Beware of the Running QB.

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 1:17 PM EDT

As all of you well know, one of the most electric athletic talents is probably going to be the first pick if the NFL draft. He has a strong arm, he is big and tall, and is an elite runner. Nevertheless, be weary, running QB's have a deplorable history in the NFL.

When evaluating a running QB and how he might translate in the NFL, you must ask yourself "is he successful because he is a great athlete or can he be successful without his unique athleticism.??" A QB in the NFL that relies strictly on his athleticism is doomed to fail for a few of reasons. 1.) his unique ability in college is no longer unique in the Pro ranks. 2.) He wont be athletic for his whole career and 3.)He is going to get hurt. Yes its just that simple, the franchises most important player cannot be barreling over linebackers consistently. He eventually has to be able to effectively read coverages stand in the pocket and deliver within the confines of the "SAFE ZONE". In the NFL once you break contain (your outside the tackles) you become legal fresh meat.

This is not to say that a mobile QB is not preferred over a statue; in fact I prefer my QB to be able to break contain, freeze the linebackers and buy some time to get receivers open down field. Nevertheless, beware of fools gold. That same QB must be as effective in the pocket to be a viable long term option for a team. Lets take Daunte Culpepper as an example, the man was playing at a torrid pace the first five years of his career, granted he had Randy Moss, yet in 2005 before he got injured he was playing effectively without Moss. Daunte had the unique ability of breaking contain and delivering the ball down filed with accuracy. Nevertheless, he was a below average pocket QB with bad pass rush awareness, small hands, and a long delivery. Once he lost his ability to break contain effectively he became an ineffective QB.

Another more recent example, Michael Vick, once again a universal physical talent. There is no better QB on the planet when 100% healthy. What he did this year was absolutely AWESOME!!! His ability to Paralyze linebackers and safeties was unmatched and led the Eagles to a division win, But his athleticism began to diminish as the season wore on due to nagging injuries to his legs. As the injuries accumulated his effectiveness diminished. His QB rating dove to a pedestrian 73 his final regular season game, and he posted a 79 in the playoffs. If Vick cant run he is a mediocre QB.

My last Example is BIG BEN. Big Ben is unique in that he is a mobile QB but not necessarily fast, yet dangerous enough with his legs that teams must account for his mobility. Big Ben fractured his foot last year and although his numbers suffered to a certain extent he was still an effective QB in the pocket, taking his team to the Super Bowl for the third time.

When evaluating a QB you need to first evaluate his pocket presence and decision making and consider his unique athleticism as added bonus not the be all end all in your evaluation.

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That will always be the risk with taking an extremely athletic QB.

In college, you can beat tight coverage by turning into a running back and making plays with your feet. In the pros, you need to be able to fit the ball into tighter windows to beat that coverage. It’s nice to have the athleticism but, even nicer to have the accuracy as well. A lot of the athletic QB’s have hidden that deficiency with their athleticism at the college level. But, it is a lot harder to hide at the next level.

by rocktosr on Apr 26, 2011 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

100%

I think you are exactly on the money. A running QB in the NFL

by JImbo111 on Apr 26, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

oops

going to be hurt, the question is only how long before that happens. I’d MUCH rather have a mobile, smart qb with an accurate arm than a running qb, or even the qb with the great arm who has accuracy problems. I it said, better a hit with a .22 than miss with a 44 mag.

by JImbo111 on Apr 26, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Newton ran less on designed pass plays in college (8%)

than Aaron Rodgers did in the pros (9%).

Would you classify Rodgers as a running QB? Probably not. Newton is perceived as a running QB because there were a ton of designed QB runs in his offense. He wasn’t taking off because he’d rather run than pass, he was taking off because the play was designed for him to run. The OL was run-blocking, the RB’s were blocking, the WR’s were blocking. On designed pass plays (where you separate a running QB from a passing QB), Newton threw the ball on 92% of those plays.

Now, would a run-first QB throw the ball on 90+% of pass plays? I think not. Newton wasn’t a “run-first” QB like people think. He was a QB and a RB in Auburn’s offense. In the NFL, if you don’t design a run for him, he’s not going to be tucking and going at every turn. He scrambles to throw. His athleticism is a huge plus because he doesn’t lean on it to be successful. He beat good teams last year throwing the football, when he was unsuccessful on run plays.

