From what I have gathered, reading people's comments, their hate, their resentment, everyone wants to win now.
I am here to give you a scenario that would lead us to winning the super bowl in 2012 (because there is going to be a lock out next year). I am going to have to preface this with the fact that I am an eternal optimist, but I don't believe the scenario I am about to outline is too unbelievable. I am making a few assumptions here but again they are logical.
(very quickly I assume we will trade down and get a second rounder. [you mad Cam Newton fans?] simply because this is how to win the super bowl next year not how to get the next over hyped bust)
I think you guys should understand how close we really are.
Our defense is there. At least statistically. We were for the most part a pretty young defense who choked in the bigger games (lions game comes to mind). It's chill though our Defense is incredibly talented and maybe with 1 more CB and Safety we will probably have the best defense in the league.
Some people like to discredit how important defense is in football. I am here to tell you that the old adage is correct. Defense does win championships. You need a defense in order to win championships; but not in the conventional way. Step into my little portal
Let's look at the green bay packers.
First of all they had a great Defense even statistically. 2nd in points and 5th in total yards
They were also 2nd in the league in Int's (24 New England having 25)
Interceptions you see are incredibly important for a defense. They are the game changing plays that win games for you. Look at New England they had a horrible defense but played well throughout the season because of their defense being incredibly opportunistic. The packers obviously have a great Qb but that defense definitely helped them win the NFL championship.
Let's look at the 2009 Superbowl Winners the Saints of New Orleans.
Now here is how I can drive this point home.
The saints weren't a great defense. They were 20th in points allowed and 25th in total defense.
They had the QB and the offense to back it up, which would seemingly support the cries here of drafting a "franchise" QB (lol at Cam Newton being a franchise QB). Now the offense is obviously important; but as I will argue later it doesn't just come from the QB. But for now back to defense.
The saints were 3rd in the league in Int's with 26 Int's. Seemingly every game a INT would go their way that would break open the game for them (dolphin game comes in mind dat Ted Ginn). Ints are incredibly important in fact they are more important than actually having a good defense. ESPECIALLY in the postseason. Now had they dropped their INT's they probably would have made the Superbowl and interestingly enough an Int sealed the Superbowl for them.
Lets go back one more year broteps. 2008
Super bowl contestants of that year The Steelers of Pittsburgh and the Cardinals of Arizona. Besides the racist backgrounds these two share their defenses were very effective. The Steelers were 1st in the league while the cardinals were 19th in the league. The stealers have always been known for their defense that is just a given. The stealers were 1st in defense and 6th in the league in int's (they had 20 keep in mind there were 3 teams in 3rd place with 22)
How did the 8-8 cardinals even get to the playoffs? Let's chalk that up to how bad the NFC west is. Now how did the 8-8 cardinals make the Superbowl? Was it their Kurt Warner and their slew of great receivers. Yes. But just like the saints of 2009 a surprising stat rears it's ugly head. In the post season they had an insane 9 Int's. That is around 2 a game throughout that post season. That is how they actually got to the Superbowl even though they were 8-8 on the year.
See in the playoffs Defenses aren't really judged by their yards. In the playoffs and throughout the regular season the most important stat your defense can accumulate are INTs. This year we were 28th in the league with 11.
Remember all those dropped INt's? Those were potential game changers. Imagine if we had actually caught our INT's. We probably would have made the playoffs to be quite honest with you.
So now that I have hopefully convinced you of how important Int's are let me tell you why I believe we have the defense. This year, very frankly, our young defense choked many, many times. They were great statistically and they will continue to be. Our secondary is very young from Vontae Davis to Chris Clemons our youth is very well documented. (this is where the optimism comes in play) I believe that the ability to catch passes and make those game defining INTS will come with time with experience. I believe we can get those necessary INTS this year. (I could also talk about how Koa Misi will be going into his second year and how we just got more depth at the defensive end position but I'll spare that).
The point is Our defense is solid and if we can catch those INTs we have a Superbowl caliber defense. The type of defense that can subsidize a not top 5 QB.
Now onto the more debated and notorious side of our team. Our offense.
I'm not going to hold back anything. What I am about to say will make many dolphin fans irate with rage and they will probably disregard the rest of my post. Well screw them broteps, because if you aren't going to give the players on your team the benefit of the doubt, and not even try to defend them with some conviction you don't deserve to be a fan.
