FanPost

Why Miami is Losing and Not Winning

Right before the season started, I did a fanpost 2 weeks ago where I looked at Miami's win-loss record the past 2 seasons in certain categories. I don't think a lot of people saw it, because it only had 5 comments but had 5 recs somehow. If you want to look at it, here's the link.

  I'm going to look at the first 3 weeks of the season and you guys can realize why we aren't winning this season.

Have at Least an Even Turnover Ratio Each Game

   In my opinion this is the most important one. Our offense needs to sustain drives and not put our defense in short fields where points are almost guaranteed. Our defense needs to force more turnovers so our offense can tire out the opponent's defense and have more opportunities to score. Here is a look at our record the last 3 years when we have a certain TO ratio:

 

 

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

Positive TO W-L

3-2

3-0

 

Even TO W-L

3-1

3-1

0-1

Negative TO W-L

1-6

2-7

0-2

Final Record

7-9

8-8 (PIT Game)

 0-3

 

(Note: I’ll never count that 2010 PIT Game as a loss. Still pisses me off.)

 

  We’re 12-5 when we post at least an even turnover ratio. The one game we did in 2011 it came down to the final seconds and it helped keep us in the game. The problem is that we’ve only been even once and haven’t had a positive TO ratio all season yet. I know it’s only 3 games, but it’s a problem. This chart proves we’re better when we do that. The offense and defense are both accountable for this. The defense needs to start making more turnovers. Did you guys realize the two turnovers we forced this season both led to touchdowns? It’s not a coincidence. Our offense is consistently playing fresh defenses with long fields to go. That needs to change.

Get More Plays for Loss

 

    Plays for loss, or PFL, is just a combination of tackles for loss and sacks. I did this because I think tackles behind the line of scrimmage are just as important as a sack. PFL makes teams more one-dimensional and can also swing momentum in a close game. Here is our record with PFL for the last 2 seasons:

 

 

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

Positive PFL W-L

4-3

6-3

0-1

Even PFL W-L

2-0

0-2

 

Negative PFL W-L

1-6

2-3

0-2

Final Record

7-9

8-8 (PIT Game)

 0-3

 

   Our team plays pretty well when we have more PFL's. Our record is 10-7. When we have less, however, we're 3-11. When we're even the game is a tossup and each team has a chance. This past season, getting sacks on the QB has been a problem. We’ve gotten pressure, but couldn’t finish off the play. McCoy should’ve been sacked at least 2 or 3 times this past game by Wake and others. But due to poor tackling, he was able to escape. Our offensive line has also been atrocious. Henne has been getting nailed and was running for his life. Cleveland had 8 PFL’s for 32 yards against us, 5 of them being sacks.. Miami? 3 for 10 yards.

  The one game where we had a positive PFL we lined up 6 OL most of the time to help Colombo. We also were successful blitzing and caused pressure on Schaub. Miami needs to get pressure more often and be able to protect Henne with only 5 OL, like it should be.

Be Effective on 3rd Down

    Having a high 3rd down % helps sustain drives and keeps the opponent's offense off the field. Last year our offense did a pretty good job on 3rd down, ranking 12th. But according to the table I did, whenever we were lower than our opponent in 3rd down % we almost never won. Take a look:

 

 

 

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

Higher 3rd Down %

7-4

6-3

 

Even 3rd Down %

 

0-2

0-1

Lower 3rd Down %

0-5

2-3

0-2

Final Record

7-9

8-8

0-3

 

      I added 4th down with 3rd down % for the 2011 season, which made the Browns game tied with the Dolphins and made the Texans have a higher efficiency. Again we haven’t had a game where we stay on the field more after 3rd or 4th down than our opponents. We’re 13-7 when our 3rd down % is higher. Even or worse? 2-13. That shows how important it is. The offense has done a poor job staying on when it matters most and the defense can’t get a stop when we need one.

Average More Yards Per Play

       I think this is key because it shows if your team can move the ball better than your opponent. It also factors in "explosive plays" like long passes and rushes for 8+. Yes, I do consider 8 yard rushing plays to be explosive because it puts your team in a favorable position and also keeps the defense on their heels. Lets look at our record the last 2 years in certain AGPP, or average gain per play.

 

 

 

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

Higher AGPP

5-1

3-1

0-1

Even AGPP

0-1

1-1

0-1

Lower AGPP

2-7

4-6

0-1

Final Record

7-9

8-8

0-3

 

    Wow. We’re 8-3 when we have a higher AGPP. Even or lower? 7-17. This past season New England averaged 2 more yards per play against us. We were even with Houston and barely edged out Cleveland, averaging .3 more yards than the Browns. The defense has given up too many chunk plays, while the offense has been inconsistent with theirs. They’ll either light it up and be explosive down the field or play conservative and rarely go deep. I think that falls on the playcalling and how they seem to want to take the foot off the pedal when we’re winning the race. The Dolphins need a killer attitude and the defense needs to limit the opposing offense’s success on us.

Closer Look at the Baltimore Ravens

    In my last post, I looked at the Superbowl winning Packers and their records for the 4 categories. This time we'll look at the Raven's record. I chose the Ravens because I think they have pretty much the same philosophy as our team and they are 2-1, so I wanted to see why they won and lost those games.

 

2011 Ravens

Higher TO W-L

2-0

Even TO W-L

 

Lower TO W-L

0-1

 

2011 Ravens

Positive PFL W-L

2-0

Even PFL W-L

 

Negative PFL W-L

0-1

 

2011 Ravens

High 3rd Down %

2-0

Even 3rd Down %

 

Lower 3rd Down %

0-1

 

 

2011 Ravens

Higher AGPP

2-0

Even AGPP

 

Lower AGPP

0-1

 

 

    Wow. Whenever the Ravens didn't have any of the 4 categories when they lost. When they won they had all 4 of them. This shows that it is legit and if a team wins it's usually because they had 3 or 4 of these categories. 

 

 

Conclusion

          These are proven keys to success for each game that if Miami can do all or even 3/4 of these they are almost guaranteed to win. The Ravens proved this past season that you can win or lose, depending on what categories you do well in. Hopefully Sparano reads The Phinsider and sees that this all he has to do to get a win for this franchise :). Thanks for reading! Please tell me what you think!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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