First of all, let me introduce myself, I'm BrasilFin, I rarely post but often lurk around The Phinsider.
I've read and heard a great deal about people's opinions of what Chad Henne brings to the table and what to expect of him and this team with him as the starting QB. What most of us have concluded so far this season is that he has indeed improved from last year and is one of the few bright spots of this whole team right now...I, though, am not here to analyze Henne's play nor his improvements this season. I am here to expose my opinon regarding Henne and the future of the Miami Dolphins QB position, hopefully by the end of this FanPost I will convince you of it.
Bare with me, this is a looong post...
Here's my case:
Chad Henne is not a bad QB...Henne is not a good QB... Henne is simply an average QB and on his good days he might be a tad bit above average. There won't be any fancy statistics (though that will come later) or analytical breakdown of film to back up my opinion. What I can show you though are factual pieces of information that help support my claim.
What are good QB's supposed to do? They rally their team in times of pressure and adversity.. they bring their teams out of the jaws of defeat and secure them a win... or at least something close to a win. Good quartebacks don't consistently commit costly mistakes at the worse of times, and if a teammate does make some mistake, he does everything in his power to make up for that mistake. Obviously, a good QB is not a super hero, he can definitely mess up every now and then, but that is the exception, not the norm. An important attribute that a good QB must have is consistency.
Now I ask you: does that sound like Chad Henne?
Henne has showed us glimpses of those qualities in some games such as a few in the 2009 season which had us hoping for him to become our so desperately needed franchise QB. What I have finally concluded about Henne is that he is the type of QB that needs the whole team (including the defense) to play perfectly for his team to win. Henne alone is not enough to make up for the mistakes of his teammates. He is the type of QB that can play a flawless game until a certain point when someone makes a crucial error, and then he just cannot make up for it. Henne is not a game changer, he is not a playmaker, he does not come up in the big times..
Bottom line: if you want to win with Henne as your QB you have to be damn sure that your team is very disciplined and talented all around.
Now, we are currently sitting at 0-3 and with possibly a very high draft pick. I do not think we will come out with the number 1 pick in the draft, but I do see it as a real possibilty. Sparano's time is running out and if we continue losing he WILL get fired midseason, possibly at the bye. A midseason firing will not put this team on the right track for this season, on the contrary, I believe it will just send the team crashing down. Combine that with a tough schedule ahead of us and we might just be in the Luck sweepstakes.
Ok, so let's pretend all of the above happened and a few months from now the Dolphins have the number 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Will we pick Andrew Luck or trade down, keep Henne and get a slew of draft picks in return?
I believe we MUST take Luck at all costs.
Let's take a look at some facts and statistics that might show us why we must gamble on a top player like him.
Exhibit A: The past teams and their QB's to appear in the last 15 Super Bowls
Super Bowl XLV - 2011 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers
Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers
Super Bowl XLIV - 2010 - New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Drew Brees and Peyton Manning
Super Bowl XLIII - 2009 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals
Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner
Super Bowl XLII - 2008 - New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Eli Manning and Tom Brady
Super Bowl XLI - 2007 - Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Peyton Manning and Rex Grossman
Super Bowl XL - 2006 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks
Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck
Super Bowl XXXIX - 2005 - New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles
Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb
Super Bowl XXXVII - 2004 - New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers
Tom Brady and Jake Delhomme
Super Bowl XXXVII - 2003 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Oakland Raiders
Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon
Super Bowl XXXVI - 2002 - New England Patriots vs St. Louis Rams
Tom Brady and Kurt Warner
Super Bowl XXXV - 2001 - Baltimore Ravens vs New York Giants
Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins
Super Bowl XXXIV - 2000 - St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans
Kurt Warner and Steve McNair
Super Bowl XXXIII - 1999 - Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons
John Elway and Chris Chandler
Super Bowl XXXII - 1998 - Denver Broncos vs Green Bay
John Elway and Brett Favre
Super Bowl XXXI - 1997 - Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
Brett Favre and Drew Bledsoe
I decided to separate the above QB's into 2 categories: Tier 1 and Tier 2
In order to do this I used a certain stat that people don't really like..the QB rating.
While it does have it's inconsistencies, QBR usually is fairly accurate at showing how well a QB has played, more often than not, a good QB does have a pretty good QBR.
The criteria I used is that a Tier 1 QB must have a career QBR of 80 and above and a Tier 2 QB must have a career QBR of under 80. In case you're wondering Henne's career QBR is 75.6 as of now which makes him a Tier 2 QB under this criteria.
Exhibit B: The amount of Super Bowl appearences and wins by each of these QB's
Tier 1 Quarterbacks
Super Bowl Appearences Super Bowl Victories
Brett Favre 2 1
John Elway 2 2
Kurt Warner 3 1
Tom Brady 4 3
Peyton Manning 2 1
Drew Brees 1 1
Aaron Rodgers 1 1
Ben Roethlisberger 3 2
Steve McNair 1 0
Rich Gannon 1 0
Eli Manning 1 1
Donovan Mcnabb 1 0
TOTAL 22 13
Tier 2 Quarterbacks
Super Bowl Appearences Super Bowl Victories
Drew Bledsoe 1 0 (excluding XXXVI)
Chis Chandler 1 0
Trent Dilfer 1 1
Kerry Collins 1 0
Brad Johnson 1 1
Jake Delhomme 1 0
Matt Hasselbeck 1 0
Rex grossman 1 0
TOTAL 8 2
NOTE: Elway actually has a 79.9 career QBR but we'll use some common sense and put the Hall of Famer in the Tier 1 group =P
You may disagree with some of the QB's selected for each of the Tiers such as McNabb or Manning belonging to Tier 2, but overall I think it' pretty accurate. Most importantly I'm pretty sure that any QB on that Tier 1 list is/was a notch or 2 (or a few) better than Henne is right now.
An interesting pattern that we can observe here is that most of the Tier 1 QB's have been to multiple Super Bowls and some even won more than one. The Tier 2 QB's however, have all been to only one Super Bowl most of which they lost.
What we can conclude from all this headspinning information is that GOOD QB'S WIN SUPERBOWLS
In fact, out of the last 15 Super Bowls, 22/30 QB's were from that Tier 1 group which equals a whopping 73.33%
And out of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, 13 were from the Tier 1 group, that is 86.66%
Meanwhile the Tier 2 QB's have appeared in 26.66% of Super Bowls and won a measly 13.33%
What does this all mean? Well, we can either pray Chad Henne improves dramatically and actually starts winning us a few ballgames instead of trying not to lose them, or we need a QB that is capable of doing that.
Again I state, if we are in a position to take the best college prospect to come out of college since Peyton Manning, I say DO IT. All draft picks are gambles, but if we're gonna gamble, let's gamble on Luck.