Having said that though lets start with something slightly less controversial.
3 facts that I Believe to be undisputed about the Miami Dolphins offense.
1. Our offensive line ranged from barely average (minus Jake Long obviously) to horrible throughout the year. Especially in run blocking and the pass protection began deteriorated after 6 or so games. (The run blocking was horrible and the pass protection was at times above average, [but only at the beginning of the year]
2. Our running backs ranged from pretty bad to horrible. Just pure numbers. Some might say that their numbers were bad because of the o-line which is beyond reasonable. But you can't argue that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are spring chickens anymore or that they have the necessary speed anymore.
3. Our play calling was absolutely atrocious. Now part of it is due to the players, Henning’s system is predicated upon running the ball and being conservative. We didn't have a run game. Our Qb kept on turning the ball over. His philosophy was doomed from the start.
Now I’ll continue this by giving a truth that I guess is disputable but a very hard sell against.
A. If we divide our offense into 4 categories (Receivers, QB, Running backs, Offensive Line) they would rank like this
1. Receivers (barely they didn't play spectacularly to be quite honest besides Davone Bess)
3. Running backs
4. Offensive Line (running backs and Offensive line can be interchanged)
What does that mean. The receivers were better at their position than our qb's were. Our Qbs were much better at their positions than our running backs or our Offensive line.
I let myself get off track a bit. This isn't about the state of our offense but how we can fix it. Lets go from the bottom up.
Left tackle check.
Left Guard? Incognito I have him moving to center because he was pretty effective (we need someone to fill the void)
Right tackle? serviceable though I would want an upgrade. (Vernon Carey can't handle speed rushers)
Center? Joe Berger was horrible at the point of attack and we definitely need an upgrade. (Richie Incognito sliding over to center seemed to work until he got injured)
Right Guard? upgrade needed but of course John Jerry could get better.
Ok so we definitely need to get one offensive lineman because besides Jerry we have 0 upside. Now if we get Logan Mankins our right guard need would be solved and Jerry could slide to left guard or center. The only problem is that you can't always just move offensive linemen as if they were the same type of player. I can't tell you the intricacies of the O-line but I assume that Right guard is different from Left guard. Thus we are going to have to draft a center/guard. Pouncey, Witskenski (the kid from Penn State).
With Jake Long at LT, Pouncey/ Richie Incognito at LG, Witskensky Richie Incognito at Center, Mankins at RG, Carey at RT. We have probably the best O-line in football. So now we have the O-line and the defense.
Now someone will be thinking (assuming you have read this far) wait Mr. 2102, How can you be so sure that the O-line prospects won't bust? Well, let me tell you something sonny. We can never be sure whether or not a prospect will bust, The qb's may bust, the running backs may bust.
BUT here is an important distinction. Draftology isn't complete bull manure. There is a science and there are trends to spot. The fact of the matter is, assuming how good the prospects are at their position, the Qb's in this draft are not as good at playing QB as The offensive linemen are at playing O-line or the running backs are at playing RB.
At best even if we don't trade down we are only getting the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft, while we may get the best center/guard/ running back in the draft. In that sense we are getting a better player with the same pick. Mark Ingram is the best running back in the draft while Cam Newton is the 80th best QB in the draft ( I kid I kid 3rd but you see my point).
Man I got side tracked again. I REALLY REALLY REALLY don't want to go into the draft anymore back to how to win the Superbowl. anyway so we've got the defense and the Offensive line.
Let's go to running backs. If Mark Ingram falls to us lets get him. But if not we should look at Mikel Leshoure he looks really good and I can't really go into why he will be great. So many people assume you can just find a good running back anywhere so here is a running back from anywhere. (other possibilities are Micheal Bush Deangelo Williams. )
So we have the Running back the Offensive line and the defense. I honestly think our receivers are good enough so I'll leave that there. A speedster may or may not help but our receivers will probably play better from the slump they were in this year.
Let's get down to the nitty gritty.
I'm going to start saying Chad Henne now. Why? Because he is the starting QB of the Miami dolphins and is the best QB we have on the roster. I'm sorry but Tyler Thigpen is not relevant (not going to address it not even worth my time) I have complete confidence that he will be a great QB in this league, especially as long as he is a Miami dolphin. For I am a Miami Dolphin fan and I will root for our players as long as they are playing at an effective level.
