Miami Dolphins Unrealistic Playoff Chances
The Miami Dolphins have won their last two games, after seven losses to open the season, and suddenly playoff talk to popping up all over the place. Yesterday, Omar Kelly took a look at the AFC Playoff picture, trying to predict who would win the four divisions and the two wild card playoff spots.
I figured, this morning it was my turn to look at the AFC playoff picture, and see if the Dolphins have an unrealistic shot at pulling off a miracle.
Kelly related something Dolphins linebacker Karlos Dansby said:
"I went to the Super Bowl at 9-7 so it can be done," Dansby said, referring to a 2008 Arizona team that lost four of its last six games, but made it to Super Bowl XLIII, which the Cardinals lost 27-23 to the Steelers.
"Guys are believing in it," Dansby said, referring to the team's altered approach. "We're coming in week in and week out trying to get better. We have an opportunity to right the end of this season."
So, would it be possible for the Dolphins to win out, and somehow claim a wildcard playoff berth?
First, a look at the Dolphins remaining schedule. The Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, a game Miami can win. The Bills have been hit by the injury bug recently, and aren't looking as strong as they did early in the year.
Immediately following that game, the Dolphins have a Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas, reuniting about 653 players and coaches with the Cowboys. Again, this is a game the Dolphins could win - particularly if Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo plays like - well, Tony Romo. The Dolphins defense has been stepping it up (seven weeks too late guys, but thanks for playing) lately, and if they can continue that string, they should be able to force Romo into some mistakes.
With the semi-bye week, after a Thursday night game, the Dolphins host the Oakland Raiders. The Radiers seem to be finding a groove with Carson Palmer at the helm, and should be preparing to win the AFC West - but they are beatable. If Miami can come in with a solid game plan, and play up to their talent level, a win here is possible - particularly with the game being in Miami, meaning the Raiders have to travel from the west coast to the east.
Week 14 could be a problem for the Dolphins. The "Dream Team" Philadelphia Eagles come into Sun Life Stadium with a ton of talent - but haven't been able to put it together yet this year. Now, there are reports that Vick played the entire game last Sunday (save for the first two offensive snaps) with two broken ribs. And, Vick looked like a player playing with two broken ribs. Depending on how quickly Vick can heal, the Dolphins could be facing Vince Young instead of Vick - which would be a bonus to Miami. Again, a lot of things have to fall the Dolphins way - but in this fantasy land, why not assume the Dolphins could pull this off.
The last three weeks of the year give Miami no breaks. But, the Dolphins also know their opponents incredible well. Miami head north to Buffalo in Week 15, meaning a snowy December 18 game against the Bills. Then, they turn around and play another snowy game in Foxboro against the New England Patriots. Finally, the Dolphins finish the year at home against the New York Jets. If everything falls into place for the Dolphins, these three games could be the determining factor in a Miami playoff hunt.
So, if Miami sweeps their last 9 games, and somehow walks away with a 9-7 season, would that be enough for a wild card spot?
Running down the 16 teams of the AFC, the current standings look like:
1. Houston Texans (7&3) - Arian Foster can't go, sure the Texans can still win. Foster's back, but Andre Johnson can't go, sure the Texans can still win. But, now, Matt Schaub is out for the year, and Matt Leinart is the Houston starting quarterback. They are completely capable of falling apart and either squeaking into the playoffs, or missing altogether.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (7&3) - Should win the AFC North.
3. New England Patriots (6&3) - Should win the AFC East. They have the easiest schedule from now to the end of the year, so the number one seed in the AFC should be their's.
4. Oakland Raiders (5&4) - Should win the AFC West.
5. Baltimore Ravens (6&3) - The Ravens haven't looked like a dominating, sure to make the playoffs recently, but they should be able to put it together and find the first wild card slot.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6&3) - A great start to the season, but will drop rapidly as the tougher teams on the schedule start reminding Cincinnati they are starting a rookie quarterback and a rookie wide receiver.
7. New York Jets (5&4) - Could they claim the last wild card position? Sure. Could they completely collapse and find themselves out of the playoffs? Sure.
8. Buffalo Bills (5&4) - A very talented team, but I think they are coming back to Earth after their hot start. I wouldn't be surprised if they still become the doormat of the AFC East.
9. Tennessee Titans (5&4) - If the Texans do collapse, the Titans will take the AFC South. But, with Atlanta, New Orleans, and Houston still on the schedule, 9&7 might be the best they could hope for.
