I started to research this post prior to the draft. At first I wanted to point out the many reasons why the Miami Dolphins needed to draft a QB. But then I backed off on that assessment. I backed off because what I found led me into another thought process.
Everyone knows that the Dolphins finished 7-9 last year. Everyone also knows basically what Chad Henne’s stats were last year and there have been a number of posts detailing why those stats were what they were. I don’t want to rehash those debates. What I want to do was look at the entire league and see if there is any relationship between QB play, making the playoffs, and winning.
Below is a chart showing every team, their won / loss record, and the QB with stats that took the majority of the snaps for their team: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating
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2010 NFL Divisional Standings |
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AFC East |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
New England |
14 |
2 |
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Brady |
36 |
4 |
65.9 |
111.0 |
W |
NY Jets |
11 |
5 |
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Sanchez |
17 |
13 |
54.8 |
75.3 |
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Miami |
7 |
9 |
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Henne |
15 |
19 |
61.4 |
75.4 |
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Buffalo |
4 |
12 |
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Fitzpatrick |
23 |
15 |
57.8 |
81.8 |
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AFC North |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Pittsburgh |
12 |
4 |
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Roethlisberger |
17 |
5 |
61.7 |
97.0 |
W |
Baltimore |
12 |
4 |
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Flacco |
25 |
10 |
62.6 |
93.6 |
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Cleveland |
5 |
11 |
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McCoy |
6 |
9 |
60.8 |
74.5 |
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Cincinnati |
4 |
12 |
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Palmer |
26 |
20 |
61.8 |
82.4 |
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AFC South |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Indianapolis |
10 |
6 |
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P. Manning |
33 |
17 |
66.3 |
91.9 |
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Jacksonville |
8 |
8 |
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Garrard |
23 |
15 |
64.5 |
90.8 |
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Houston |
6 |
10 |
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Schaub |
24 |
12 |
63.6 |
92.0 |
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Tennessee |
6 |
10 |
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Collins |
14 |
8 |
57.6 |
82.2 |
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AFC West |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Kansas City |
10 |
6 |
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Cassel |
27 |
7 |
58.2 |
93.0 |
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San Diego |
9 |
7 |
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Rivers |
30 |
13 |
66.0 |
101.8 |
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Oakland |
8 |
8 |
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Campbell |
13 |
8 |
59.0 |
84.5 |
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Denver |
4 |
12 |
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Orton |
20 |
9 |
58.8 |
87.5 |
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NFC East |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Philadelphia |
10 |
6 |
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Vick |
21 |
6 |
62.6 |
100.2 |
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NY Giants |
10 |
6 |
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E. Manning |
31 |
25 |
62.9 |
85.3 |
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Dallas |
6 |
10 |
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Kitna |
16 |
12 |
65.7 |
88.9 |
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Washington |
6 |
10 |
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McNabb |
14 |
15 |
58.3 |
77.1 |
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NFC North |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Chicago |
11 |
5 |
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Cutler |
23 |
16 |
60.4 |
86.3 |
W |
Green Bay |
10 |
6 |
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Rodgers |
28 |
11 |
65.7 |
101.2 |
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Detroit |
6 |
10 |
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Hill |
16 |
12 |
61.8 |
81.3 |
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Minnesota |
6 |
10 |
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Favre |
11 |
19 |
60.6 |
69.9 |
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NFC South |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Atlanta |
13 |
3 |
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Ryan |
28 |
9 |
62.5 |
91.0 |
W |
New Orleans |
11 |
5 |
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Brees |
33 |
22 |
68.1 |
90.9 |
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Tampa Bay |
10 |
6 |
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Freeman |
25 |
6 |
61.4 |
95.9 |
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Carolina |
2 |
14 |
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Clausen |
3 |
9 |
52.5 |
58.4 |
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NFC West |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
D |
Seattle |
7 |
9 |
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Hasselbeck |
12 |
17 |
59.9 |
73.2 |
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St. Louis |
7 |
9 |