Let me just say this Chad Henne can win us a Superbowl. He is better than Mark Sanchez, he has never had the running game or the offensive line that Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan have had and he has been effective enough. If we get him those pieces he has more upside than any QB we can get in the draft. The increase in his effectiveness as far as a good system, offensive line, good running backs, and maturity is much better than the upside we get from a rookie qb. Offense is more than just a QB. You need those other pieces especially for a young QB. Whether we get Cam Newton or not our QB isn't going to be effective alone. Without the pieces I outlined our Qb will be alone.
(All things equal assuming it is the exact same Henne next year. [even though that is ridiculous considering that he is only a 3rd year QB] He will put up better stats with a better offensive line and weapons around him]
I guess to drive my point home I have to explain a few things. There are 2 things that "franchise" young qb's have in common. A run game and an offensive line. When a QB doesn't have those things the weight of the offense falls onto them. Couple that with a horrible system and our defense not being able to grab INTS it is very difficult to win games. Flacco and Ryan have never had to run an offense by themselves with virtually no help from their running backs.
Interesting trend In the 1st 6 games when our running game was horrible but our Offensive Line could pass protect Henne had pretty solid games. Including a career high against the Jets. We should have beaten the Steelers, We had a special teams meltdown against the Patriots. We had a poor showing against the Ravens (as a team). He even played well against the titans. After our O-line basically began dying off his bad side really really showed. And since our O-line were even worse run blockers Henne had to carry the team with an injured knee and no run game.
But it's ok right at least he has his alpha receiver and his great receiving corps? Well not counting the at (at least) 4 int's that were a result of WR slipping (we need to get a new equipment manager) Mr. Marshall had 11 drops. (source http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232&year=) Now every Qb has to suffer from drops. But with no incredible deep threat and Brian Hartline being injured Henne had a lot working against him. But again I'm sure this was just a down year for our receivers and they have the talent to bounce back and become elite next year.
I could use 20 pages talking about why Chad Henne is effective ( I haven't even brought up his stats yet). But I won't. This post isn't about Henne. This is a mildly optimistic view as to how to win the Superbowl next year obviously this will take some luck so here is one assumption I forgot about.
Dabbol isn't a horrible Offensive coordinator and these pieces work out. But here is the most important point I must make.
Let me say this we are not winning the Superbowl next year with a rookie QB. We have a chance with Chad Henne but we have absolutely no chance with the rookie qb's in this draft.
1. The rookie qb's in this class honestly aren't that good
2. They might have some upside, but, they are projects that will take at least 2 years to develop.
Now let me dispel the perceived notion that rookie qb's can be effective enough to take teams to Superbowls. It has never happened. Even rookies that have landed on good teams fail in the end (Mark Sanchez) because it takes a veteran to really take charge and make the throw that is necessary to win in the playoffs. Can Chad Henne make that throw? I can't say for certain and neither can you. I can say this though; Qb's Mature, they get better, especially if they have only been in the league 3 years. And I can say with the utmost certainty that a Rookie Qb can't do it. It has never happened. Ever.
IF we want to win now our best chance is to do it with Chad Henne.
SO now we have all the pieces the QB, the Offensive Line, the Defense, and the running backs.
Here is the best part about my little plan. Lets say Chad Henne is the worst QB of all time and we lose all of our games even with a great young nucleus as far as Running Back and O-line. So we have the number 1 pick in the draft and we get Andrew Luck. Awesome we now have our franchise QB, so what’s the difference between drafting a QB this year as opposed to next year?
First as I have mentioned before this years QB class is really bad. The top Qb's in next years class Luck, Barkley look like great franchise Qbs.
Second and more importantly. If we draft a QB this year we are putting him in a situation to fail. We have no run game. We have don't have a good offensive line. All of the rookie qb's that have looked good recently have had good running games or have played in a horrible division. The rookie QB we would get would not look spectacular and dolphin fans would be calling for his head.
If we don't draft a rookie QB (Cam Newton) we have a chance to win the Superbowl. But if we do.... We have 0 chance. I honestly would like to try and win next year and have a nice insurance plan for the future.
If we have those pieces (fairly possible to attain them) we have a super bowl caliber team broteps. And that concludes my post.
P.S. Dat passion
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