10. San Diego Chargers (4&5) - Might be on a bigger nose dive than the Colts. This team is a mess, and doesn't seem to know how to get out of the funk. Baltimore, at Detroit, and at Oakland to finish the year should finish the Chargers playoff chances.
11. Denver Broncos (4&5) - The Tebow magic can't continue forever. Jets, at Chargers, Chicago, New England, at Buffalo, and Kansas City should ensure the Broncos don't have a playoff prayer.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (4&5) - The Chiefs lost to the Dolphins and the Broncos over the last two weeks, so it's not exactly like they've been dominating the league. And, now, it looks like starting quarterback Matt Cassel is out for the year with a injured throwing hand. The Chiefs are out of the playoff hunt.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3&6) - At least they finish the year playing the Colts again. Otherwise, it's going to be a rough outing the rest of the way.
14. Cleveland Browns (3&6) - Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh twice to go. At the best, the Browns are looking at 6-10.
15. Miami Dolphins (2&7).
16. Indianapolis Colts (0&10). Ruled out of the playoffs when Peyton Manning went under the knife.
With those thoughts, the AFC playoffs should end up looking like:
1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Raiders
4. Texans/Titans
5. Ravens
6. Jets/Texans/Titans/Dolphins
Is it a long shot? Of course it is. Is there any chance I actually think this will happen? Nope. Miami is going to drop at least one of these next 7 games - and probably several. But, it doesn't hurt to hope. And, I know I will be rooting every week for it to happen.
And, as Lloyd says in the all-time classic Dumb and Dumber, "So, you're telling me there's a chance...."
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I think you overrate the Eagles.
I think they are a really beatable team even with Vick because they cannot stop the run at all. That being said, the Dolphins are also a really beatable team and I expect them to finish 4-12 or 5-11.
Fun to dream...Fun to have this talk about playoffs.
Because we’ve been preparing to look towards next year and its refreshing. I’m not saying anything that no one else has already thought of or have said. So why say it? Yea. Well, Miami can’t lose another game to even get in the discussion. I’m all for winning…but this organization better wrap there head around throwing the entire shopping list to get one of the top 2 QB’s. Luck or Jones. If they plan on doing so…he’ll let ride this train.
by Phins4life2334 on Nov 16, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
There's always a chance
Just like there’s a chance a super model will fall in love with me when I walk out of my dorm tomorrow. Do I think it’ll happen? Nope. Do I still hope? Damn right.
Daily Phinsider reader since its creation.
Henne Beleiver '12....oh wait...never mind
I think it is more of a possibility than most expect!
This team hasn’t been soundly beaten in any game aside from SD when Henne went down. IMO, bad ref calls and no calls cost us 2 or 3 games and the others were just big mistakes at the worst moments.
Looking at the standings and major winning and losing streaks, I would say the lockout definitely contributed to our 0-7 start. For the 1st time, Reggie Bush is looking like the) people expected him to become in college and our defense is hitting stride. I predict an 8-8 season with T.S. Keeping his job.
by mjams on Nov 16, 2011 5:40 AM EST via mobile reply actions
thats the worst case scenario
Admiral of the RGIII "Robert Griffin," silver medal battleship of the luckfleet
Daniel Thomas for 2012 pro bowl
Green Bay OC Joe Philbin for HC.
All hail the mighty brandstater, the true qb god
by AnishB15 on Nov 16, 2011 8:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Totally agree
That is my biggest fear for the 2nd half of the season, not making playoffs but winning enough games to have this regime stick around. I have no faith in them even drafting a 1st round QB.
Do not fear
At the end of this year you will see a major change in the Dolphins the only thing that would save this team is winning the Super Bowl. The QB class is deep this year, play the teams that are sucking it up right all have great QB except Jacksonville. So if a team drafts luck that has a great QB already try getting that QB Sam Bradford has been talked about in the league of being a high class pro already.
If colts draft Luck that leaves Too High talented players with big egos, look at Peyton Manning being pissed, and wanting some extreme demands, Dolphins execs, would be smart to swooping in and picking up Mannings existing contract, have a rookie learn under Manning for four years and then we have are future QB
i'm afraid of bears
big ones that are hungry
"My cats breath smells like cat food" a wise man once said...
My love for THE MIAMI DOLPHINS is unconditional...period!
I will never "Suck for Luck" !
