FanPost

What Should Be Expected From A Dolphins QB

 

I started to research this post prior to the draft.  At first I wanted to point out the many reasons why the Miami Dolphins needed to draft a QB.  But then I backed off on that assessment.  I backed off because what I found led me into another thought process.

 

Everyone knows that the Dolphins finished 7-9 last year.  Everyone also knows basically what Chad Henne’s stats were last year and there have been a number of posts detailing why those stats were what they were.  I don’t want to rehash those debates.  What I want to do was look at the entire league and see if there is any relationship between QB play, making the playoffs, and winning.

 

Below is a chart showing every team, their won / loss record, and the QB with stats that took the majority of the snaps for their team: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

 

 

 

2010 NFL Divisional Standings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

New England

14

2

 

Brady

36

4

65.9

111.0

W

NY Jets

11

5

 

Sanchez

17

13

54.8

75.3

 

Miami

7

9

 

Henne

15

19

61.4

75.4

 

Buffalo

4

12

 

Fitzpatrick

23

15

57.8

81.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Pittsburgh

12

4

 

Roethlisberger

17

5

61.7

97.0

W

Baltimore

12

4

 

Flacco

25

10

62.6

93.6

 

Cleveland

5

11

 

McCoy

6

9

60.8

74.5

 

Cincinnati

4

12

 

Palmer

26

20

61.8

82.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Indianapolis

10

6

 

P. Manning

33

17

66.3

91.9

 

Jacksonville

8

8

 

Garrard

23

15

64.5

90.8

 

Houston

6

10

 

Schaub

24

12

63.6

92.0

 

Tennessee

6

10

 

Collins

14

8

57.6

82.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Kansas City

10

6

 

Cassel

27

7

58.2

93.0

 

San Diego

9

7

 

Rivers

30

13

66.0

101.8

 

Oakland

8

8

 

Campbell

13

8

59.0

84.5

 

Denver

4

12

 

Orton

20

9

58.8

87.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Philadelphia

10

6

 

Vick

21

6

62.6

100.2

 

NY Giants

10

6

 

E. Manning

31

25

62.9

85.3

 

Dallas

6

10

 

Kitna

16

12

65.7

88.9

 

Washington

6

10

 

McNabb

14

15

58.3

77.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Chicago

11

5

 

Cutler

23

16

60.4

86.3

W

Green Bay

10

6

 

Rodgers

28

11

65.7

101.2

 

Detroit

6

10

 

Hill

16

12

61.8

81.3

 

Minnesota

6

10

 

Favre

11

19

60.6

69.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Atlanta

13

3

 

Ryan

28

9

62.5

91.0

W

New Orleans

11

5

 

Brees

33

22

68.1

90.9

 

Tampa Bay

10

6

 

Freeman

25

6

61.4

95.9

 

Carolina

2

14

 

Clausen

3

9

52.5

58.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

D

Seattle

7

9

 

Hasselbeck

12

17

59.9

73.2

 

St. Louis

7

9

 

Bradford

18

15

60.0

76.5

 

San Francisco

6

10

 

Smith

14

10

59.6

82.1

 

Arizona

5

11

 

Anderson

7

10

51.7

65.9

 

Here are some highlights from the ’10 season:

 

  • 13 QB’s had a rating of 90+ (highlighted in blue), only 1 team had a losing record: Matt Schaub and the Texans
  • Of the 14 teams in the NFL with winning records only 3 didn’t have a QB with a 90+ rating:  NY Jets, NY Giants, Chicago
  • Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, only 3 didn’t have a QB with a rating of 90+:  NY Jets, Chicago, Seattle (division winner with losing record)
  • In the AFC only 2 QB’s had more INT’s than TD’s:  Colt McCoy and Chad Henne
  • In the AFC only 3 QB’s had ratings less than 80:  Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, and Chad Henne

 

If you think that is a fluke, here are some highlights from the ’09 season:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2009