The difference between Newton now and Vick when he was drafted is Vick dropped back looking to immediately escape and make a play, either by taking off or running around until somebody came open. Newton already is on “mobile NFL QB” level of running, waiting for the play/pocket to break down before escaping.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
Leader of the Draft Cam Newton Bandwagon

by Little Nicky 21 on Apr 26, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I agree with you there,

But at this point it’s doubtful that Newton falls to us haha

Daily Phinsider reader since its creation.

by Rytackle on Apr 26, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

There are designed QB runs and then there is also designed read QB runs.

A designed QB run is called in the huddle and the QB is essentially a RB on that play, just like you said Nicky.

A designed read QB run is a progression in the passing game. Henne’s reads last year in the passing game was basically primary WR, secondary WR, check down.

Some coaches in college will have their QB in the passing game make a progression read of primary WR, secondary WR, run. It is coached. If you watch game film, or even highlight film, of Jake Locker I think you would see this type of coaching. There aren’t any check down receivers in a lot of those plays. There aren’t a lot of intermediate routes. It was a push the ball down the field offense and if the WR’s were covered, it looked to me that Locker was told to run.

Newton, Kap, Locker were not running QB’s in college. They were QB’s that were asked or were taught to run. There is a difference. I don’t look at any of these QB’s in this draft as a run first QB like Vick was at Virginia Tech.

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by ct1361 on Apr 26, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree BUT

Yes its true and your observation is very astute. But realize that Cam Newtons offence was effective because of the dual threat. The fact that the play was called for him to run vs pass is inconsequential, what made him effective was the threat of him running, whether it was a called play or not. Aaron Rodgers had very few plays in which his number was called to run, his running was predicated upon the pass rush and his ability to avoid it. Cams running is a designed play call. Furthermore, Cam ran a read option offense in which he has the choice to effectively be the running back or the QB further making your point moot. Nevertheless, I don’t question Cams ability, I’m pointing out that for him to be effective in the NFL he needs to be a GOOD pocket passer or else he will eventually fade into disappointment.

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

There aren't any run-pass options..

the only “option” part of Auburn’s offense was the zone read, which is a run play. He’s either giving it to the other back, or keeping it for himself. At no point is a pass involved in most of those plays. On the plays where he sells the zone read, then steps back to throw, it’s a designed pass play. The OL is in a pass-pro set, the WR’s are on routes. VERY rarely will an offense have a play designed to be a run OR a pass, because every single player on the offense has a different job on runs vs passes. If the OL run blocks, and the QB decides to pass, it’s an Illegal Man Downfield, or the QB is getting killed by a backside player running free (who normally would be unblocked in the run scheme). If the OL pass sets, and the QB runs, nobody is creating running lanes, and the OL is allowing penetration. Do you know what a pocket looks like to a running back? A trap. Not a good strategy.

I’m not making moot points. I don’t make moot points.

But realize that Cam Newtons offence was effective because of the dual threat. The fact that the play was called for him to run vs pass is inconsequential, what made him effective was the threat of him running, whether it was a called play or not. Aaron Rodgers had very few plays in which his number was called to run, his running was predicated upon the pass rush and his ability to avoid it. Cams running is a designed play call.

That first sentence is a GREAT reason to draft the guy. Because he’s deadly, and the defense has to assign players to not only rush him, but to spy him if he escapes. It’s the same thing with Rodgers (who is a dual threat QB because he will take off), Vick, Big Ben, and the rest of the dual threat QB’s. It’s tough to defend, because there is a guy who has to be assigned to a “maybe.” If Newton never runs, that LB is still going to be spying, which is neither pass rushing nor covering. Essentially, you are playing 11v10. Huge advantage.

