we are dead last in this part. I AM LOOKING AT YOU COLOMBO!

Comparison:

NE is 1st in Run blocking and 4th in pass
BUF is 8th in Run block and 1st in pass
NYJ is 24th in run and 21st in pass

Defensive Line:

I am sorry I do not have time to go in depth, but we are overall at 24th. NE is 30th, Bills at 29th, and NYJ at 17th.

Overall Team:

Our team is ranked 26th overall, with an offense ranked at 9th and a defense ranked at 31st.
So much for our solid defense and poor offense.

Something that really interested me were the "drive stats". Basically the number of yards / TDs per drive.

We rank 6th overall on offense with 35.48 yd/drive but only 0.152 TD/drive (23rd) we also have 0.152 TO/drive (again ranked 23rd)

Defense on the other hand is 28th with 37.12 yd/drive and .273 TD/drive (26). we have 0.061 TO/drive (ranked 30)

Our Net is -1.64 yds/drive, which puts us at 18th overall.

Overall:

We are projected to win 5.4 games, and have a 1.1% shot at making the playoffs (THERE IS STILL HOPE!!!!)

NE is projected to win 10.5 games (T-2nd best out of all teams) and has a 72.6% shot at playoffs
Buffalo is projected to win 10.4 games (4th best) and has a 72.5% shot at playoffs
Jests are projected to win 9.6 with a 52.5% chance

We also have a 9.2% chance of getting the 1st overall pick (just for you Suck 4 Luck fans)

All credits go to Football Outsiders for all these statistics. I hope this was helpful to put everything is perspective for you guys. I will make this a weekly thing if i see that it is popular enough.

Thanks for reading all!!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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