Oh the Phinsider we debate everything right down to the anatomical level when it comes to football. We generally stand firm on our opinions. There always seems to be a big divide. This off season we've debated strongly about Henne and what to do about the qb position in the draft. (Do we go first round or do we wait until later for a backup/value talent?) I've notice a trend in our QB discussions. Draft "This Guy"; We should draft this player but if he's gone we should draft "This Guy"; We should stick with Henne but if we are going to use a high pick on QB we should draft "This Guy". "This Guy" is getting some love around these parts which is a hard thing to do. Why do most of us like him? Does that mean something?
"This guy" is Christian Ponder. So what do we think of Ponder's value? It's almost certain he will be there at 15, meaning we should get a shot at him. What do you think is his highest fair value before you consider it a reach? Do we take him at 15? Is that really a reach? and where do you think he will likely go?
There are about 10 teams ahead of us that could use an upgrade at QB. Of course some teams have a bigger need for a QB than others. Also, there are about 10 prospects that don't play QB in the draft that could have a top 10 grade. Yet QB is the most important position. So there are two ways I see this draft playing out.
1. There is a run on QB's in the first round with teams taking the highest ceiling prospect (Newton, Gabbert, Locker and Mallet) regardless of their question marks before us. That leaves about six teams still looking to upgrade that position in the second. But at least the most desperate QB needy teams will be satisfied.
2. Teams pick the best player available which includes two QB's before 15 (Newton Gabbert) in the first. Then there will be a run on QB's in the second round. Some of the QB needy teams will trade up to get the player they want. At least one will trade back into the first.
-I think the second one is the most likely to happen.
So what do we do with the 15th pick? Most like the idea of trading back and getting a second round pick. Some say trade down and get Ponder with our acquired second round pick. If we acquired a second round pick it will be in the lower third of the round. So the problem with that is that is Ponder will likely be gone by our second round pick in both situations. Therefore, if we want Ponder we will have to use our first. Now comes the hard part. How far back do we trade if we determine Ponder is our guy? We have to be careful another QB needy team doesn't jump ahead of us. Another question is should we even trade back? Is there a good reason to risk it if the FO is sold on Ponder? If he's there guy, then that should mean he is worth it regardless of what the "Web" mock boards say.
For me I would be ok with Ponder at 15. There's another QB that intrigues me more that should be there at 15. But I don't have the tools to say he is worth that pick because of his question mark. That's Ireland and co's job to figure out.