Win for pride, Win for us fans!
by Phinphinatic on Nov 16, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
they were soundly beaten by the jets
"The first thing I do when I get out of bed and feel the jolt in my knees is think of Roy Winston. On the second step, my calcified Adam's apple starts bobbing, and I think of Carl Eller. A few more steps in the dark and it's Willie Lanier. By the time I get to the bathroom, I'm flashing back to Dick Butkus and Ray Nitschke. And when the light finally comes on, I just hope that somewhere in the darkness they're thinking of me, too" - Larry Csonka.
He played before my time but one of the toughest SOBs to ever play!
by Strange on Nov 16, 2011 12:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
they were soundly beaten more by Brandon Marshall's fall out of bounds, don't try very hard for catchable passes
and that horrendous non-pass interference call on the 100 yard interception return.
The bad gameplan and poor coaching didn’t help much either…but they were competitive
BM_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ JL VC RI [MP] JJ TE _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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the Wildscat Formation (SC) with FB = LH/DT/CC and SC = Bush/Slaton/Bess
by DolphDallas on Nov 16, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Dansby
needs to be drug tested. because he must be high if he thinks we can make the playoffs! no Kurt warner and no Larry on this team. And no marshall doesnt even come close, because he cant find the endzone! I like the confidence, but lets be realistic!!! we probably wont even sniff are mark the last two years 7-9!
Funny how Marshall found the endzone in Denver.
Damn the sheriff, Bring on MARSHALL LAW
by fin4three5yrs on Nov 16, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Marshall wasn't a TD machine in Denver
Had had only 1 season with double digit TD’s (10) his final season as a Bronco. BM # of TD’s as a Bronco 2,7,6 and the before mentioned 10. That’s an average of 6.25 a year. That’s not bad nor is it great.The last 4 games the entire team has played well. He might be able to get 4 or 5 more before season end.
Another misconception is his dropped passes. While he may drop a lot of balls he also has a lot thrown his way. From percentage stand point his pretty. Take a look at this chart you’d be surprised who right there with him. http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/
"If you are what you say you are, you wouldn't have to say it."
"It's OK to be a follower, as long as you're following the right leader." – Smithology
"You Play To Win The Game" - Herman Edwards
by NawlinsPhinFan on Nov 16, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
one game at a time...
just win them one at a time!
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the Wildscat Formation (SC) with FB = LH/DT/CC and SC = Bush/Slaton/Bess
by DolphDallas on Nov 16, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Dansby conveniently left out the part where his 9-7 team won its division. Miami has 0.000001% chance of doing that. Check back in 3 weeks when that percentge has become zero regardless of what we do.
He also left out that his 9-7 team won a division that sent a 7-9 team into the playoffs last year or that last year’s 4 wild card teams averaged 11 wins. It’s nice to dream but that dream will become a nightmare if we end up drafting outside the top 7 in each round.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
No way in hell do we make the playoffs!
(Secretly hoping I am wrong) lol!
Jimbo
by Dolphinator on Nov 16, 2011 8:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions
You're writing off the Bengals a bit early.
Did you not see Cincy run neck and neck with Pittsburgh last week? Or bother to notice that their remaining schedule includes 2 games with Cleveland, a road game against the Rams and a home game against the Cardinals? All Cincy has to do is beat Cleveland both times and win 1 of those NFC games and they will have us beat on tie-breakers even if we managed to end up with the same record. To not include them with the Texans/Titans, Jets and Dolphins for that last spot is a mistake.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
playoffs is a dream,...
But beating Buffalo is certainly a possibility. They do that,…I’ll be happy. For now,….
Marching to the beat of a different drummer since 1965...
by Ohiofinfan4life on Nov 16, 2011 8:53 AM EST reply actions
One step at a time, brother!
That’s all we need to worry about…. Let’s beat the Bills and go from there.
The way they're going, I'm not sure if the Jets will be alive in the playoffs by then
but yes that would be cool to do that to them again
Great post Mosul!
But, It ain’t going to happen.. as long as we play tough we should win MOST of our games but i see us going around 6-10. We’re playing good ball but 0-7 is just TOO BUG of a hole to crawl out of. If we finish the season playing well, we will probably have some confidence to build on next year, probably with a new HC and a new QB under center.
I’m thinking we go 4-3 and finish 6-10, draft 5th and get Landry Jones.
Laces out!
Editor of the Wildcat Weekly after every Victory
-2008 AFC East Champions-
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
Tom Brandstater- more TD's than completions. Last person to tell him that's not possible, well, nobody has seen him since.
TOO BIG
although it looked like our players caught a BUG the first 7 games!