 

  • 12 QB’s had a rating of 90+, NO team had a losing record
  • Of the 15 teams in the NFL with winning records only 4 didn’t have a QB with a 90+ rating:  NY Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Atlanta,
  • Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, only 3 didn’t have a QB with a rating of 90+:  NY Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore

 

I looked at the results of the ’10 season and thought, "How did the Miami Dolphins win 7 games with arguably the 2nd worst QB play in the AFC?"  IMO, this shows just how close the Phins are to being a really good football team.  If they had any semblance of quality play at QB, what could they have won? If they had any of the QB’s in the AFC other than McCoy, would they have made the playoffs?  What if this team had the ’08 Chad Pennington?  Here are the divisional standings from ’08 for the AFC East:

 

 

2008 NFL Divisional Standings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

W

L

 

QB

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

 

Miami

11

5

 

Pennington

19

7

67.4

97.4

 

New England

11

5

 

Cassel

21

11

63.4

89.4

 

NY Jets

9

7

 

Favre

22

22

65.7

81.0

 

Buffalo

7

9

 

Edwards

11

10

65.5

85.4

 

Pennington was 2nd in QB rating in the NFL in ‘08.  I think it is this thought process that led to Henne’s benching last year.  I think the Coaching Staff realized that if they could just get better play from the QB, they could be contenders.  I think we can all agree that the Phins of ’10 had much better talent than the Phins of ’08, yet the Phins of ’08 won the division because of quality QB play. 

 

There is one other thing that I want to point out and that is the play of Mark Sanchez for the Jets.  People want to say that Sanchez is the product of a good running game and a great defense.  I don’t think that is entirely the case.  While his regular season stats are similar to Henne’s, let’s look at what he does in big games, playoff games:

 

Mark Sanchez Playoff Stats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'10 Playoffs

 

 

 

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

Wildcard

Win

17-16

Indy

0

1

58.1

62.4

Divisional

Win

28-14

Pats

3

0

64.0

127.3

Conference

Loss

19-24

Steelers

2

0

60.6

102.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'09 Playoffs

 

 

 

TD

INT

Comp %

Rating

Wildcard

Win

24-14

Bengals

1

0

80.0

139.4

Divisional

Win

17-14

Chargers

1

1

52.2

60.1

Conference

Loss

17-30

Colts

2

1

56.7

93.3

 

Sanchez has 4 games with a 90+ QB rating (3 with 100+).  He has thrown 9 TD’s and 3 INT’s.  His record, all on the road, is 4-2.  That is pretty damn good for a QB that many perceive as being a passenger on a team.

 

In conclusion (about damn time right), the Miami Dolphins are real close to being contenders.  They are one position away, IMO, and that position is the QB.  I think that the Coaching Staff and the Front Office realize this.  If the Phins get quality QB play, the odds say that the Phins will have a winning record and make the Playoffs.  Once in the Playoffs, especially with the Miami Dolphins Defense, anything can happen.

 

This post isn’t about Chad Henne.  The ’10 season is over and it is time to move on.  What I wanted to figure out is what type of QB play is needed, for the Phins as a team and franchise, to succeed in ’11.  Based on the last 2 years I would say that whoever the QB is would need to put up these types of stats:  90+ Rating, 8 More TD’s than INT’s, 62% Completions.

 

Chad Pennington (’08) is the only starting Miami QB since Marino to post a 90+ passer rating.  Jay Fiedler (’01 & ’02) is the only starting Miami QB since Marino to post an 80+ passer rating.  That means in 8 of the last 11 years, the starting QB’s for the Phins failed to post an 80+ passer rating.  That’s not good, not good at all, considering 23 QB’s in ’10 and 20 QB’s in ’09 had an 80+ passing rating! 

 

Is it any wonder why the Phins have only made 3 playoff appearances in that time?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of The Phinsider's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of The Phinsider writers or editors.

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