I was looking at the game logs for Henne and saw that there was something that caught my eye. It was the difference in performance before and after three injuries. The injury to Henne that should have sidelined him for the rest of the season, the injuries to the OL and the injury to Hartline.
Before Henne's injury
Completions 195 Attempts 305 Completion % 63.9 Attempts / Game 34 Yards 2140 Yards / Game 238 YPA 7.01 Touchdowns 9 TD / Attempt 2.95% Interceptions 11 INT / Attempt 3.6% TDs / INT .81 Average of QB ratings 80.9 S.D. 15.4 Median of QB ratings 82.3 IQR 18.8 Since the Average is less than the Median, it seems like the data is skewed to the left. I made a histogram of the data and it seems like the QB rating from the BAL game is separate from the rest of the data. But is only just over 2 S.D.s from the mean, so it is only unusual. (Those last four aren't usual stats, but I thought it would be interesting to see them.) QB Rating 79.3 http://www.nfl.com/help/quarterbackratingformula
1.695 + 1.00 + .590 + 1.473 = 4.758 After the Injury
Completions 106 Attempts 185 Completion% 57.3 Attempts / Game 31 Yards 1181 Yards / Game 197 Yards / Att 6.4 Touchdowns 6 TD/ Att 3.24% INTs 8 INTs / ATT 4.10% Tds / INT .75 Avg of QB ratings 63.5 S.D. 28.6 Median of QB ratings 65.1 IQR of QB ratings 49.1
Since the Average is less than the Median, it seems like the data is skewed to the left. I made a histogram of the data and it seems like the QB rating from the OAK game is separate from the rest of the data. But is only just just over S.D.s from the mean, so it is only unusual. (Those last four aren't usual stats, but I thought it would be interesting to see them.)
1.365 + .846 + .649 + 1.294
QB Rating 69.2
As you can tell, Henne's production dropped significantly after his injury. Also, it should be noted that this injury was very serious and he probably should have been IR'd If he was able to keep up the same production before his injury throughout the season (which wouldn't be unrealistic given that the hardest part of the schedule was the first half). He would have done: Completion % = 8th best YPA = 16th (Tied with Brees and Farve) Yard/ game = 14th QB Rating = 24th Yards = 3808 (extrapolated over a 16 game season) = 9th
Before Hartline's injuryThe only difference in this over what is above is the OAK game.
Completions 212 Attempts 335 Completion % 63.3 Attempts / Game 34 Yards 2447 YPA 7.3 Yards per Game 245 Touchdowns 11 TD / ATT 3.28% INTs 12 INT / ATT 3.58% TD / INT .92 Average of QB Ratings 82.9 S.D. 16.6 Median of QB ratings 82.6
1.664 + 1.076 + .657 + 1.479 = 4.876 QB Rating = 81.3
After Hartline's Injury
|
Completions 89
Attempts 155
Completion % 48.1
Attempts / Game 31
Yards 854
YPA 5.5
Yards per Game 170.8
Touchdowns 4
TD / ATT 2.58%
INTs 7
INT / ATT 3.78%
TD / INT .571
Average of QB Ratings 56.2
S.D. 24.8
Median of QB ratings 58.3
.905 + .625 + .516 + 1.246 = 3.292
QB Rating = 54.9
I think the biggest impact Hartline had was Henne's YPA. I think this is just more evidence that Hartline is a big play WR that can stretch the field.
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