Laces out!
Editor of the Wildcat Weekly after every Victory
-2008 AFC East Champions-
BRANDON MARSHALL- FUTURE MIAMI HOF WR!!!!!
Tom Brandstater- more TD's than completions. Last person to tell him that's not possible, well, nobody has seen him since.
I was about to write the same thing ... except I see the Phins going 5-11 for the year and getting the 5th pick in the draft.
I hope that Landry Jones in there at #5. I have my doubts about that but he has been my favorite QB all along.
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron." THE DUDE (The Big Lebowski)
I see the same record as you and draft position
I’d prefer if they draft Matt Barkley there instead of Jones. Just something about Pac 12(10) qb’s as opposed to Big 12 qb’s in the NFL, and I just like what I see out of Barkley.
Here is an interesting stat ... No QB from the Big 12 or Southwest Conference has ever been in a Super Bowl let alone won a Super Bowl.
Think about that for a second. One of the big time college football conferences has never had a QB play in a Super Bowl. The closest player to even be considered for that would be Vince Ferragamo who QB Nebraska in the 70’s for the Big 8. But he transferred from Cal because he couldn’t beat out Steve Bartkowski.
http://football.about.com/cs/superbowl/a/sbquarterbacks.htm
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." MACBETH
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron." THE DUDE (The Big Lebowski)
Rest assured, I believe we'll get either Barkley or Jones in this draft
Both have their strengths and weaknesses, but I’d be thrilled just to have one of them in a Dolphins uniform.
Commander of the "Matt Barkley in 2012" Death Star. My bandwagon will laser yours into oblivion. Just ask Alderaan!
That is a little surprising to me.
I don’t think that sways me even more in favor of Barkley over Jones, but it is a very interesting stat that I almost find hard to fathom.
I think that we have to hope that the Texans win their division. At 7-3, they only have to win two more games to assure that they would beat us even if we win out. With games against Jacksonville, Carolina, Cincy, Tennessee, and Indy still on the schedule, even without Schaub, I think it is unreasonable to expect them to not win two games.
Other than that, you sold me. 9-7 and the hottest team in the playoffs. And once you make the playoffs, especially if you have momentum, anything can happen ;-)
Jim Mora voice:
“What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game. "
Miami's Superstars: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Jake Long, Karlos Dansby, Cameron Wake, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith (just wait), Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez, and Hanley Ramirez. :)
by finzrule on Nov 16, 2011 10:24 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I dont have problem with dream about play offs
but is not intelligent toignore what’s comming up… specially these 2 visits against Bills and Pats… are a lot probabillity to play this games in snow… and thats not good for our team.
about the game against Dallas love your quote:
Again, this is a game the Dolphins could win – particularly if Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo plays like – well, Tony Romo.
Against Raiders and Eagles I think too this will be 2 hard Games.. The Raiders looks very dangerous at this moment with Palmer looks better week by week, and the Eagles will come hurted in his ego… and tying to demostrate they are a good team, maybe they dont made the playoff too, but this palyers belive en Andy Reed like our player belive in Sparano… wil be a hard game
Ha I love the optimism
but realistically I don’t see this team winning too many more games…our best chance is probably this week against Buffalo. I don’t like our chances at Dallas or at home against the Raiders. Who knows what Eagles team shows up so that one is kind of a toss up. After that I could easily see us going 0-3 to finish the season. I guess what really sucks is all of the close losses we have that we probably should have won….we could be right in the thick of the playoff hunt if not for those.
Also, my best friend is a Bengals fan so I’ve watched them play quite a bit, to completely discount them is wrong, they have a much better shot at a playoff spot IMO than the Titans, Jets, or Miami.
NOSTRADAMUS PREDICITIONS ??
quatrain 9-7:
" lOOk for the FISH to rise in the year 2011-12 ! "
I’ve said this before " i believe the dolphins will finish the season
at 9-7 and will play the NYjets the last game of the year ( in miami )
for the last PLAYOFF spot !!
That would be quite the Hollywood story. Especially if we then win @ Houston to get our first win against them in their first playoff game. That would make up for ALL the losses to them over the years.
" lOOk for the FISH to rise in the year 2011-12 ! "
Sounds more like a reference to the Miami Marlins and their payroll.
NY Jets = NFL's Chicago Cubs
There's a fine line between hopeful and desperate. Just look @ Jets fans.
by TheFinReaper on Nov 16, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Lol, now there is a dream.
The Marlins are known to be quite frugal in their payroll expendetures. Even in the year they won the world series, they did it with a low payroll.
As for the fins, and my predictions, it all depends on 3 things:
1. Can Matt Moore continue to manage the QB spot?
2. Can Reggie Bush stay healthy with his bigger role.
3. Which Defense will show up. The one from earlier in the season, or the one from last year?
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Nov 16, 2011 12:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'll add another really big one...will Brandon Marshall play like a beast...
or a mistake-prone diva?
Coaching will be a huge factor…like an aggressive offensive game plan, but Marshall is talented enough to carry on flawed team on his back if he would JUST DO IT
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the Wildscat Formation (SC) with FB = LH/DT/CC and SC = Bush/Slaton/Bess
by DolphDallas on Nov 16, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
One game at a time...
Lets focus on beating a reeling Bills team this week… They would finally be a semi-legit team to beat. Lets face it, the Chiefs and Redskins are terrible. So lets see if we can put the wood to Buffalo this week, and then we can start thinking about Thanksgiving. Play-offs are so far down the road that the players (Dansby) shouldn’t even be concerned with that right now. Although, it is good to hear their confidence.
Actually, the Redskins are in the same boat as us
Minus the Marshall thing, truth is, their defense looks better on paper. Even without Berry.
Last year they were a solid team, i dont know what happened, but it seems they should be a better team, even with Beck at QB.
by dolphinfan4lyfe on Nov 16, 2011 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think there's no chance we make the play-offs
I’m also sure that most people on this site believe the same. However, it adds more excitement to watching the game knowing that there is that slightest litle chance that it could happen. Especially when with every win our chances lower for picking up the “All Mighty Andrew Luck”.
That being said: my Super Bowl will be us having the chance to knock the Jets out of playoff contention on week 17.
damnit
this is the first comment to reference Luck… to bad
and technically we do have a chance statistically.
"My cats breath smells like cat food" a wise man once said...
My love for THE MIAMI DOLPHINS is unconditional...period!
I will never "Suck for Luck" !
Win for pride, Win for us fans!
by Phinphinatic on Nov 16, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
9-7 - what about Payton Manning as a dolphin
Great… But division is too tough, they need at least double digit win before playoffs could be in the conversation, if theygo 9-7 this team would be on its way to greatness… However Moore I think his KC game was a fluke he looked below average against the skins. We need a consistent new QB.
Hands down Luck looks to be going to the colts issue with that is Mannings contract and Luck and Mannings Ego, there is no way that they will both play for the same team and sit. So dolphins could pick a great QB, pick up Mannings contract and have the Rookie learn from Manning.
No, too old and don't know if he can recover from his 3rd neck surgery.
J-E-S-T-S SUCK, SUCK, SUCK.
I always take life with a grain of salt, plus a slice of lemon, and a shot of tequila
Riding Shotgun on the Landry Jones bandwagon!
Manning's contract can be optioned out of and renegotiated
Peyton already told Polian he is fine with Indy drafting a QB in the first round as well. I don’t think the contract or Manning’s ego will prevent anything.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider
in every dolphin players mind
they are saying, how the hell did we lose to denver and cleveland??? Those 2 teams are ultimately going to take us out of the playoff hunt. But, we are going 9-7
Fins
Will finish 7-9. That’s just how the Fins roll…
"It was good to get banged and give a few bangs." - Jonathan Cheechoo
9-7 and into the playoffs
we’ll call it the miracle on 88 mad dog lane ! awwwwright miami !
founding member of the dolphins really old bastards fan club GO PHINS... TO THE GRAVE BABY!
I REALLY want to believe...
However, Im far too realistic to see this happen. Would I like to see it happen? Hell yes. Win lose or Draw PHINS UP!

This is Team Teal. Sharks and Phins.
Cut me open and I bleed Teal...
Just a reminder, fans, comin’ up is our "Die-hard Night" here at the stadium. Free admission to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Dolphins won a Super Bowl. -Mosul_DolFan, Phinsider.com
Marc Emery ... the Big Bad Bogeyman ... who offered natural seeds that could potentially become a non-toxic, non-addictive, highly beneficial 12,000-year-old plant. Where are the victims? Where are the bodies? "Justice Minister" Rob Nicholson and his ilk should be the criminals imprisoned.
it will not happen.
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.
Miss the misery.
Need a reason for a change.
Need a reason to explain.
So turn it on again.
Don't change your mind.
You're wasting light.

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