Yes, Cam’s runs were designed. At the next level, there won’t be NEARLY as many designed runs. So the run threat comes from him escaping the pocket, same as Rodgers and Vick and the like. His unique size and ability allows us to run Wildcat-style running plays without having to switch personnel and give it away. The corny draft commercial actually makes a good point about Newton, saying he “adds pages to your playbook.” And I believe that he will be able to adjust to the NFL passing game, because he has made NFL-style reads in Auburn’s offense, and he has the physical attributes to get it done. He won’t have a problem seeing the defense, he won’t have a problem getting the ball out on time, in rhythm, and accurate, and he won’t have much of a problem dealing with pressure.

Your comment doesn’t do a very good job of arguing against Newton. I feel like the kid has an unlimited ceiling, and the only question marks are things I, or anyone else on this blog, can know. The questions around him are of his character and his ability to mentally handle the QB position at the next level. Nobody can predict that, and we won’t know until he actually does it.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
Leader of the Draft Cam Newton Bandwagon

by Little Nicky 21 on Apr 27, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Good Post...

I agree – give me a statue at QB like BRADY, OR MANNING any day over some great athlete….

41 Year FIN FAN
Franchise QB... NOW !!! ...Draft Ryan Mallett ...Draft some Freakin speed for a change. WR & RB speed kills......

by 62Lou on Apr 26, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

Being mobile at QB is NOT a drawback, it is an advantage.

There are a couple of assumptions that you make that are false.

1) The majority of QB injuries occur inside the pocket not because of a QB running.
2) An athletic QB will always be an athletic QB. Donovan McNabb is still a better athlete than Chad Henne even though he is 10 years older.

Now, to be an effective QB in the NFL you have to make plays in the pocket. A QB has to read the defense and deliver the ball quickly and accurately to the WR. But, really good QB’s have to be able to extend plays too. They have to avoid the rush. Some do it outside the pocket like Roethlisberger and Rodgers. Some do it in the pocket like Brees and Manning. But just because those players extend plays in the pocket doesn’t mean that they aren’t athletic, they have very quick feet, it just means that they aren’t fast. There is a difference.

I have more concerns with Gabbert and Mallet in this draft class than just about any other QB because I don’t see the foot quickness needed in the NFL. Yet these two are the classic pocket passers. I don’t see them effectively avoiding a rush, resetting their feet, and delivering the ball quickly and accurately. At least not at the speed in which the NFL game is played.

by ct1361 on Apr 26, 2011 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Never stated that QB's get injured more outside the pocket.

I simply stated that RUNNING QB’s, QB’s that rely on their legs to be effective cannot afford to get injured. Donavon is or was an extraordinary player because he was as effective in the pocket as he was scrambling. I also wasn’t making a point to point comparison, off coarse McNabb is more athletic than Henne, but he isn’t more athletic than he was when he came into the league. McNabb is not a good example as a counter point because he WAS/IS effective in the pocket and at reading coverages. You cannot rely on your athleticism to play the QB position in the NFL, when do you see Brady and Manning break contain??Never!! and they are the best.

“I have more concerns with Gabbert and Mallet in this draft class than just about any other QB because I don’t see the foot quickness needed in the NFL”

I’m no draft expert, but I will say that I watched 5 Arkansas games and 4 Mizzu games last year. I agree with you Gabbert concerns me, but not because of his quickness but because of his tendency to feel pressure that doesn’t exist. That reeks of bad pocket presence. As for Mallett, yes he is a scare crow back there, but his pocket presence is the best out of the class, when he perceives danger their is true danger. He is a passer that will look down field until the last second, a quality that makes Brady great. Scout have said that he is not an accurate QB under pressure, I cant argue the numbers don’t lie, but I will say that his perception of pressure is seconds later than most QB’s in college or in the NFL, to a certain extent his inability to RUN makes him an effective down field passer because of his focus. i.e. Dan Marino. <<Blasphemer.. (please don’t argue the last point I realize how ridiculous it sounds.)

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Mallet and Gabbert don't have the foot quickness that I would want in a QB.

They are slow in the drop, a lot like Henne. Guys like Marino, Brady, Manning, Brees and so one are slow but they aren’t slow in their drop. They get to there depth quickly with the proper foot placement and deliver the ball quickly. That is what makes them so good.