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Bradford |
18 |
15 |
60.0 |
76.5 |
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San Francisco |
6 |
10 |
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Smith |
14 |
10 |
59.6 |
82.1 |
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Arizona |
5 |
11 |
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Anderson |
7 |
10 |
51.7 |
65.9 |
Here are some highlights from the ’10 season:
- 13 QB’s had a rating of 90+ (highlighted in blue), only 1 team had a losing record: Matt Schaub and the Texans
- Of the 14 teams in the NFL with winning records only 3 didn’t have a QB with a 90+ rating: NY Jets, NY Giants, Chicago
- Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, only 3 didn’t have a QB with a rating of 90+: NY Jets, Chicago, Seattle (division winner with losing record)
- In the AFC only 2 QB’s had more INT’s than TD’s: Colt McCoy and Chad Henne
- In the AFC only 3 QB’s had ratings less than 80: Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, and Chad Henne
If you think that is a fluke, here are some highlights from the ’09 season: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2009
- 12 QB’s had a rating of 90+, NO team had a losing record
- Of the 15 teams in the NFL with winning records only 4 didn’t have a QB with a 90+ rating: NY Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Atlanta,
- Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, only 3 didn’t have a QB with a rating of 90+: NY Jets, Cincinnati, Baltimore
I looked at the results of the ’10 season and thought, "How did the Miami Dolphins win 7 games with arguably the 2nd worst QB play in the AFC?" IMO, this shows just how close the Phins are to being a really good football team. If they had any semblance of quality play at QB, what could they have won? If they had any of the QB’s in the AFC other than McCoy, would they have made the playoffs? What if this team had the ’08 Chad Pennington? Here are the divisional standings from ’08 for the AFC East:
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2008 NFL Divisional Standings |
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AFC East |
W |
L |
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QB |
TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
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Miami |
11 |
5 |
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Pennington |
19 |
7 |
67.4 |
97.4 |
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New England |
11 |
5 |
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Cassel |
21 |
11 |
63.4 |
89.4 |
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NY Jets |
9 |
7 |
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Favre |
22 |
22 |
65.7 |
81.0 |
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Buffalo |
7 |
9 |
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Edwards |
11 |
10 |
65.5 |
85.4 |
Pennington was 2nd in QB rating in the NFL in ‘08. I think it is this thought process that led to Henne’s benching last year. I think the Coaching Staff realized that if they could just get better play from the QB, they could be contenders. I think we can all agree that the Phins of ’10 had much better talent than the Phins of ’08, yet the Phins of ’08 won the division because of quality QB play.
There is one other thing that I want to point out and that is the play of Mark Sanchez for the Jets. People want to say that Sanchez is the product of a good running game and a great defense. I don’t think that is entirely the case. While his regular season stats are similar to Henne’s, let’s look at what he does in big games, playoff games:
Mark Sanchez Playoff Stats |
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'10 Playoffs |
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TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
Wildcard |
Win |
17-16 |
Indy |
0 |
1 |
58.1 |
62.4 |
Divisional |
Win |
28-14 |
Pats |
3 |
0 |
64.0 |
127.3 |
Conference |
Loss |
19-24 |
2 |
0 |
60.6 |
102.2 |
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'09 Playoffs |
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TD |
INT |
Comp % |
Rating |
Wildcard |
Win |
24-14 |
1 |
0 |
80.0 |
139.4 |
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Divisional |
Win |
17-14 |
1 |
1 |
52.2 |
60.1 |
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Conference |
Loss |
17-30 |
2 |
1 |
56.7 |
93.3 |
Sanchez has 4 games with a 90+ QB rating (3 with 100+). He has thrown 9 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His record, all on the road, is 4-2. That is pretty damn good for a QB that many perceive as being a passenger on a team.
In conclusion (about damn time right), the Miami Dolphins are real close to being contenders. They are one position away, IMO, and that position is the QB. I think that the Coaching Staff and the Front Office realize this. If the Phins get quality QB play, the odds say that the Phins will have a winning record and make the Playoffs. Once in the Playoffs, especially with the Miami Dolphins Defense, anything can happen.
This post isn’t about Chad Henne. The ’10 season is over and it is time to move on. What I wanted to figure out is what type of QB play is needed, for the Phins as a team and franchise, to succeed in ’11. Based on the last 2 years I would say that whoever the QB is would need to put up these types of stats: 90+ Rating, 8 More TD’s than INT’s, 62% Completions.
Chad Pennington (’08) is the only starting Miami QB since Marino to post a 90+ passer rating. Jay Fiedler (’01 & ’02) is the only starting Miami QB since Marino to post an 80+ passer rating. That means in 8 of the last 11 years, the starting QB’s for the Phins failed to post an 80+ passer rating. That’s not good, not good at all, considering 23 QB’s in ’10 and 20 QB’s in ’09 had an 80+ passing rating!
Is it any wonder why the Phins have only made 3 playoff appearances in that time?