The Case For Chad Henne and the Long Ball - Part 2

The addition of running back Reggie Bush - both in the run game and the passing game - should help Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne's accuracy numbers.

Don't ever say I don't listen to the readers of the Phinsider.  Since, apparently comparing Chad Henne to the only three quarterbacks that the Dolphins have to face twice every year did not appease the debate over Henne and the long ball, I got comments like these:

There are so many things wrong with this post...  by Altersreality 

Jesus Christ.

How about you set up a chart analyzing Henne with the rest of the league instead of the AFC East which is only known for one QB.

You placed Henne next to mid tier QB and he did not distinguish himself so what does that tell you?

and

WOW! by Truth Warrior 

I’m still waiting for your answer to my post. I didn’t say he had a problem from 1-20 yds. Why post them in your answer? Was it so you could build Henne’s stats up? How did you pick Sanchez and Fitzpatrick? Are they representative of above average QB’s in the game?
It wasn’t fair to Henne to include Brady in the mix either. 4 successful QB’s in the NFL was all that was required. The case for "Chad Henne and the LONG BALL" has still not been stated.

Since I need to pick out 4 "successful" QB's in the NFL (I would have thought a Hall of Famer and the quarterback who has led his team to the AFC Championship game each of the last two years would cound as "successful" but I guess not), here's part two to my Confessions....or to Chad Henne and the Long Ball.

Even though Truth Warrior doesn't understand why I would pick the 1-20 yard passes in my post, I'm going to use them again.  I feel that they show how a QB does in all aspects of his game - not just a random look at one set of completions.  If a QB throws one ball over 41 yards and completes it, that's a 100% completion percentage.  Is that the same as a guy who goes 4-for-8?  No.  So, if I show how accurate he is through all of his throws, it sets up the case a little better.

Not knowing what quarterbacks would "provide the answer to [Truth Warrior's] post," I selected four playoff quarterbacks.  They include Drew Brees, future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning, the common "wish the Dolphins would have selected him instead of Jake Long" Matt Ryan, and Jay Cutler.

Same format as Part 1, but different camparison QBs in the mix this time.

With that, here are the behind the line of scrimmage 

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 50 67 277 74.6 4.13 28 2 0 0 91.4
Drew Brees 105 126 480 83.3 3.81 23 1 2 0 78.6
Peyton Manning 87 96 471 90.6 4.91 27 4 0 0 101.0
Matt Ryan 52 66 276 78.8 4.18 19 2 0 0 94.2
Jay Cutler 49 63 379 77.8 6.02 89 1 0 0 97.0

First observation here is, Brees threw behind the line of scrimmage A LOT! I'm going to assume a good number of those passes were to running back Reggie Bush, which could be a good thing for Henne.  Second things is, Manning is abnormal.  Who has a 90% completion percentage any where? Henne actually falls into fifth place in completion percentage at this range, but he is comparable to both Ryan (2 more completions on 1 fewer attempt) and Cutler (1 fewer completion on 4 fewer attempts) when you really look at it.

For the 1-10 yard range:

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 182 280 1,691 65.0 6.04 57 10 10 0 78.4
Drew Brees 243 336 1,996 72.3 5.94 25 13 6 0 92.6
Peyton Manning 261 351 2,149 74.4 6.12 43 11 2 0 97.6
Matt Ryan 241 309 1,736 69.3 5.62 46 14 3 0 94.3
Jay Cutler 148 214 1,518 69.2 7.09 39 7 4 0 92.4

Once again, we see Henne in last place in completion percentage, but it's not a big jump from Ryan's 69.3% or Cutler's 69.2 to Chad's 65.0%.  Brees and Manning again show why they are some of the top QBs in the league, joining Tom Brady (see Part 1) in the 70%+ completion percentage.

The 11-20 range: 

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 60 103 1,019 58.3 9.89 31 2 6 0 74.0
Drew Brees 74 130 1,238 56.9 9.52 43 10 8 0 89.2
Peyton Manning 79 153 1,282 51.6 8.38 30 8 9 0 72.9
Matt Ryan 78 150 1,329 52.0 8.86 42 8 5 0 86.2
Jay Cutler 51 104 875 49.0 8.41 36 10 7 0 82.0

At this range, Henne actually moves up to first pace in completion percentage.  Both Brees and Manning drop back down to mortal levels, while Cutler actually falls below 50%.

On to the longer ranges, starting with 21-30 yards:

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 6 24 174 25.0 7.25 34 1 1 0 74.0
Drew Brees 15 34 511 44.1 15.03 80 6 1 0 118.3
Peyton Manning 15 53 451 28.3 8.51 73 7 4 0 70.7
Matt Ryan 6 27 143 22.2 5.30 25 2 1 0 58.4
Jay Cutler 8 35 281 22.9 8.03 67 3 4 0 49.5

What surprises me here is how far Manning fell.  Brees continues to stay among the league leaders here (although, Brady was at 52.9% at this range), while Henne falls smack in the middle of this group.

31-40 yards:

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 2 13 86 15.4 6.62 46 0 2 0 15.1
Drew Brees 7 15 315 46.7 21.00 55 3 2 0 93.1
Peyton Manning 8 24 347 33.3 14.46 57 3 1 0 104.2
Matt Ryan 2 4 89 50.0 22.25 46 1 0 0 135.4
Jay Cutler 2 7 98 28.6 14.00 67 1 1 0 79.2

As I said this morning, this is probably Henne's most difficult range.  Interestingly, however, is how little Ryan and Cutler attempt deep passes.

And, finally, the 41+ yard range:

Quarterback Completions Attempts Yards Completion % YPA Long TD INT Sacks Rating
Chad Henne 1 3 54 33.3 18.00 54 0 0 0 81.9
Drew Brees 1 11 57 9.1 5.18 57 0 2 0 9.1
Peyton Manning 0 1 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 39.6
Matt Ryan 2 7 88 28.6 12.57 45 1 0 0 118.8
Jay Cutler 2 7 99 28.6 14.14 59 1 0 0 118.8

Of the eight quarterbacks considered in these two posts, only Mark Sanchez attempted more passes over 41 yards than Brees, and both ended up completing just one.  The completion percentage at this range becomes a crap shoot.  Interestingly, however, the two sure-fire Hall of Famers, Brady and Manning, both failed to complete a pass past 41 yards, with Brady going 0-for--6, while Manning went 0-for-1.

Now, to compare the accuracy of each of the playoff QBs with Chad Henne, here's the associated chart and graph:

Quarterback Behind Line of Scrimmage 1-10 yards 11-20 yards 21-30 yards 31-40 yards 41+ yards
Chad Henne 74.6% 65.0% 58.3% 25.0% 15.4% 33.3%
Drew Brees 83.3% 72.3% 56.9% 44.1% 46.7% 9.1%
Peyton Manning 90.6% 74.4% 51.6% 28.3% 33.3% 0.0%
Matt Ryan 78.8% 69.3% 52.0% 22.2% 50.0% 28.6%
Jay Cutler 77.8% 69.2% 49.0% 22.9% 28.6% 28.6%

Playoff_qb_comparison_medium

From this comparison, it still shows Henne is comparable to even "successful" QBs in the league - unless these guys still don't meet that criteria.  

Once again, does this mean Henne will be great?  No.

Does it mean maybe he isn't as bad as a lot of people seem to want him to be?  Yes.

And, just like I said this morning:

With the addition of Reggie Bush, and Brandon Marshall and Henne working to repair their dysfunctional relationship, Henne's potential could be reached this year.

Hopefully.

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