Being slow in the drop affects the way you see the field and your read. It affects how quickly you get rid of the ball. You can have the best arm ever. You can be the most accurate passer in history. But if you cannot get to your drop quickly, read the defense and make a quick decision, those other things don’t matter.

Mallet and Gabberts slow feet scare me.

by ct1361 on Apr 26, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

NFL QB's in shotgun 75% of the time.

First of all, I disagree that their slow in the drop, their just isn’t enough empirical evidence to suggest such a claim, both those QB’s were in shotgun more than 80 percent of the time during passing downs. And second, in this league the drop back is going the way of the DODO bird, QB’s were in shotgun more than 75% of the time during passing downs. Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers… they all make a living in shotgun formation. No drop back necessary. I don’t know how old you are but I saw Dan Marino’s whole career and his drop back was painfully slow, its one of the reasons they never had a good running game, he couldn’t get the ball to the running backs quick enough. The dolphins had to institute a quick slant attack with quick undersized receivers to mimic a running attack not unlike the Patriots.

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

75% on passing downs. That doesn't include pass attempts on 1st and 10.

I’m 40. When Marino entered the league, he got into his drop very quickly. After some knee issues and after tearing his achilles, he slowed down a bit.

Watch the pro days highlights for Mallet and Gabbert. On a 5 step drop throwing an 8 yard out, the QB needs to be at depth and release the ball prior to the WR making his break. Neither Mallet or Gabbert were making that throw. And that was throwing to WR’s who probably won’t make an NFL roster. Everything speeds up in the NFL.

After you watch Mallet and Gabbert pro days, put on the Newton / Gruden QB camp show on ESPN. Gruden actually tells Newton at one point to get more depth on his drop. Newton was able to do it consistently after that and still make the throw prior to the WR’s coming out of their breaks. That is the difference between Newton and Gabbert / Mallet.

It was said that Dan Fouts could complete an 8 yd out on a five step drop blindfolded 7 out of 10 times. It was said that even blindfolded, he would get to his drop and release the ball in the same time that he would do it in a game. It was said that he would even adjust the throw, blindfolded, depending on who was running the route.

Being able to execute the drop from center quickly, getting the depth required, and releasing the ball quickly is still very important despite the prevelance on the shotgun.

by ct1361 on Apr 26, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree on Newton

hey if the Dolphins can get Newton Im all for it believe me. But thats not going to happen, I believe that if you can do it in the SEC at a high level you probably can do it in the NFL. Mallett stats in the SEC were spectacular for a pure passer who has no mobility. Mallet is second best QB in this Draft and the Dolphins are in the market for a QB. I guess I somewhat agree about his slow drop back but not enough to pass on him if he is available. ct1361 you seem to be very knowledgeable, and im know very intrigued on the validity of both are arguments. Nevertheless, I feel the dolphins have a strong team without a QB, and I feel that Mallett is going to potentially be our best option in years to solidify the position for the future. I could be wrong. I’m curious what the scouts said about Brady’s drop back??

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

So If you are right . I guess we are in trouble with tim tebow .

by broncosfaninphilly on Apr 26, 2011 6:26 PM EDT reply actions

YEP!!

I will say though Tim Tebow is a very smart player, I saw him play for Florida every game and I wouldn’t ever count out that kid. Also, he wasn’t a bad pocket QB he just needs time to develop under an NFL scheme. Tim Tebow was a running QB but on passing play he stood in the pocket with gusto and poise and usually threw the ball before paninking and relying on his legs to save him. The kid is a winner, smart, a leader, courageous, and football smart. With patience he can be a Very Good QB not great but you can WIN BIG with him.

by Daniel Suarez on Apr 26, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Tebow

he’s got maybe the best work ethic in the league. Those guys don’t fail. He may never be a great QB, but he’s not going to allow himself to be a bust. And the guy has a metric shit-ton of talent. I think if he cleans up his mechanics a bit (quicker release, shorter step are the biggest issues IMO), and picks up the NFL playbook (shouldn’t be a problem, he’s smart and committed), he’ll be good.

Phinsider HOF C/O 2009
Winner of Six Career Matty Awards
Leader of the Draft Cam Newton Bandwagon

by Little Nicky 21 on Apr 27, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions